Frogs Are Outside Looking In

BLINK BLINK went the little Horned Frog one day,
BLINK BLINK went the little Horned Frog.
BLINK BLINK went the little Horned Frog one day,
and his eyes went BLINK BLINK BLINK.

CHUG CHUG went the BCS one day,
SMUSH SMUSH went the little Horned Frog.
His eyes didn't go BLINK BLINK anymore,
Because they all got eaten by a dog.

A slight variation on a song I used to sing at Camp Eagle Rock as a kid. The little green frog was replaced by the symbol of TCU (which is actually a lizard but when it blinks it shoots blood out of its eye). I thought about changing the last word to strength of schedule but why kill a good rhyme?

The common sentiment in college football this year, and football in general, is that things are wide open. It is good from a spectator point-of-view, every week brings new exciting games with wide sweeping implications. However, with all these new contenders it makes it even more confusing when media, fans, and pollsters rely on reputation prior season performance to place these teams. Now granted there is a long way to go before the season is over. Undefeateds still may fall, Alabama has a great chance of sneaking back into the picture, and we may very well see a logjam at the front of the line.

TCU is one of the best teams in the country. That is not an opinion, it is a fact. They are a great team. The confines of the current system however will not allow them to make the BCS title game in Glendale, even if they go undefeated. I am not going to argue about whether the system is just or not, it is what it is. I simply want to show that the Horned Frogs are playing for a statement BCS game in January, not the crystal trophy. More after the break.

Have you watched TCU play a game? Seriously? More than one? This team is as good defensively as anyone. We will get to the weaker schedule but if Gary Patterson was preparing for any quality opponent I would bet on his defense to make a strong showing. The Frogs rank number 1 in the country in average points allowed, with 9.0. Nine points a game in today's spread it out, fly around college football. They held the high octane offenses of SMU and Baylor under their season averages. Baylor was held to 10 points, while they average nearly 35. The loss of DE Jerry Hughes, who was a beast for them last year led everyone to discount the defense from where it was last year. So far they have proven to be just as good. Gary Patterson is a damn good coach, the incident with the concussed player doesn't speak well for him, but

The offense has not been far behind. They've scored under 30 only once (a 27-0 victory over Colorado State) and rank 7th in points scored. Again, their competition has not been upper-tier all the way through but when you dominate opponents like this consistently, it shows you are that good.

Good enough to make the title game? Again, not under this system. It is not a lack of respect. People know TCU is good. They hear about them constantly and some people give them more credit for not railing against the system the way the folks in Boise seem too. As far as watching them, sometimes it is not that easy. The Mountain West has its own network and sometimes there games are Versus. That right there is not a recipe for eyeballs on your team. They had a showcase against Oregon State in Cowboy Stadium on ESPN on opening weekend, but it aired opposite LSU-North Carolina so not everyone was watching. Most would watch highlights or scan the boxscore. Oregon State is being used as a barometer this season. They played both TCU and Boise State. They are clinging to a top 25 ranking right now but an overtime loss in Washington has them sitting at 3-3. They did manage to beat #9 Arizona making them as of now the only team to play three top 10 teams. The Beavers are a good team, but will their record reflect it after they get through the rest of their schedule? The loss of James Rodgers did not help.

TCU's other BCS opponent this year was Baylor, who wasn't expected to be seen as a quality opponent but the Bears have are thus far undefeated in Big 12 play. As noted above the Frogs hammered Baylor 45-10, but don't expect the strong ranking from Baylor to hold up. They still have Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma on the schedule.

Last year, TCU played at Virginia (not a good team but still a BCS opponent on the road, in Death Valley against Clemson, at BYU (they were ranked 16 at the time they played them and were much better than this year), and Utah at home. It was a schedule that was not too far above the slate they have this year but all the chips began to fall in front of them. After they destroyed Utah 55-28 when gameday came to their campus, people began to take note. The Alabama-Florida winner was guaranteed to get to Pasadena but Texas needed a fortunate clock stoppage and a last second field goal to get the other spot. TCU was left waiting in the wings, 3 in the polls, 4 in the BCS. They were instead forced into the Fiesta Bowl against fellow non-AQ Boise State. Boise had a month to craft their offensive attack, which had routed opponents all year. TCU was up to task as they held them to just 10 points. The difference turned out to be a fake punt from their own 33 for the Broncos in a 17-10 win. It was a bitter defeat, because TCU knew this was the only game when a majority of the country was watching. The Frogs beat the Broncos in 2008 in the Poinsettia Bowl but the stakes were not as high. TCU quarterback Andy Dalton had a nightmare game, throwing 3 picks and constantly derailing offensive drives. I still feel TCU was the better team but you have to prove it on the grand stage.

The leader of the horned frogs, which are actually lizards, rocks a mock turtle.

Enter this year, with everyone talking about Boise State. Mainly because they had a Labor Day showdown with Virginia Tech at FedEx Field. They also did quite a bit of talking about the BCS and how they deserved their shot, since they were also passed over for the title game last year. TCU entered lower in the polls but once again have beaten everyone out there on their schedule. They now sit at #4 in all the polls and the BCS. It seems so tantalizingly close. Another huge showdown with the now #8 ranked Utah in two weeks looms. How far will that vault them if they win? Enough to make up for playing bottom-feeders New Mexico and UNLV? The weakness of those two teams will likely spell doom as far as the computers are concerned. According to the Sagarin poll, the Frogs have the 62nd ranked schedule. It is the biggest factor working against them. If any of the other undefeateds (Oregon, Michigan State, Missouri, Auburn) don't lose, they get to the title game before TCU. A one loss Alabama team gets in ahead of TCU. If TCU is undefeated and there is a one loss Ohio State, Wisconsin, Auburn, Oklahoma, Missouri, etc. team sitting there it is a tough call. Also, what about Boise? Let's say Auburn wins out (don't think they will) and everyone else has one loss. If TCU and Boise are the only other undefeateds does that mean it is down to those two for a shot at the title? Right now it appears the advantage is in TCU's favor from the computers, but Boise is ahead in the polls. Which means they will be ranked number 2 right behind an undefeated Auburn. Will the computers be enough to get TCU ahead of Boise?

To even get to that scenario, TCU needs to win out, which I think they will. Will they get their shot? I remain doubtful. A lot of dominoes have to fall their way. The hardliners in college football will be pointing to TCU's schedule, saying the tough road of a undefeated/1-loss BCS school holds more weight. I cannot sit here and disagree with them. TCU is a victim of what conference it plays in and big schools hesitant to play them consistently. Will that change in the future? Utah is leaving for the Pac 12 next year. Boise is coming in. That seems a swap rather than an upgrade. The ability of playoff expansion, or a plus 1 would give schools like TCU that extra opportunity. If a school from a non-AQ is deemed to have a high rank early in the season, plays quality BCS schools in its non-conference, faces top 25 teams multiple times during the year, and goes undefeated there should be a way to get them an opportunity to face the other worthy teams. Many would disagree, and say the non-AQs don't face the week in, week out tests that BCS conference schools do. Others would argue that there is an opportunity for teams like TCU to make the title game, if all the other AQ schools fall by the wayside. The bottom line this year is that the last scenario is all TCU can hope for. Despite the upheaval in football this year I don't see it happening. The Frogs will remain a great team, but one watching the title game instead of playing it in.

Ratings and rankings were drawn from the polls, but most of the info was based on this week's Sagarin rankings.

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College Basketball Notebook: Tough Games Early can be the Difference

The message has been sent by the selection committee and the schools have heard it. Schools from big conferences can no longer depend on their performance in-conference alone to get into the tournament or receive a favorable seed. After certain BCS conference teams have been left out of the big dance, this season has featured some tough early season match-ups between highly ranked opponents. Whether it is in a tournament, a highly contested match-up on a neutral court, or a visit to an opponent's tough home floor teams are loading up their pre-conference schedule with quality games so they their resume is undeniable come tourney time.

A View from the Top



According to Vegas, if you pay attention to that sort of thing, North Carolina is listed as a 36.4% chance to win it all. The only other team in double digits is UCONN at 11.1%. No matter what percentages you go by, Carolina is the clear-cut favorite to win the tournament. The closest any opponent has come to the Tar Heels was 15 and that was in their first game against Penn. UNC has passed the century mark 4 times and pretty much look unstoppable at 9-0. Although any team will put some soft opponents on their schedule to not completely batter themselves down before conference play and to give some of the schools from smaller conferences exposure in the "guarantee games", the Tarheels have faced quality competition. The problem for those teams and is that they have not given Carolina any competition. The Tarheels participated in the Maui Invitational where they beat Oregon by 29 and then thumped no. 12 Notre Dame 102-87 in the final. North Carolina also went to Ford Field to face Michigan State it what was supposed to be a showdown of two top ten teams, but it was not close with the Heels winning 98-63. It is not the hardest of schedules but UNC is pretty much a lock for a 1 seed in the region of their choice as long as they do not lose too many games but at this rate they may not lose at all.

The Orange Have Left New York

Perhaps the most telling example of the trend of schools seeking tougher schedules lies in the northeast. Since I can remember Syracuse was annually ridiculed for not leaving the confines of the Empire state throughout the entire pre-conference schedule. They would relie on their success in the Big East to justify their tournament invite, but after failing to reach the dance two years in a row even after respectable performances in-conference the Orange got proactive. They participated in the CBE Classic in Kansas City where they beat Florida who was ranked at the time and then defeated a then-ranked Kansas team. The win vaulted the Orange into the rankings. The Orange lost the other night on a ridiculous 60-foot shot to Cleveland State, but they must put that behind them as they travel to Memphis to take on the Tigers this Saturday. The Eric Devendorf situation is no help either but if the Orange come down to being a bubble team again this year, these pre-conference games outside the Carrier Dome and MSG will get them in.

Pearl is Volunteering



Bruce Pearl has done wonders for the Tennessee men's basketball program. The last two years he has brought the Vols to the Sweet 16 and they very well could make the trip there again. Pearl has shown he is not afraid of playing competition anywhere and anyplace. This includes games from tourney teams from smaller conferences that made a splash last year by playing at Siena and against Belmont. In a tournament in Orlando the Vols beat Georgetown and then fell to Gonzaga, two teams currently in the top 15. The other UT loss was at Temple last Saturday, certinaly not one of the nation's top teams but their name still carries weight and the fact that Tennessee went on the road helps as well. The Vols rebounded by beating no. 24 Marquette last night. With the January 24 meeting with Memphis thrown into the mix, there is no doubt the Vols will be respected for their schedule come March.

Some Good News in Michigan

Many think Michigan is on the right path, at least as far as basketball is concerned. One thing that is for sure is that John Beilein has some big quality wins on his schedule this year. Wins against UCLA and Duke are big boosts to the resume and one of their two losses has been at Maryland, not a highly ranked opponent but one from the ACC nonetheless. The Wolverines also visit UCONN on February 7th to increase they strength of schedule. If UM gets in the 17-20 win neighborhood, these games could get them into their first NCAA tourney in ten years.

Sooners Rising Up



Oklahoma coach Jeff Capel and the rest of Sooner nation were glad when Blake Griffin returned to school this year and he has come up big in their big non-conference games. Games against Davidson, UAB, USC, Purdue, and a fairly tough VCU team will assure the Sooners get a decent seed placement if they weather the Big XII.

Davidson Not Relaxing

One of the reasons that Davidson their exciting run to the Elite 8 last year was the fact that they played tough compeition early. Games against North Carolina, Duke and UCLA helped toughen the team mentally and helped secure a ten seed in the tournament. This year coach Bob McKillop has followed the same philosophy with games at Oklahoma, N.C. State, West Virgnia, at Purdue, and at Duke. The Wildats lone loss was at Oklahoma by 4 points. With Stephen Curry leading the way, Davidson should receive possibly a single digit seed in the tourney. The strong schedule only helps their cause.

X-Men Gaining Reputation

Xavier has made the NCAA tournament 7 of the last 8 years and in 2 of those years they reached the Elite 8. Coach Sean Miller has not only continued what Thad Motta started there, he has built on it. Xavier plays in an upper-middle A-10 so the Musketeers have taken it upon themselves to play some of the big conference teams early on. Missouri and Virginia Tech early may not seem big now, but by the end of the year thsoe could be quality wins. After dispatching their rival Cincinnati last Saturday, the X-men play Duke this Saturday and then follow it up with a game at always tough Butler on the 23rd. Xavier was one win away from the Final Four last year and I expect them to be another strong darkhorse for Detroit this year.

There are plenty more teams that have put the strong opponents on their schedule in the hopes that it might give them the edge in fighting for a tournament spot and when you look at the teams that may fall short, the tournament committee has repeatedly gone with who they played in the pre-conference and strength of schedule to tip the scales in one team's favor. Another result of this trend in college basketball is that we get great match-ups early in the season. This Saturday really exemplifies that, just take a look at the slate of game this weekend:

#2 UCONN @ #8 Gonzaga
#19 Michigan State @ #5 Texas
#6 Duke @ #7 Xavier
#11 Syracuse @ #23 Memphis
#22 Davidson @ #13 Purdue

Should be great to see how these teams match-up. It may be a long way from March, but teams' identities are formed along the journey of the season and in these type of games. Football is king this time of year, but that does not mean you cannot watch some great college basketball on the side. These games deserve recognition and if the fans are not all watching, the tournament committee at least should be.

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