The Jamaican drug debate is in full swing, and Victor Conte is weighing in! Plus the Jamaican team doctor comments on slavery, and Bolt's father comments on magic yams. Yahoo! Sports
Type rest of the post here
Monday, August 25
Reflections of the Olympic Games
After the past sixteen days we have seen everything that is virtuous about sports in the global society. A great many other things have been seen along the way and naturally not all of them have been positive. I will not focus on the political implications (or at least try to) and I will limit the discussion of the downside of the games mainly because I thoroughly enjoyed this installment of the Summer Olympic Games. I believe our country’s athletes exemplified what is pure in the exaltation of athletic victory.
The Build Up
There was a great degree of trepidation as to how smoothly these games would run. The discussion of smog, the human rights issue and PEDs seemed as if they would but a damper on the games. The rumblings began with the protesting of the running of the Olympic torch. The lasting image that China used was the protesters attacking a paraplegic girl and the girl protecting the torch. She was hailed as a national hero. I don’t care what side of Tibet you hail from, physically going after a girl in a wheelchair for carrying an inanimate object is reprehensible. It’s a torch, not the keys to the Chinese military. The Chinese clearly had their act together when the Opening Ceremony began on the 8th. It’s hard to put into words the theatrical presentation of the Opening Ceremony and unless someone has seen it the description gets lost in translation. The enduring image was the towering Yao Ming walking side by side with a little boy who saved classmates in an earthquake that occurred in the Chinese countryside.
The Cube
The pool in the Water Cube was built for speed and for all who watched inside it or on TV, it was built for pleasure. The pool was designed wider and deeper to decrease the water disturbance and decrease the times. Combined with the aerodynamic Speedo suits the world records did not stand a chance, even Janet Evans’s 19 year old 1500m Freestyle record was crushed. At the head of the excitement stood Michael Phelps, with his immense breakfast, training regiment, motivation, and physical attributes. In the early stages of his run, it seemed the only one who could come close to Phelps was the green line marking the world record pace, but even the line fell short. It was in the 4x100 meter relay that the drama began. The anchor leg by Jason Lezak should be remembered as one of the greatest Olympic performances of all time. His amazing comeback on the French prompted the now indelible image of Phelps celebrating in exaltation. It was commented that Phelps was rejoicing in the fact that his dream of 8 Olympic medals was still alive, but I think he was simply captured in the moment of half disbelief that Lezak caught Bernard and half team pride for winning the race just as everyone watching was.
Phelps was clearly the best, but the swims were taking a toll on him. In a situation where he and the Serbian Cavic have equal amount of rest Phelps would win easily but in this case Michael was on the tail end of the gauntlet of races. The half stroke he took proved to be the difference proving that even the best benefit from an amount of luck. In the end, Phelps accomplished something that no one else has in Olympic history. That in itself should be celebrated and appreciated for the phenomenal event that transpired. The rush of hyperbole came on faster than Phelps in the last 15 meters of a race. Suddenly it was a question of how Phelps stacked up against the history of not only his own sport but also the greats of other games. I am hesitant to crown him king of athletes and lord of the Olympics, but I do know I was rooting for him, and most definitely admire his performance.
The Young and the Senseless
Having an older sister that competed in gymnastics I am accustomed to watching the sport every Olympics. I am not ashamed to say I know who Bart Connor is and the origins of the Thomas flare. I was glued to the television when Kim Zimeskal heartbreakingly failed to win gold in Barcelona and when Kerri Strug hit the vault on the broken leg. That being said I was both inspired and disappointed in what happened in the women’s competition. The judging was inconsistent and quite favorable to the Chinese. The Americans were penalized far more harshly for mistakes than the host country. Many times the wait for the judges scoring brought the competition to a halt while they discussed over the phone the routines or watched them in slow motion on their monitors. The American team’s hopes fell when Alicia Sacramone fell off the beam and then on the floor. At 20 years old, this was likely Alicia’s last Olympics and it was aching to watch her after the stumble on the floor. Is there any worse feeling in sports than letting your team down?
Nastia Luken and Shawn Johnson redeemed the second place team finish with a great battle in the All-around which they continued in the Event finals. Some of the Chinese team members are not of age, I don’t care what you say its common sense. The Americans never made a case of this, and simply pressed on. It was great to see Shawn finally get a medal on the floor. In all the sports of the Olympic Games the athlete’s sacrifice, but particularly in gymnastics the training is brutal. Everyday spent in the gym, taking a pounding again and again all for one chance at a routine every four years. Underage and pre-menstrual jokes aside, the dedication and precision of Nastia and Shawn’s performances are more than admirable.
The suspect judging of course was prevalent in the indoor stadium. Alicia Sacramone lost out on a bronze medal in the vault to Chung Fei of China who missed so badly on her second vault she landed on her knees. Jonathan Horton completed a dazzling high bar routine in the Event finals and produced a better landing than his Chinese counterpart, yet had to take the silver. The Chinese crowd even booed his lower score when it was revealed. All being said, the American men took home the team Bronze with a team half filled with alternates and the American women took home more medals overall than the Chinese.
The Bobsled team has a lot to live up to
On the track, Usain Bolt put forth a performance on par with Phelps in the pool. It included breaking the 100 meter record while looking around the last 15, pushing in the 200 meters past Michael Johnson’s Atlanta record, and finally running behind Asafa Powell in the 4x100 relay rooting him on to another world record. Bolt was criticized by the IOC president and others for his celebrations after he won, but no one could deny his greatness. At only 22, he has a chance to become even more of a legend in London.
Elsewhere on the track, the USA team had both great successes and failures. The most heart wrenching of the latter was women’s hurdler Lolo Jones. With two hurdles to go in the finals, Jones caught the hurdle even though she miraculously stayed on her feet she finished out of the medals. At 26, it is unknown if she will be in there in London to try again. Watching the tears leak out of the eyes of the beautiful woman whom no one had wanted when she was young and finally found a loving foster home was like a shot to the gut. Yet despite the disappointment she still gave an interview and even managed a smile and congratulations for her competitors. The baton passing was errant to say the least in the 100 meter races but the 400 meter races went well for the Americans. Despite those that fell below expectations, the Americans came away with more medals than they ever have in an Olympic games. This included Decathlon winner Bryan Clay, one of the athletes that participated in a heightened drug testing program before and during the span of the games.
Redemption Song
The Redeem team not only had a well conceived nickname, the team itself was well conceived. When Jerry Colangelo was given the reigns to USA Basketball, he made it a point to only bring on players that wanted to win the gold back after the debacle in Athens. I cannot think of another venture in which 12 multimillionaires came together and played so selflessly for each other and their country. They were impressive early and their play was spectacular at times, but in the final against Spain their determination rose above all else. As Catfish said in a text he sent me, “The rumors of Dwayne Wade’s demise were exaggerated.” Wade came through in every single game with a big performance including a 9-12 game in the finals. As great as this win is and should be celebrated, can the USA team being this energy and attitude in every installment of the Olympic Games?
The Spirit
There are stories too many to count but those are the moments that stuck out in my mind. Just today seeing Hugh McCutcheon taking a moment for himself in the tunnel after his men’s volleyball team won gold after the tragic death of his father-in-law. In the spirit of competition and emotion these games were tantamount to any we have seen. It is hard to fathom what goes through the mind of any of the American athletes that won gold and stands on the podium hearing the national anthem. Perhaps they think of their country and what is good about what it means to be American. Maybe their thoughts fall on all the training, sacrifice and hard work that has led to this moment. Or maybe it is something as simple as the fact that they can’t wait to get back to the Olympic village and participate in the “activities” that occur after competition. For most of the athletes, it is back to a life of anonymity, and for those who did not come home with hardware, it is an even more thankless return home. I do not wish to place these athletes on an unworthy pedestal; I merely recognize and appreciate what these men and women stand for, and what they go through. Even now I look forward to the next Olympics, where this unique congregation of sport meets again.
NCAA Doesn't Play Fair
This post is light on humor, and long. For me, that's not a good combo, but I hope it is enlightening.
In the past month the NCAA has denied a sixth year of eligibility to both University of Cincinnati quarterback Ben Mauk and Pitt University forward Michael Cook. The rulings, however, are not the problem. The problem is the systematic hypocrisy of the NCAA in these cases. Ben Mauk is hardly a sympathetic figure. He took advantage of a loophole to flee Wake Forest and start playing with Cincinnati without having to sit out a year. Now, he's fighting to take back the quarterback job from Dustin Garza, again. Garza is Aaron Rodgers to Mauk's Favre. Mike Cook suffered a knee injury just minutes before LeVance Fields hit a late three pointer in overtime to beat Duke in Madison Square Garden. Both players could be tremendous assets for their teams, but as it stands, both of their collegiate careers are over. The sixth year of eligibility has been a lifeline for many student-athletes, but with each approval or denial the contradictions mount up.
NCAA rules state that athletes have four years of eligibility and five years to use them. In the event of an injury, bylaw 14.2.4. serves as the baseline for requests of a sixth year of eligibility. A 2006 change to the rule now allows athletes to participate in up to thirty percent (up from 20) of their team's season and still be eligible for the hardship waiver. The Horizon League proposed the change and offered the following argument, "The general philosophy of seasons of competition is that a student-athlete should receive four complete seasons to compete in his or her sport." If only it were so simple.
In 2006, Eric Butler, a Kansas University defensive lineman was denied his sixth year of eligibility. In 2001, Butler was set to play football at Northwest Missouri State, but his then-girlfriend (now wife) got pregnant. Rules prevented them from keeping a baby in the dorms, so they returned home. Butler enrolled at a DeVry Institute, and in the eyes of the NCAA, started his five year clock (despite DeVry not having athletics). He then took a year off to take care of his new-born daughter. In 2003, he began attending Avila University, where he finally began playing college football. The following year he transfered to Kansas, where he was a walk-on. After only two years of playing, his five-year clock was up. His initial request for a sixth year was not granted, so he tried something radical. He claimed the pregnancy exception hardship. NCAA bylaw 14.2.1.3. states, "A member institution may approve a one-year extension of the five-year period of eligibility for a female student-athlete for reasons of pregnancy." Butler's appeal, claim of a Title IX violation, and attempt at a temporary restraining all failed. His playing days at Kansas were over.
Fast forward to two weeks ago and Pat Liebig, a West Virginia University defensive lineman was granted his request for a sixth year of eligibility. In 2004, he was a medical redshirt and in 2007, he withdrew from school. His father was ill and needed help running the family business. Liebig was praised for placing his family first and will be suiting up the Mountaineers this fall. It's hard not to interpret this as a moral judgment being passed by the NCAA. Being a good son is more noble than being a good father, particularly an unwed one.
Mike Cook was unfortunate, not only to have a knee injury, but also the timing of it. The Duke game was the team's eleventh of the season, and meant he was just past the thirty percent threshold for the hardship (34% to be exact). Thanks to a tremendous run in the Big East tournament, Pitt actually played 37 games, but the NCAA uses only scheduled games as the determining number, therefore the total was 32 (31 regular season games and 1 guaranteed post-season game). Cook has previously sat out the 2005-2006 season when he transferred from East Carolina. With three complete seasons and more than 30% of the way through the fourth, Cook's appeal was an open and shut case.
The NCAA accepts Cook's redshirt because he transferred, but they are unwilling to accept Ben Mauk's redshirt, because he wasn't transferring and he wasn't hurt. When Mauk enrolled at Wake Forest it was understood he would redshirt. It's what Wake does. 42 of 44 players in their current two-deep depth chart have redshirted. The NCAA policy states, "[If] you attend a four-year college your freshman year, and you practice but do not compete against outside competition, you would still have the next four years to play four seasons of competition." That would make Mauk, who suffered a season-ending arm injury in the 3rd quarter of the first game of the '06 season a perfect candidate for the hardship waiver. The NCAA, however, is demanding proof that he sat out his freshman year due to injury. As a result Mauk is having to invent an injury and blame Wake Forest for poor record keeping, when all parties involved know he wasn't really injured. It's not fair to Mauk and it's not fair to Wake. The NCAA is not justified in punishing voluntary redshirts. Again, the policy is not across the board.
Washington State defensive end Matt Mullennix was recently granted his sixth year of eligibility. Like Mauk, he missed the 2006 season. His waiver was in part based on also getting injured in the 04 season. After four games, he was hurt in practice and out for the rest of the year. That season, Washington State went 5-6, meaning that Mullennix had played in 36% of the games, and therefore this season should not be a reason for an extra year of eligibility. Both Mauk and Mullennix missed one season, both started out as redshirts and Mauk is the odd man out, while Mullennix is a team leader for the Cougars. Mauk's use of a now rescinded rule to avoid sitting out while transferring seems to be the lone difference.
The NCAA has in recent years shown a shift from requiring two seasons lost to injury for a hardship waiver, to one redshirt season and one for medical reasons. Still, the rules remain ambiguous and arbitrarily enforced. The perfect example of their hypocrisy came in the courtroom proceedings of the dedicated father, Eric Butler. A lawyer for the NCAA claimed Butler's participation would harm the goal of ensuring a level playing against the other NCAA schools which do not field such athletes. The following year, Eric Butler was playing football again. This time for Washburn University, a NCAA Division II school.
Saturday, August 23
Miles of Implications
Darius Miles is now a Celtic. He signed a non-guaranteed contract and now, two-plus years after a “career-ending” knee injury he’s looking to return to the league. The former third pick in the draft, Miles’s greatest impact will occur 2,500 miles to the west. When Miles’s knee injury was determined to be career-ending, the Trailblazers were able to get his remaining contract taken off their salary cap. If he plays in ten or more games over the course of the next two seasons, two years and $18 million will go back on the Blazers’ payroll. In other words, if Danny Ainge heads to Orgeon expect Kevin Pritchard and Francis Fratelli to force him to do the truffle shuffle and threaten to blend his hand unless the Celtics cut Miles.
The effect this season will be largely monetary. Portland already has to shell out $27.25 million to Darius for the privilege of not having him on their team. If Miles plays ten games the Trailblazers will instantly become $10.35 million over the luxury tax threshold. The greater impact will be felt heading into the 2009 season. Portland has only $15 million in contracts for the 2009/10 season, but several team options and restricted free agents to be concerned with.
It’s a virtual lock that the team options for Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Brandon Roy will be picked up. Sergio Rodriguez’s team option is for less than two million and depending on his play this season will probably be picked up as well. The total contract value for 2009/10 rises to $32 million.
Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, and Martell Webster will all be restricted free agents following this upcoming season. Webster was a starter and Frye a contributor off the bench. Martell will be their first re-signing priority and they would like to keep Frye for frontcourt depth, but depending on his play his price tag could rise too high. Diogu will likely be the odd man out. If the Blazers are able to keep both Webster and Frye it will cost the team in the neighborhood of $15 million, for a new grand total of $47 million.
The salary cap for the 09/10 season will likely be in the neighborhood of $61 million. The Blazers had hoped to have plenty of cap room to be players in the free agent market, but with the addition of Darius Miles’s contract they will be at approximately $56 million of the $61 million cap. They also will have to decide if they want to keep Steve Blake whose contract is not guaranteed for the 09/10 season. The veteran leader is a competent floor leader and one of their best 3-point shooters.
Combined with new draft picks the Blazers will be pressed up against the salary cap. If they want to add a free agent, they’ll be forced to subtract from their own roster. The following year, both Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge will be up for contracts and the year after, Greg Oden. The cap flexibility and surplus of young talent will slowly erode.
It’s hard to feel bad for the Blazers when GM Kevin Pritchard has been open about trying to dissuade other teams from considering Miles and the leak of a positive drug test that would result in a ten-game suspension for Miles if he makes it back. It would be hard to argue with any team (particularly in the west) signing Miles solely for the purpose of screwing with the Blazers cap space. As it stands now, the extent of Portland’s short term success may hinge on the attempted comeback, three time zones away, of an inconsistent forward, who at one point was compared to Kevin Garnett. Keep those antennas up to see how it all plays out.
Thursday, August 21
A Historical Perspective
Sports fans, as a whole, have been suckered in. Debates about whose favorite player reigns supreme is nothing new, but the need instantly quantify an athlete’s place in history is a phenomenon intensified by the Talking Heads. We no longer have 24 hours to enjoy an accomplishment before we have to rack and stack their performance against history. The problem is not the debate, but that battle lines are drawn, hyperbole and insults serve as ammunition instead of facts.
Part of the joy of Michael Phelps’s performance was the opportunity to look back and learn how his performance compares to other Olympic greats. Phelps has, at minimum, established himself as the best all-around swimmer in history. This fact is quantifiable. He holds records in individual strokes as well as medley events, a rarity not seen since Gary Hall, Sr., who held three individual world records to Phelps’s four, but never won a gold medal. To date, no one has broken Phelps’s individual records except himself, a fact made more impressive considering he’s held three of them for five plus years.
Limiting Phelps’s greatness in today’s day and age is unacceptable. The titles of Greatest Olympian and Greatest Athlete are now mandatory discussion points. People try to quantify his accomplishments against those of Jesse Owens, Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, et al. The topic is not a bad one, except that most people lack the breadth of knowledge to discuss them, while all taking different sides. Defenders of Owens play the Nazi card, while neglecting the awe-inspiring day he had at the Big Ten Championships. Others attempt to quantify Phelps’s medals v. Woods’s Majors, assuming a 1:1 medals to majors ratio. This ratio would put Padraig Harrington (3 majors) on the same level with Russian Greco-Roman wrestler Alexander Karelin (3 Olympic Gold Medals), a beast of a man that went undefeated from 1987-2000. These apples to oranges comparisons are as limitless as they are difficult, and too often spiral into a chorus of “nuh uh,” “you can’t be serious,” and “you must be joking.”
It’s ironic given all the hard work that these athletes put in to their craft, is offset by the lack of effort put in by the people that state their case. The discussion should be entertaining, a challenge to place someone in the hierarchy of history, but the need to anoint one is a futile effort that, like so many arguments, is often “won” by those that yell loudest. We should embrace these opportunities to learn about the greats before our time or to revisit their achievements. The fun should lie in learning that Johnny Weissmuller was undefeated, revisiting Edwin Moses’s winning streak, and hearing what others have discovered. The joy of debate should be the discussion, not the result.
Wednesday, August 20
College Football Predictions: The BCS
The (shudder) BCS remains the defining end to the college football season. We have reviewed the BCS Conferences, now here are my picks for the BCS match-ups and the attempt at explanation for the choices:
Rose Bowl, Jan. 1st 2009
Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl, Jan 1st 2009
Wisconsin vs. Wake Forest
Sugar Bowl, Jan. 2nd 2009
Auburn vs. West Virginia
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Jan 5th 2009
BYU vs. Missouri
BCS National Championship
USC vs. Georgia
National Champion: Georgia
First off, anyone who tells you that their picks are certain or even worth betting an old civil war heirloom that is actually a whiskey flask that they are right is ludicrous in itself. But this is the scenario I see unfolding. I believe Southern California will beat Ohio State in the game of the year. I do not expect a blow-out and of course the Buckeyes are quite capable of winning this one. That should be the only blemish on the OSU resume, but with their final game against Michigan and pollsters not willing to put their faith in another Buckeye appearance in the title game (which is improper thinking), they will fall into the dreaded three spot in the final rankings. I have a hard time seeing USC losing if they get by Ohio State, but then again they lost to Stanford last year. They slip once, but the win over the Buckeyes will validate their spot (validation in BCS terms). I do believe Georgia will fall once during their gauntlet run of the SEC, but winning the East and taking down Auburn in the title game will solidify their argument. By the way, I think it may very well be Auburn who hands Georgia that one loss.
The Georgia-USC match-up will be one that is touted as the game people wanted to see last January. A case could be made for either side in this case, but I believe Georgia will be hungry and Mark Richt will steer them to a close victory and then everyone will continue to have to listen to intolerable SEC smack talk for another decade. The element I always notice in these games is how unpredictable it is to know how these top teams will perform after a month off. But something tells me Richt’s preparation will have more of a sense of urgency than Pete Carroll’s will.
Ohio State will trounce Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl to take out their frustration much like USC did last year to Illinois. The BYU-Missouri game appears unsexy on the surface, but it would be an extremely entertaining game. BYU has been shown the way by Utah, Boise State, and Hawai’i and I expect them to run the table. Wisconsin and Wake Forest will therefore be dubbed as the worst match-up, but it pits two great defensive coaches against one another, but don’t expect any great highlights even though it would be hotly contested. Auburn and West Virginia would be a game I would definitely be interested in observing. The fading spread offense of WVU against the newly born spread of the Tigers. I would expect this to be Bill Stewart’s last grasp of the big time.
Well, I for one cannot wait to see how wrong I am come December and January and my only hope is that the games this year give us the same excitement, and less pointless arguments than last year, but I am not an optimist by trade.
Monday, August 18
College Football Predictions: The Pac-10
For the final BCS Conference preview we head out West. And in a huge shocker we choose USC to take the title. Despite the sliding kneecaps and the loss of more talent, Pete Carroll and crew should take the Pac-10 title and compete for a spot in the BCS title game. It will not be as glamorous as years past with the absolutely dominating performances, but USC is simply more talented than their opponents with the exception possibly of Ohio State. The stumbles the Trojans had last year including the inexplicable loss to Stanford and Jim Harbaugh at home, and a loss in Eugene to Oregon fuel the fire for this year. They have a similar chip on their shoulder to Georgia in that both teams were playing better than anyone in the country at the end of last year, but while Georgia’s case was shot down by not winning their Conference, USC could not overcome a loss to the trees. There might be a few close contests in the mix, but the Trojans should once again be champs of the Pac-10.
Of course we must give a nod to the September 13th match-up with Ohio State. It will be a game of epic proportions and I think it will be more the margin of victory than who wins the game that will be the most important result to take away from the game. Offensively, the Trojans will lean on their running backs and why not? They have plenty of depth at the position, a sturdy offensive line, and look for Joe McKnight to take off this year behind center Kris O’Dowd and company. I have a feeling USC will muscle defenses around in conference this year. The oft overlooked USC defense will be the backbone of the team. This version of the Trojan army should be more of a grinding team led by staunch linebacker play of Brian Cushing. Right now it appears that Sanchez will be able to play behind center. As long as he or whoever is taking snaps can stay clean and avoid big mistakes, the Trojans should roll in Conference play.
Their main competition should come from Arizona State. Somehow Dennis Erickson has been washed clean of the mess he left at Miami. It is now but a distant memory and he has had work ever since, bouncing around in the NFL and Oregon State. Last season the Sun Devils had a surprisingly good year, and even had thoughts of winning the Pac 10 until USC beat them at home. I see this year’s team winning the games they are supposed to, but I think Georgia is seeing their match-up with the Devils in Tempe on September 20th, as a statement game and the Devils have not won a big game in a while. Quarterback Sam Carpenter adds new true freshman wideout Gerell Robinson to the offensive attack, but it may be the defense which proves to be the Achilles heel. Oregon came into this season ranked 20th in the coaches poll but if there were questions as to how the team would do without Dennis Dixon or Jonathan Stewart, it was put to the side after the tragic drowning of redshirt safety Todd Doxley. The running game should be fine with Jeremiah Johnson, but questions at QB for a spread offense are never a good thing. He has accomplished a lot already but I think we will really see a gritty coaching performance by Mike Belotti this year. I was expecting UCLA to over perform this year, but with Ben Olson out for two months, the Bruins might be in too deep of a hole by the time they return. I’m sure Phillip Fulmer would be doing cartwheels if he was physically able after learning that UCLA will be sans Olsen for their match-up. The rest of the Pac10 will duke it out as always, but I think the axe will fall on Willingham in Washington this year unless they win a bowl game.
Pac 10 picks
Conference Champion: USC
Below Expectations: Washington, Oregon
Above Expectations: Oregon State, Washington State
Player to watch: Joe Mcknight, RB, USC
Game to watch: Arizona State @ USC, October 11th
Thursday, August 14
College Football Predictions: The Big East
Mike Tranghese and friends over at the Big East have been quite happy with themselves with the recent success the conference has had despite losing its three top programs to the ACC. While the ACC has floundered in football, especially in BCS games while the Big East has been strutting. Capped off by last years’ West Virginia lambasting of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, the Big East looks (and mostly prays) for the trend to continue. They already lost one high profile coach, and may lose their others to other power conferences, but the talent keeps coming in and the Big East keeps performing. Bottom line is, the trend will not end this year, and it figures to be West (by God) Virginia taking the title home again.
I see this conference as a two boat race between West Virginia and South Florida. Rutgers will be hurting from losing Ray Rice and three starters from the O-line. The Scarlet Knights had what has now become a disappointing 8-4 season last year. I expect them to take 3rd in the Big East, but they face Pitt, West Virginia, and South Florida all away from the comforts of Jersey. South Florida became everyone’s darlings last year for a few weeks last year before losing steam and getting routed by Oregon in the Sun Bowl. Jim Leavitt is a coach you can enjoy watching because you know he really cares for the program and is not just hamming it up on the sidelines. Matt Grothe is the head of the offense for the Bulls. As the saying goes, to kill the dragon (bull in this case) you must sever the head. If Grothe is held in check, the Bulls seems to flounder. But with another year of experience behind him, I expect the South Florida offense to perform well. They will be tested early, facing Kansas on September 12th in Tampa, but expect them to perform just as well, if not a shade better than they did last year. Expectations are suddenly up for the stache of Dave Wannstedt after shocking WVU in the “Backyard Brawl” last year, ending the Mountaineers title hopes. But this is Dave, the stache, they will struggle once again, even with sizzling sophomore LeSean McCoy in the backfield. Losing NFL first round pick Jeff Otah on that line makes it even harder for McCoy and you can bet there will be many defenders in the box when the Panthers take the field. Another blow to the team was losing DE Doug Fulmer for the season with a knee injury. Louisville and coach Steve Kagthorpe have an uphill battle I front of them. Hopefully the luster from years past can propel them to signing the same level of talent they had beginning with John L. Smith years ago. A lot will be expected from Hunter Cantwell as he replaces Brian Brohm, but he is a senior and the Cards will need him. The first game against Kentucky may very well be a barometer of how the team will fare this season.
That leaves us with the lads from Morgantown. West Virginia was brought to new heights under Rich Rodriguez, but now they face the long years ahead. But Lo! Pat White returns to the delight of Moutaineer fans and Erin Andrews(obligatory) and even though backfield mate Steve Slaton is now cashing checks from Sunday, Noel Devine is more than able in the backfield (8.6 yards per rush last year). Many have pointed to the Bill Stewart factor as being a similar situation to when Larry Coker inhabited the powerhouse Miami team of Butch Davis. I say a thousand times yes to this comparison. Rich Rodriguez may not be welcome in the wild and wonderful state, but fans will miss what he brought to the program. This West Virginia team will thrive this year with their only out of conference road test coming against Colorado and I look for them to play with a purpose after just missing the national championship last year by giving it away to Pittsburg in the last game of the regular season. Their home date with Auburn will probably decide whether they enter the BCS title conversation or have to rest their hopes on simply another Big East title. Either way I see them coming out on top, or then after this year, I see dark days ahead. So enjoy the sun while it shines in Morgantown, because it won’t last after this year.
Big East picks
Conference Champion: West Virginia
Below Expectations: Pittsburgh
Above Expectations: Louisville
Player to Watch: Matt Grothe, QB, South Florida
Game to Watch: South Florida @ West Virginia, December 6th
College Football Predictions: Big Ten
Big Ten discussion begins and ends with Ohio State. They’ve won two straight Big Ten titles, but lost two straight national championship games. This year they are poised to become the first team to win three straight Big Ten titles, but will they receive an invitation to a third straight national championship game? The question could be answered on September 13th, when they hit the road to take on USC. A win would legitimize a team that people are increasingly questioning, due to their less than stellar performances in the past two championship games. If they lose that game, it would not be hard to imagine them being left out of the BCS National Championship.
In an almost annual tradition, one Big 10 team will have a favorable schedule and end up ranked higher than they should be. This year’s candidate is Iowa. Their toughest conference tests will be three straight games, at home against Wisconsin, on the road against Illinois, and back at home against Penn State. With a road game against Pitt (and stud RB LeSean McCoy) their toughest non-conference game, anything less then eight wins should disappoint Hawkeye fans hoping to rebound from a 6-6 season.
Penn State, who were (cue the cliché machine) much maligned this off season, will need to rebound from a 4-4 conference mark. If they do not, look for the “Fire JoePa” cries to reach a deafening level that could result in an ugly off-season drama on par with the recent Favre saga. Unfortunately for fans of the Coke bottle glasses, they play three of their toughest contests on the road. They have games against Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa will all be on enemy turf in a one month span. One of the oft-cited reasons JoePa needs to go has been his inability to beat either Michigan or Ohio State. A victory over Michigan combined with a big road win should buy him another year. If he beats Ohio State, he can coach until he’s decomposed.
Michigan fans were stunned at the beginning of last season, and while Rich Rodriguez may lead the team back to conference power, this will not be the year. They lost the Terrelle Pryor sweepstakes and will be without a QB to run Rodriguez’s spread offense for at least one season. Their soft non-conference schedule as well as games against Minnesota, Purdue, and Northwestern should allow the team to stay above .500, but if they lose any of these games, watch out. Rodriguez has allegedly eroded the family values of the program, and could do the same for the win total this season.
Wisconsin stands to have another 8 or 9 win season, but could be propelled into second place if they can solidify their quarterback position. Currently, the second highest ranked team in the league they return a solid line, bruising running back PJ Hill and tight end Travis Beckum, who should serve as a comfort blanket for new QB Allan Evridge. A tough non-conference game at Fresno State will set the tone as they enter conference play, but look for them to end the season strong.
The bridesmaid of the Big Ten stands to be Illinois, who return Juice Williams, but have lost Rashard Mendenhall. Danny Dufrene is poised to fill-in at that spot after averaging only one-tenth of a yard less per carry than Mendenhall last season (6.4 ypc v. 6.3), but in less than a fifth of Mendenhall’s carries. Illini fans better hope than it takes less time for Daniel to break out then it took Andy. While Illinois beat Ohio State last year, don’t look for a repeat performance. This year’s game will be a revenge game for the Sweater Vest and company, and could be their last test on their way to Miami. Terrelle Pryor gives OSU their own Juice Williams and could serve as a Ryan Perrilloux-like addition that pushes the Buckeyes over come January.
Big Ten picks
Conference Champion: Ohio State
Below Expectations: Michigan
Above Expectations: Wisconsin, Iowa
Player to Watch: (How do I pick just one Buckeye? Ignoring the All-American and Heisman hopefuls) Potential X factor Terrelle Pryor, QB Ohio State
Game to Watch: Ohio State @ Illinois, November 15th
College Football Predictions: The Big XII
Everyone has that image in their head of the gold prospector/cowboy firing his six-shooters in the air and dancing around like a crazy person. That, to me, is what comes to mind when I think of the Big XII this year in football. I expect to see a lot of offense, long scoring plays, and lots of coaches on the sideline throwing their headsets to the ground. There are four legitimate contenders to the conference title this year, and five if you count Texas Tech which I guess I will, for now. The spots in the Championship Game at Arrowhead in Kansas City could very well come down to the last few weeks. This year I’m banking on the Gary Pinkel train to keep rolling, and the Missouri Tigers to reach the summit and take the Big XII title and BCS bid this year.
The Tigers had been seen as a team of also-rans in years past. Always coming up short in conference, and even having victory kicked away from them one year. Last year proved to be the turnaround. Chase Daniel led the Tigers offense to the North Title and a spot in the Championship game. Their white whale proved to be the OU Sooners as they lost to them both in the regular season and title game. They did rebound to thump Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl however. This year I expect more of the same from Mizzou. Daniel and standout wide-receiver Jeremy Maclin will prove to be one of the top passing combos in the country. The 17 returning starters have lead some to even place Mizzou in the national championship category. They face a test right off the bat with their border rival Illinois but they are the prohibitive favorite. They have some tests at Nebraska, and at Texas, but Kansas also faces Texas and it all comes to a head November 29th just as last year when the Jayhawks face off with Mizzou. No I will not insert a fat joke here at the behest of the Kansas haters, but I will say that KU’s schedule was favorable, even though they defeated Va Tech in the Orange Bowl in an impressive showing. Losing their number one Cornerback, Aqib Talib hurts them a lot if the newcomers can’t step up. It means they can’t just leave the best opposing WR out on an island like they often did with Talib. I still expect the Jayhawks to do well, but not as well as last season.
In the South, Texas Tech as become the darkhorse trendy pick. I expect the Red Raiders to do what they always have under Mike Leach: Score a ton of points, play little defense, and make a mid-upper level bowl. Graham Harrell behind center in Lubbock should toss many a TD throw to WR Michael Crabtree as he did last year, but the fun and gun style will also allow a slew of points for the opponents. I expect the Red Raiders to have another successful year like the 9-4 record of last year, but no division title, yet. Texas and Oklahoma will again vie for the South division and again the Red River shoot-out on October 11th, and this one honestly I see going either way. Stoops until recently had the Longhorns number, and I think they will triumph again as Sam Bradford figures to only improve on his strong year last year. Without Oklahoma facing a tough pre-Conference schedule (no Washington does not count as strong) they very well could be a team that waits in the wings for the BCS title bid if one of the favorites falters. With that being said, I do think the Sooners ride into Arrowhead only to get dusted by the Tigers looking for revenge.
Big XII picks
Big XII North: Missouri
Big XII South: Oklahoma
Below Expectations: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Above Expectations: Nebraska, Colorado
Player to Watch: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech (could top his 22 TDs of last year)
Game to Watch: Kansas @ Missouri, November 29th
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