MLB Predictions: American League

When was the last time the Junior Circuit was deemed to be inferior to the National League? While the AL is seen as the bastion of offensive baseball, the NL is stuck with the defense/pitching stigma. The AL has not lost an All-Star game since 1996 and since the infamous strike year of 1994, they have won 9 of the 15 championships. The two anchors of the league are of course the Yankees and Red Sox. One only need look at the opening game of the season this Sunday to see who gets the most attention. While the AL East gets most of the press, there should be tight races in every division this year. AL stabs in the dark after the break.

AL East

1. Yankees: Despite the fact that there is pressure on the Yankees to win every year, I think the title last year took a lot of weight off this team's back. A-Rod is pretty much as blatant and irresponsible steroid and HGH user but after smacking a home run in his first game back from hip surgery, belting one to beat the Red Sox, and finally producing in the playoffs all is forgiven. It is amazing how many people blurted out the phrase "true Yankee" in regards to him. Andy Pettitte has put his own HGH trouble behind him. Sabathia and Burnett don't have to answer questions about coming up short. Joe Girardi can flash his ring in any beat writer's face. On the field they unloaded aging Johnny Damon and picked up Curtis Granderson and seem to have the whole Hughes/Joba thing figured out. The team frontrunners love to love and haters love to hate is heading toward a triple-digit win season.

2. Rays: Speaking of confidence, there is no reason for the Rays not to view themselves as contenders again this year. They only finished two games back of the wildcard Red Sox last year. The window may be closing with Crawford and Pena reaching the end of their contracts. With the addition of Rafael Soriano as a closer this may be the most talented and experienced Tampa will be. After this season they will have to decide if they want to spend some money or become the Marlins (which is not the worst thing in the world).

3. Red Sox: Too many question marks for me to put the Sox ahead of the Rays or Yanks. There are certainly capable. What will be left of Ortiz? Even though Beltre is a defensive upgrade from Mike Lowell, will he produce at the plate? The rotation is once again strong for the Red Sox, but was the addition of Lackey enough? If Boston gets rolling, they could win the division, but they have been inconsistent over the previous two years.

4. Baltimore: There may finally be some reason for opitimism at Camden Yards. The rotation may not be that reason. Kevin Millwood will attempt to be the veteran leader, but the guy to watch is Matusz. Young arms are great but there is too much "if this guy can produce" talk. These pitchers will be facing 3 of the best offensive line-ups many times during the year, they will be tested. The lineup is solid, of course led by Jones, Markakis, Scott and the upcoming Weiters. Tejada returns but at 3B. The team should be more fun to follow for Oriole fans than in past years and right now, that is a small victory.

5. Blue Jays: The J.P. Ricardi experiment was 86'd but the biggest loss was Halladay of course. The rotation is naturally in flux and their 5th starter is listed right now as TBA. The lineup has a couple young stars in Hill and Lind but also a bunch of, "oh that guy" hitters; Overbay, Encarnacion and of course Vernon Wells. I love Cito Gaston but it is going to be a rough ride in Toronto this year.

AL Central

1. Twins: This was the hardest division for me to decide on. These Twins are slightly different form the ones we have known the past few years, but I expect them to be successful like their recent incarnations. Joe Mauer has his money, helping swell the payroll to around $96 million. The early April/October games at Target Field should be lovely. Also there will be no Joe Nathan so the bullpen is up in the air at this point. The lineup is solid but even Ms. Cleo (too dated?) does not know how Lariano will do this year. I still think the Twins find a way to make the playoffs, like they often do.

2. Tigers: There was quite the coming and going of players in Detroit in the offseason. Gone are Granderson, Jackson, Polanco, Rodney, and most recently Robertson. Incoming Valverde, Jackson, Scherzer. The lineup still packs a punch with Ordonez, Guillen and Cabrera. There seems like Leyland is going to have to really work things out in the lineup and the bullpen to get the team running. It should be another close race between Detroit and Minnesota for the division.

3. White Sox: The Southside has become more about the Kenny and Ozzie show than the actual team on the field to those outside of Chicago. The heart of this team is the starting pitching. With Buehrle, Peavy, Floyd, Danks and Garcia the Sox need a lot of strong starts and long outings to be successful. Jenks is back as the closer but Putz is coming off his season-ending surgery from last year with the Mets. The lineup is not too impressive on paper but Juan Pierre, Alex Rios, and Paul Konerko have shown they can produce. Unless their hitters step it up another level it is going to be another season hovering around .500.

4. Indians: How miserable were the Indians last year? They tied the Royals for last place at 32 games under .500. No illusions for Cleveland faithful, it is time to rebuild at the Jake (no way I'm calling it Progressive Field).

5. Royals: Should be fun watching the Royals try to stay under 100 losses. No, no it won't.

AL West:

1. Rangers: The Texas Rangers are my present day Gonzaga. I keep picking them to surprise people and I am then let down in the end. In a division that gives you 1 in 4 odds to win it every year, it is amazing the Angels have dominated it. But with Nolan Ryan calling out pitchers and Ron Washington doing lines who knows what can happen! The rotation is hardly fear-inspiring, with Harden not exactly an innings-eater and Harrison is coming off injury. Colby Lewis was in Japan the last few years. Julio Borbon (fantastic baseball name) is being looked to for stability at the leadoff spot. Despite the early injury to Kinsler, the 2-5 spots look juicy: Young, Hamilton, Vlad, and Kinsler.

2. Angles: Mike Scioscia gets a lot of dap and it is well deserved, but with so many changes taking places with the Angels I don't know if they can reach last year's level. No more Chone, Vlad, or Lackey. They did add Hideki but if he makes it all the way through the season healthy I will be shocked. The rotation is good, but not mind-blowing. Having Piniero and Kazmir at the back-end was a good move by the Angels.

3. Mariners: A lot of people are high on the M's this year. They could be a sleeper, but while their pitching and particularly their outfield defense is solid, where are the runs going to come from? Ichiro and new addition Chone Figgins can get on, but who will drive them home? Seattle overachieved expectations last year, and this year I think they underachieve.

4. A's: The biggest plus for Oakland is their young rotation. Ben Sheets has been added as an offseason flyer on whether he can stay healthy. Billy Beane always provides a solid bullpen as well. The lineup just does not scream offense to me. The bang ball days are dwindling away and Eric Chavez reduced to utility duties in the IF due to injuries point to where the Moneyball Oakland team stands; hobbled and soon to be a memory.


AL Playoffs

Yankees over Twins(again)
Rangers over Rays

ALCS
Yankees over Rangers

World Series
Phillies over Yankees

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MLB Predictions: National League

The rivers are swollen with rain, drinking well water is being discouraged, it is gray, dreary and in the 50s, it must be time for baseball! Moving to the area of my favorite team should excite me since I will get to see virtually all of their games and will make a trip or two to their ballpark, but then I remember my favorite team is the Mets and the excitement dulls rather quickly. Nothing fancy here, we predict the order of finish for the 3 divisions of the NL (AL tomorrow). Our resident Braves fan and former Turner Field intern Beck sent us this clip from the Braves 9-6 Spring Training win over the Yankees yesterday. Unfortunately the internet fascists over at the worldwide leader made this clip unsharable so the link is the best we could do. You will notice a few things in the video; Bobby Cox taking issue with a call (shocking I know), the general malaise of players who already know they are making the squad, and young Pat Venditte. Pat is an ambidextrous pitcher. He wears a six-fingered glove and gave up two hits and a walk. The sportscasters doing the highlight in the videoclip toss in an amphibious reference at the end. Anytime a reference to our namesake is tossed out there, we feel it deserves attention (which makes me wonder if the NC State fans that swooped in to bitch me out got the reference to our blog name since Charles Shackleford went there). That was a really roundabout way to throw in an amphibious reference but I was not about to let Beck's effort go to waste. Predictions after the break.

[teams listed in order of predicted finish, how off was I last year? see here]
NL East

1. Phillies: The Phils have to be considered the front-runners in the NL. While they bid goodbye to their postseason horse Lee, they welcomed Halladay with open arms. That said, I give Roy two bad outings before the fans boo this man. The youthful generation of Philly fans feel they have a reputation and divine right to boo anything and anyone in their city when it comes to sports. "We're the city that booed Santa Claus!" Yeah, that's not a badge of honor. So now anytime anything bad happens, you can hear the crecendo rising from "should we boo this?" to "oh right, we boo everything." That said I see no reason Roy will not continue his incredible mound performances. A lot will be made of his never having pitched in the playoffs, but the way Roy tediously prepares for his outings, I don't think it will matter. Word is his work ethic has rubbed on off on the rest of the rotation. If that is the case lookout. The offense will be just as potent as last year and I like the Polanco addition by subtraction of Feliz. The bullpen could be a question with Lidge recovering from injury, but even then it is still strong. Hard to find a weakness for this team, I think they roll easy in this division.

2. Braves: It's the last hurrah for Bobby Cox. I can't say I will be sad to see him go. The scarlet-faced curmudgeon did have an impressive run thankfully for him and the team they triumphed in '95 or it would be a more dubious distinction to win all those consecutive division titles. I don't think it gives the team extra incentive to do well. Hudson and the arrival of Billy Wagner as the closer have people talking but the big story is Jason Heyward. Media members are struggling for comparisons; I've heard everything from Ryan Howard to Griffey but in bodysize he appears in between the two. He might turn out to be a Dave Winfield type but...actually let's just sit back and wait. The Bravos are having him start for day 1 which starts his FA clock a year early, but it seems they want instant results. The Braves play well in the first half of the season, but fade from the NL title race by August.

3. Marlins: Hanley Ramirez is on the short list for best offensive players in the NL. Most people have him tucked behind Pujols and Utley. The Marlins have just acquired Nate Robertson from the Tigers in their annual "look we made a trade for a player and that means we are trying" exercise. The Fish are competitive once again but not enough for the playoffs.

4. Nationals: The Pirates might have the Nats beat for state of the art stadium that sits mostly empty (there were six teams lower in attendance though!), but the good thing about being at rock-bottom is that any improvement is seen as a giant leap forward. When Stephen Strasburg is called up it will bolster attention, attendance, and maybe the Nationals play. With him and Zimmerman the Nats have the faces of the a franchise, but now they need to win...and spell correctly.

5. Metropolitans: What joy it gives me to bestow the basement prediction on my beloved Amazins. People that know are aware I am a pessimist, so while even the most cock-eyed optimist struggles to see the Mets fielding a winning team this year it is easy to believe it will not happen. The pitching behind Santana was never addressed, Beltran won't be back until May or June, and Reyes luckily will be back sooner but is a question mark even if fully healthy. The Bay signing was mandatory, and despite all the criticisms that can be hurled toward the team I will defend the move and even the contract. I am merely going to sit back and watch the team blow leads, make hideous errors, fail to hit HRs in their own park, and Johan to break down. Then when the smoke clears hopefully Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel will be gone and the team can start from scratch....again.

NL Central:

1. Cardinals: I have no insider info basis for this but when Matt Holliday strode to the plate in Busch Stadium for his first plate appearance as a Cardinal last year, the welcome he got told me he was re-signing. If you are a player who appreciates the fan relationship (probably not a lot of those out there) you cannot argue that St. Louis is one of the best. The fans are knowledgeable, forgiving, and passionate but not insane. The central could end up looking like a jumbled mess from any of the predicted orders of finishes out there, but I think with Carpenter and Wainwright anchoring the rotation and Pujols and Holliday anchoring the line-up, there is enough anchorage to get the Cards to hold ground where they left off last year.

2. Brewers: I view the Brewers this year, not enough to overtake the Cards, but their lineup has just as much pop as ever. Ryan Braun could really take another step in becoming an all-out superstar this year. He is great at the plate and his defense has been solid since moving to the outfield. I'm not sure Randy Wolf is the answer the pitching staff needed, but Ken Macha has the experience with the A's as underdogs to put together a good run.

3. Reds: Ok, I just got directed to a link for the trailer for the movie, The Expendables. I completely am derailed from baseball. Holy smokeless tobacco in a firecrotch that movie can only be awesome. So, the Reds, um, I was picking them to edge out the Cubs for 3rd place in the division but completely lost my sense of thought.

4. Cubs: I won't bother to pile on the Cubs by referring to goats, curses or foul balls that preceded a booted double play ball, but I will say the Cubs will struggle in my opinion. That is how we all want it right? Not Milton Bradley, Sammy Sosa cheating/leaving the clubhouse early Cubs. We want injury riddled, choking down the stretch Cubs. I think we get them this year. Pinella entered a situation where groundwork was set and he was able to steer them in the right direction. The wheels have since fallen off, Chicago had their chances but I don't think you can say this current incarnation is a title contender.

5. Astros: Quick, name the manager of the Astros. You have no idea do you? It's not surprising. Brad Mills takes over the struggling Houston team, coming from coaching the bench for the Red Sox. While many sabermetricians claim that the manager is merely a vacuous conduit for a team's success, I think the man in charge does have vital influence on a team's outcome. This team however did not really improve itself over the offseason. Brett Meyers adds punch (see what I did there) in the rotation but overall the team will struggle like it did last year.

6. Pirates: The Pirates are a baseball enigma. Ever since Sid Bream slid across home in 1992 the team has not crawled above .500. The immensity of their losing ways is overshadowed only by the indifference of baseball and their own city. With the Steelers always getting top billing and Crosby winning on the ice, outside the most devout Pirate fans I don't think many people care if the Pirates ever win again.

NL West

1. Rockies: It is time to remove the "Can you believe this team is good?" tag for Colorado. They were a surprise, then they backed up their success, albeit in dramatic fashion. I'm amazed guys like Troy Tulowitzki are not mentioned more often since they clearly have great impacts on how their team performs. Tulo is in the bracket of stars who get very little publicity outside of baseball circles. With pitching becoming healthy again I think the Rockies will continue their success.

2. Dodgers: The Dodgers seem the easy choice for the division because they have a lot of talent, but all has not been well for the organization. It starts at the top with owner Frank McCourt involved in his bitter divorce. As we all know with any bitter divorce it is the children who suffer. The talent of Ethier, Loney, Man-Ram, Kemp, and Martin is great, but not enough. Kershaw is the supposed future in the rotation but he is not the first in the rotation right now, that belongs to Vincente Padilla. The Dodgers win a lot of games this year but Torre is better at steering a smooth-sailing ship than navigating rapids, however mild they may be.

3. Giants: The 88 wins the Giants had last year were a surprise to many, but the pitching duo of Lincecum and Cain is hard to top. The story should be the same this year for the Giants who will have great pitching but struggle on offense behind Kung Fu Panda. The additions of DeRosa and Huff are supposed to bolster the Sandoval-led line-up but no one is holding their breath no that one.

4. Diamondbacks: The D-backs won't be as bad as their 70 win performance last year, but they are not climbing over any humps either. Having Brandon Webb back helps of course, but health is a concern and so is performance after surgery. The young trio of Reynolds, Upton, and Drew is fun to watch and will help them hover around that .500 mark.


5. Padres: San Diego is not a team that is striving for year after year excellence which is not all that different for a majority of teams in MLB. The Padres just happen to have it being thrown in their face at the moment. The team is pretty much waiting until the season floats away in July to unload Adrian Gonzalez and all the riches his trade will bring. There is a new front office and they want to start getting the pieces they want and implementing their plan for the Fathers to get competitive. Unfortunately for Padre fans that means suffering through this year, but hey look, they lowered beer prices!

NL Playoffs

Phillies over Brewers(Wild Card winners)
Cardinals over Rockies

NLCS
Phillies over Cardinals

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