2010 College Football Predictions: The Big XII

Yes, work is smoking me blah blee blah. Going to have to cut my predictions down a little bit in order to get them in before football starts (tomorrow!). So order of finish and a quick blurbity blurb. The Big XII was the almost the fault line for the complete earthquake and continental restructuring of college football. Nebraska and Colorado will be gone soon and Texas hogging a majority of the cash so who knows how long the conference will stay on its feet but it is for this year so let's pick this bitch.



NORTH

1. Nebraska- The Huskers lost all-world DT and Delhomme decapitator Suh. However, the schedule is quite favorable with their toughest test and only current ranked opponent Texas coming to Lincoln. Huskers are a trendy pick to run the Big 12 and even possibly get to the title game. It's hard to pick against that schedule, but I don't think they have title capability this year. That is unless Zac Lee or Cody Green at QB can suddenly find their ability to move the ball.

2. Missouri- Mizzou had some major egg on their face when it was made public they wanted to join the Big Ten "cool kids club" and were denied. They reacted to this disappointment in an all too familiar way: their players started boozin'. The Tigers should have a solid season but with the uncertainty around them, even a Holiday Bowl appearance would ring hollow.

3. Kansas State- I'm not sure how Bill Snyder will hold up now that he has been out of the cryogenic vault for so long, but I expect K-State to make a bowl and perform admirably in conference.

4. Kansas- Turner Gil has arrived to wash the mouth out of KU after Mark Mangino hurt some feelings. Mangino of course brought Kansas to prominence which explains some methods to his madness but did not excuse all of the behavior. Gil will try to keep that momentum going but use a different car to get there. Not so much this year.

5. Iowa State- .500? .500.

6. Colorado- You see that Timmy, that's Dan Hawkins job at Colorado going down in flames.

SOUTH

1. Texas- Yes, they lost a lot but does conventional wisdom always work for the purpose of truth and goodness? Galileo says fuck no. Texas gets Oklahoma and Nebraska back to back and after that they will cruise until the game against A&M. I think they beat the Sooners and lose to Nebraska and the Aggies. They win a tiebreaker for the head-to-head over the Sooners.

2. Oklahoma- Sooners will have a good season but fans will be disappointed in no Big 12 title game. Also this:

(via EDSBS)
3. Texas A&M- Popular sleeper? Maybe. Jerrod Johnson Heisman candidate? Possibly. Beat Texas? It could happen. Sherman leading the Aggies to a BCS berth? Nope.

4. Baylor- If Robert Griffin's knee is not made of lime jello the Bears could have a solid year.

5. Oklahoma State- Mike Gundy, the T. Boone tolls for thee.

6. Texas Tech- I'm a huge Tuberville fan, but Lubbock will need some time to adjust from dark rooms and pass-happy offense.

Player to watch: Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M
Exceeds Expectations: Kansas State
Fails Expectations: Oklahoma State
In-conference game to watch: Texas at Nebraska, Oct. 16
Out of Conference game to watch: Holy shit, there are not many good OOC games for the big boys. I'll take Oklahoma at Cincinnati, Sept. 25
BIG XII CHAMPION PREDICTION: NEBRASKA (this time the clock runs out)

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Conference Expansion: Taking the Next Step

Again this week talk of conference expansion has sprung up through out the internet. Boise State to the Mountain West. Who wins the Texas raffle? Who do they have to take in addition? Will Notre Dame finally bite the bullet and join the 21st century? All of these recurring questions are yet to be answered, but several things have become clear, most notably: Cash Rules Everything Around Me. With the ever expanding world of college athletics on the doorstep of yet another evolution (or de-evolution) the powers have proven they do not care about the fans or more importantly the student-athletes. Increased travel? Who cares? A diluted product? If it brings in more money, so be it. The idea that conferences can put out an increasingly unbalanced product that erodes rivalries and deprives fans of marquee matchups will continue to produce larger revenue is flawed. Eventually, their will have to be a truly seismic shift in college sports to continue increasing revenues? Why not skip this era of bloated conferences and jump to the biggest money grab in American Sports history. Beyond the break lies just that possibility.

In the SEC they currently use a 5-2-1 format for their football scheduling. This means a team plays their five division opponents plus one permanent non-division opponent and then two rotating non-division opponents. With this system the biggest of the big dogs Florida and Alabama play four out of every ten years. As sports fans we've been fortunate enough to get them in the SEC championship the last two seasons, because if not the last two national champions would not have met. If the SEC expands, these matchups would likely grow even more rare. The same case be can be made for many marquee matchups that don't serve as primary rivals (OSU-Michigan would be preserved... right? right?!?!) if conferences continue to expand. The increased load of a conference schedule would also likely have a negative impact on already meager non-conference scheduling. That's why I choose now to present my idea to not only make the schools more money, but to also provide the fans with a better experience.

My idea? The League of Extraordinary Teams!

What is it? A collection of the 40 best college athletics programs broken into five divisions. Each division would operate as a regional mini-conference. It would represent a return to the Pac-8, Big-8 eras where rivalries were at their apex. Schools would be selected not solely based on the success of their football teams (although in some cases they might), but on the overall success of their athletics programs. The LXT would be creating a year round cable network that would showcase many of these programs. So who makes up the LXT?

South: Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma St, and pick one: Missouri, Arkansas, Texas AM, Baylor, and Tex. Tech
North: Ohio St, Michigan, Wisconsin, ND (they have to accept or relinquish all relevance), Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa and Indiana
East: UNC, Duke, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky and pick two: Miami, FSU, Clemson, GT, and SCar
West: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, and pick three: Washington, Arizona St, Oregon St and Cal
North East: UConn, Cuse, Penn St, UVa, VT, Pitt, and pick two: Maryland, WVU, Rutgers, and BC

Don't get caught up on who made the list and who didn't. It's a rough hack and with college sports being as political as they are concessions would have to be made (Texas wants Baylor in? They're in, sorry somebody else). What these teams represent, however, are the very best in both college football, college basketball as well as many other non-revenue sports such as baseball, volleyball, wrestling, etc. Having dominance through out the sports year would allow the LXT to start a cable network similar to the Big Ten, but with a nationwide following and a ton more star power.

Fantasizing about a nationwide sports conference is fun, but why could it happen? Money. Currently the NFL sets the bar for TV contracts, not only because football is king, but also because the teams negotiate as one. People often regard the NFL as the gold standard in American Sports at this time, but the NFL's reach pales in comparison to that of college football, so if
the biggest and best decided to join forces, not only could they provide one season's worth of games, but four. The LXT network could be like the Big 10 network times 1000 in terms of content. Regional contracts could still be signed and networks would be lining up (similar to the NFL) to get a piece of the premiere college sports conference.

With all of the teams playing under one conference banner, the League would have nationwide reach and all money would be kept "in house" and distributed amongst the schools. Currently NFL schedule release day is the only one in American Sports that has become a big deal. With the LXT, the schedule makers could ensure that marquee games are staggered and release day would become a bigger phenomenon than NFL release day. How many prime time games does my school get? Who are the inter-division games? Every fan base would be buzzing. Just as the NFL works to maximize it's feature games the LXT could do the same. Four games every Thursday at two start times. Saturday's would feature a staggering number of games, but the marquee games would also be staggered so as to avoid conflicting. Week after week would feature various must see LXT games in primetime.

At the end of the regular season, the five division champions as well as the top seven non-division winners would compete to crown one LXT champion. The format would be similar to the BCS playoff proposed here previously. Of course, the LXT no longer needs the BCS skimming money off the top. Even more money kept in house.

Looking ahead to college basketball, the Christmas tournaments could be entirely LXT events ripe with desirable inter-division matchups. The return of mandatory home and homes within each division would restore some of the lost luster of rivalries and individual division tournaments would feed into a small LXT Elite Eight style tournament.

A move such as this would be unprecedented, but so would the financial gain for the schools. It would change the landscape forever, but the product would be better. As it stands, the landscape is changing, but not maximizing the money earned or the product on the field/court. Both the fans and the schools would win. every would win, except for of course the other division one schools, but when there's money to be made that doesn't matter. The schools are already proving that on their own.

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The BCS Agenda Delivers the "Best"

It's time once again to take a look at the BCS. Many other bloggers, writers and pundits are playing "what if" with Iowa, USC, TCU, Boise State and others, which is ironic considering the entire system is designed to remove all chance. Last season we took a look at the computer polls, pointing out several of the flaws, while conceding the inherent problems of the polls, but now it's time to take aim at the whole of the system. Often times people will refer to BCS voters having an 'agenda,' here's a look at what that just might mean.

The BCS is the sports version of American Idol minus the teenie boppers voting on their cell phones. It's one big popularity contest. Some talking heads lament the possibility of the dark horses in the National Championship, 'Do you really want to watch Cincinnati vs. Alabama? Ugh', but that's not the way sports works (or should work). We didn't get LeBron-Kobe even though it would've gotten better ratings, because the Cavs lost. We haven't had a Manning Bowl, Yankees-Dodgers world series since 1981 or an all-Canada Stanley Cup Final in twenty years, because sports has no script. The great fallacy of the BCS and why some are tricked into believing the system is either a) working or b) is "better than what we had" lies in the desirability of the match-up. While various fanbases get upset annually, by and large the masses are pleased due to the marquee nature of the Championship Game. Look back at the Finals teams from all the major sports in the last decade. Every one of them has Tampa Bays, Georgia Techs, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Cardinals and New Jersey Nets sprinkled through out them and yet the BCS has never had a team that's not one of the winningest or iconic programs of the last twenty years. Look quickly at the list of teams that have competed for the crystal football since the BCS came about: Oklahoma (4x), Ohio State (3x), Florida State (3x), Florida (2x), Miami (2x), USC (2x), LSU (2x), Texas, Nebraska, Tennessee and Virginia Tech. Not one dark horse program and of those only Virginia Tech is not considered football royalty, but in addition to being one of only two BCS conference teams undefeated that season (going into the bowl) they also had a once-in-a-lifetime dynamic player in Michael Vick. On the flip side, consider the lesser teams that have been part of the discussion, but ultimately left out of the game: Kansas St., Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Auburn, Wisconsin, and Louisville among others. Even among the power players there's a pecking order, with several seemingly deserving teams being hurdled by late season voting shenanigans. There's a reason. College football is the golden goose of sports and the select few who get those golden eggs annually are not interested in sharing.

Another primary difference between the BCS and American Idol; the BCS voters have a vested interest in the outcome. It's difficult to assess how much being a voter for the national championship is worth, but it certainly has value. Being voters for the National Champion gives the pollsters' opinions weight, generates more exposure for them and their employers and therefore puts more money in their pocket. Inserting a non-BCS conference team into the national championship may not be the death knell for the current system, but establishing the precedent could lead to the erosion of the system that gives the writers the current stature they enjoy. Not to go all conspiracy theorist, but the BCS polls being released midway through the season is no coincidence. College football enjoys the most passionate fanbases of any sport in America, other rankings provide us with a general lay of the land week to week and the top teams know from this point on the must win out in order to ensure their place in a BCS bowl. So why do they need to be released? College basketball doesn't seed March madness weeks out and inform us who's in and who's out. Could it not be argued that the BCS is unwilling to take a multi-million dollar gamble by preventing the pollsters from seeing how the rankings stack up before the final week? Let's say Iowa stays perfect and finishes ranked third in the polls behind the SEC and Big 12 champions, but as it stands the computers love the Hawkeyes and could potentially push them into the National Championship game. If you stood to make millions more on a marquee national championship game, particularly in a down economic time, would you take the chance that Iowa could unseat Texas by not releasing the results until the final day? This way pollsters are able to see which teams the computers will eliminate (Boise State) and conversely the pollsters can see which teams the computers love and need to be wary of, so they can justify them down slightly in the polls. Consciously or subconsciously, pollsters will do what they think is needed to ensure the "best" national championship match-up. We saw this manipulation at work last year with Oklahoma receiving a late push in the polls on the strength of the margin of victory over Texas Tech.

Even more so than the voters, the primary TV networks benefit from always having a chalk match-up in the title game. ESPN and CBS both root for the SEC and ESPN has contracts with all of the BCS conferences. If a Mountain West team were to play for a national championship, it would be a tremendous boost to the Versus network. While it seems ludicrous to suggest at this point, but having the National Champion of college football and (dare I say) the NHL would provide a tremendous foothold for Versus towards creating a dent in the juggernaut that is ESPN and we know they don't like competition in Bristol. ESPN loves their "bracket busters" in college basketball, but why not in college football? They want to protect their interest in the big conferences. ESPN stays out of the picture when it comes to non-conference scheduling in college football, but they regularly pitch ideas like the ACC/Big 10 challenge in basketball, because they know those games will be money makers and the conferences need not worry about the impact on teams making the NCAA tournament. In college football, they don't have that luxury and playing such games (after the Kickoff Classic) only serves to potentially hurt their investments. When listening to the talking heads at any of these networks, remember that they themselves are in invested in these conferences and seeing someone else's team in the national championship making the other guy money instead of them, isn't in their best interest. (That said, I believe you will see ESPN slowly turn up the heat on the possibility of a college football playoff, but that's a discussion for another day.)

Discussing the "what if" scenarios of college football through out the season can be equal parts fun and maddening, but in reality few if any of those scenarios have any chance of coming to fruition regardless of the outcomes on the field because they just don't fit the agenda. The big six conferences rely on their guaranteed money from BCS games and are not eager to share and both the voters and the TV networks have vested interests in delivering what those conferences want. Unfortunately, the best sport America has is currently run like Olympic figure skating. Style points and what flag you play under are just as important as performance. There is a man behind the curtain and he has no interest in getting the right National Championship game, only the best one. It's the only way they can keep their money and the masses satisfied. That's the BCS, the Business of College Sports.

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Clifton Brothers: The Dark Side of the (John) Wall

In between listening to Jaydiohead and lamenting that other people are picking up on one my draft sleepers, Darrius Heyward-Bey, I began to ask a question that all Carolina hoops fans should consider as we drift down from Cloud "5". If one of the best players in the country was in Roy's backyard, why did it take so long for him to start recruiting John Wall? The answer is simple, but the implications could be a stain that lasts long after Wall has revived hoops in Sacramento (I prefer to project two drafts in advance... more after the break...)


Read almost any story about John Wall and you'll see Brian Clifton's (pictured, right) name subtly mentioned. You've probably scanned past the name looking for words like "commitment" "announcement date" and "faster and stronger than Derrick Rose." Clifton is a former agent and AAU coach that serves as John Wall's mentor. Less than a year ago, it was the Clifton brothers, but then Dwon Clifton took a job as Baylor's Director of Player Development. Dwon coached Wall's AAU team and explains Baylor as the one outlier on Wall's list of prospective teams. Not surprisingly, Baylor's not been interested in declaring how much Clifton is being paid, but it's not a coincidence that a man whose coaching experience was based primarily in the Carolinas found himself with potentially two Big XII "coaching" opportunities (Oklahoma State was also interested) so similar to the Dalonte Hill's salary capless role at K-State. Brian Clifton has been openly stating Baylor's the best choice for Wall, but Wall's savvy to the game. When asked if Dwon got the job because of him, Wall responded, "Oh, I think it was," Wall said. "You know, whichever AAU coach gets a job in college is hoping that he gets the point guard or the best player from that organization with him."

Other accusations include routing all coaches through the Clifton brothers instead of directly approaching Wall or his mother and a direct connection with other agents. Gary Parrish at CBS has done a tremendous job of identifying the smoke near the recruiting firestorm that has been John Wall since Roy called to check in. John Wall would likely be the difference between a very good young team and a title contending team the likes we haven't seen in sixteen years, but when Roy works so hard to recruit from Bremerton to North Babylon how would he have missed John Wall in Raleigh? Clifton and Williams don't get along, possibly because Roy's got enough cache to approach Wall directly, but as long as Clifton is around Wall could end up being the recruit Roy regrets. His first instinct must have been to stay away, but now his competitiveness may be getting the best of him. Wall's best chance to win is at Carolina and Carolina's tempo is the best chance for him to shine (with respects to the used car salesman in Lexington), but is a chance for number six worth it? As much as I'd like to see Wall in the baby blue, Roy must tread carefully.

Note: If both Lawson and Ellington don't go pro, the Heels likely won't have a scholarship for Wall.

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Shackleford Files 011: Bubbling Over (Updated)

It's bubble discussion time and if any schmo that can run his motorcycle into a tree can offer his opinions on bubble teams, we figure why can't us (it worked for Phillies fans, after all). Cleet and I take a look at all of the potential bubble teams, what work they have left to do and who's definitely in or out. Due to the length we've broken the podcast up by conferences. First up, the ACC...




For those of you that would rather listen to the podcast in it's entirety, you can listen or download it HERE.

ACC
In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College.
Bubble: Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech.



Big Ten
In: Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue.
Bubble: Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern.



Big XII
In: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Texas (with yesterday's win).
Bubble: Kansas State and Oklahoma State.



Big East
In: UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, and Syracuse.
Bubble: West Virginia (split decision) and Providence.



Pac-10
In: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and Cal.
Bubble: Arizona.



SEC
In: LSU (begrudgingly) and Tennessee.
Bubble: South Carolina, Florida, and Kentucky.



WCC
In: Gonzaga.
Bubble: St. Mary's.



Atlantic 10
In: Xavier and Dayton.
Bubble: Rhode Island.



Mountain West
In: BYU and Utah.
Bubble: San Diego State and UNLV.



The Rest of the Story
In: Memphis.
Bubble: UAB and Creighton.
Out: Davidson.

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Shackleford Files 010: Where March is Just Around the Corner

Woohoo double digits! We discuss roundball of the college and professional varieties. Who's the most likely to make the Final Four and who could be on the outside looking in. Did any of the trades in the NBA change the landscape and who are the teams to beat looking ahead. We ask all the tough questions in sports including ones about SBTB and ugly uniforms. Cleet questions his leaders and Catfish is glad at least one media member is getting a second chance. Please listen and leave your opinions below. Thanks for checking us out and you can download the podcast HERE.

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Allow me to be the first...

...to re-post this video.

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The BCS, a Soapbox, and a Schedule

College football is poised for one of the greatest stretch runs in recent memory. Every year since 2002 there has been at least two and as many as eight two-loss teams in the top twenty five at this point in the season, but entering this past weekend there were zero. With Missouri and Kansas losing there are now two two-loss teams in the top 25, but it’s hard to dispute that parody in college football has reached the tipping point (or what should be). The bowl season should be incredible (provided we don’t get the “We deserved a better bowl” attitude from too many teams) and it hopefully will grant many of the matchups that fans long for, but due to geography, scared athletic directors, or scheduling incompatibility have yet to occur.

All of these tremendous weeks, bowls, and at the end of it lays not a pot of gold, but a steaming pile. Looking ahead, what potential national championship matchup will appease the masses? Any game that involves Penn State will be discounted by SEC or Big XII fans (which ever gets left out). If any undefeated team gets left out (most likely Penn State), the critics will crow. A game that features USC, but neglects other one loss teams will be derided by everyone outside of Compton. Invariably, the question will be asked, “Did the BCS get it right?” This question is as biased as campaign advertisements, and with no clear cut criteria, how can it be accurately answered? When a team hoists the trophy on January 8th, they will not be undisputed and more than likely it will be based largely on the matchup they got in their final game. Matchups in the championship game playing a huge role are nothing new. Last year, if Missouri or West Virginia had won on the final weekend, we’d have had a different matchup and a different champion. But looking ahead, college football has never had as many teams that could stake a claim to the big game.

The college football mantra, “Every Game Matters,” will continue to haunt fans, as a late loss by any number of teams will rob their schools of a shot at the big game. Looking at USC, how many of the BCS top ten would be favored in a national championship game against Pete Carroll’s squad? Potential betting lines should not be used to pick a national championship game, but would anyone feel comfortable giving points to the Trojans? The two most likely candidates to be favored are Texas or Alabama, both schools which have tough remaining schedules as well as conference championships to contend with. A loss to Oregon State early in the season should not end the Trojans season, nor should it cost the fans an opportunity to see them compete for a national championship. With the current BCS top ten, there are no less than seven guaranteed losses left (not including conference championships). When these teams lose a single game it should not preclude them from the quest for a championship. “Every Game Matters” makes a great soundbyte, but as parody continues to prevail it will only continue to rob these schools and fans of the best matchups that college football has to offer.

Stepping off my soapbox, here’s a pocket composite schedule for the rest of the season for the BCS top 20 as well as a few teams of interest to me.

Final Note: Are they going to invite several candidates for the Heisman trophy or just award it to Colt McCoy now. Even if they don't end up in the national championship game, he's going to win it. Right?

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College Football Predictions: The Big XII

Everyone has that image in their head of the gold prospector/cowboy firing his six-shooters in the air and dancing around like a crazy person. That, to me, is what comes to mind when I think of the Big XII this year in football. I expect to see a lot of offense, long scoring plays, and lots of coaches on the sideline throwing their headsets to the ground. There are four legitimate contenders to the conference title this year, and five if you count Texas Tech which I guess I will, for now. The spots in the Championship Game at Arrowhead in Kansas City could very well come down to the last few weeks. This year I’m banking on the Gary Pinkel train to keep rolling, and the Missouri Tigers to reach the summit and take the Big XII title and BCS bid this year.

The Tigers had been seen as a team of also-rans in years past. Always coming up short in conference, and even having victory kicked away from them one year. Last year proved to be the turnaround. Chase Daniel led the Tigers offense to the North Title and a spot in the Championship game. Their white whale proved to be the OU Sooners as they lost to them both in the regular season and title game. They did rebound to thump Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl however. This year I expect more of the same from Mizzou. Daniel and standout wide-receiver Jeremy Maclin will prove to be one of the top passing combos in the country. The 17 returning starters have lead some to even place Mizzou in the national championship category. They face a test right off the bat with their border rival Illinois but they are the prohibitive favorite. They have some tests at Nebraska, and at Texas, but Kansas also faces Texas and it all comes to a head November 29th just as last year when the Jayhawks face off with Mizzou. No I will not insert a fat joke here at the behest of the Kansas haters, but I will say that KU’s schedule was favorable, even though they defeated Va Tech in the Orange Bowl in an impressive showing. Losing their number one Cornerback, Aqib Talib hurts them a lot if the newcomers can’t step up. It means they can’t just leave the best opposing WR out on an island like they often did with Talib. I still expect the Jayhawks to do well, but not as well as last season.

In the South, Texas Tech as become the darkhorse trendy pick. I expect the Red Raiders to do what they always have under Mike Leach: Score a ton of points, play little defense, and make a mid-upper level bowl. Graham Harrell behind center in Lubbock should toss many a TD throw to WR Michael Crabtree as he did last year, but the fun and gun style will also allow a slew of points for the opponents. I expect the Red Raiders to have another successful year like the 9-4 record of last year, but no division title, yet. Texas and Oklahoma will again vie for the South division and again the Red River shoot-out on October 11th, and this one honestly I see going either way. Stoops until recently had the Longhorns number, and I think they will triumph again as Sam Bradford figures to only improve on his strong year last year. Without Oklahoma facing a tough pre-Conference schedule (no Washington does not count as strong) they very well could be a team that waits in the wings for the BCS title bid if one of the favorites falters. With that being said, I do think the Sooners ride into Arrowhead only to get dusted by the Tigers looking for revenge.

Big XII picks
Big XII North: Missouri
Big XII South: Oklahoma
Below Expectations: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Above Expectations: Nebraska, Colorado
Player to Watch: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech (could top his 22 TDs of last year)
Game to Watch: Kansas @ Missouri, November 29th

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