Mountain West Conference Wants to Play

A college football post just days before Carolina v. Duke? When it involves a playoff system, our focus can be shifted. The Mountain West conference is taking the banner of smaller conferences themselves to the BCS ivory tower. They propose that conferences that have a better than .400 winning percentage against the BCS conferences over a two-year proposal, a new system that would grant only themselves an additional automatic bid. They also suggest a tremendous shift in the selection of the teams, moving away from polls and the computers to a 12-man selection committee.

As a digression, how far are we from no longer feeling obligated to give Notre Dame special treatment? They're treated as holier than thou by the BCS and this proposal, which guarantees them a seat at the selection committee table. We've reached the point that no one outside of South Bend expects them to do much, and they can either fall in line or fall further behind. At this point, they're just another program and the top bowls are no better or worse without them.

What about that playoff? The Mountain West offers an 8-team playoff, with the 9th and 10th place teams playing in a BCS bowl, but not part of the playoff. This attempts to keep the "power" conferences appeased, but avoiding a 20th ranked team in the playoff (Cincinnati, they're referring to you). Assuming the seven (if the MWC is added) automatic bids, it would only allow for at most three at-large bids, which is a fair compromise, but that 5th BCS game would be such a scarlet letter for the conferences involved, that no one would go for this idea. The need to include more than eight again points to our suggestion of the sixteen team playoff. Full Proposal

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Do You Know Who's Picking Your National Championship?

We're on the record supporting a twelve team playoff, but since college football still doesn't have one, we turn our focus to the BCS. Every college football fan understands that the BCS rankings rule the roost, but most couldn't name half of the computer polls that annually can play a tremendous role in the selection of a national championship match-up. All but one of the polls are shrouded in mystery regarding their selection process and more often than not, they produce some questionable results. With the systems being "secret" there exists no checks and balances to ensure proper results. It's with this skeptical eye that we took a look at each of the polls that comprise the BCS and quickly found many glaring flaws. More after the break...

The Harris Interactive Poll is, “[c]omprised of former players, coaches, administrators and current and former members of the media who have committed to submit rankings for the top 25 college football teams each week. These panelists were randomly selected from among more than 300 nominations submitted by the 11 Division I-A Conference offices and the independent schools. The panel has been designed to be a statistically valid representation of all 11 Division I-A Conferences and independent institutions.”

Individual Harris poll voters have found themselves routinely criticized at the the end of the season (the only time votes are made public). This week, a Harris voter, Pat Quinn, was quoted as saying, “I think Alabama and Penn State will probably play for the national championship. They're the only two undefeated teams, aren't they?” Harris Interactive attempted to apply a standard practice that could counter error or bias, but were denied by the conference commissioners (and the Notre Dame AD). The Harris Interactive poll accounts for one-third of the BCS standings. A full list of voters can be found here.

USA Today Coaches Poll – Composed of 61 D-1 coaches, the poll accounts for one-third of the BCS poll. Of the 61 head coaches, eight or 13% of the voting pool will not be coaching their team next year. Tommy Bowden, Joe Glenn, Ty Willingham, Jeff Genyk, Sylvester Croom, Phil Fulmer, Rocky Long, and most recently Hal Mumme have all been fired or resigned. Hal Mumme, no longer the coach at New Mexico State, was the coach that last season voted Hawaii number 1 heading into the bowl season. A point of intrigue with the poll, Oklahoma edged Texas by a mere one point with two first place votes to none for the Longhorns. The two votes for Oklahoma in the top spot appear to be from Mike Leach and Sooners head coach, Bob Stoops EDIT:Stoops had a vote last season, but does not have one this year (HT: CGB). Mack Brown also has a vote, but chose Alabama at the top spot. Had Mack been self-serving, the teams would've been tied in the poll. Of note, Urban Meyer does have a vote, potentially explaining the one top vote the Gators got. A list of voting coaches and a conference breakdown can be found at the end.

The final third of the BCS rankings are composed of six computer rankings, with a team's highest and lowest ranking being thrown out before computing their ranking.The six computer ranking providers are Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin and Peter Wolfe. After issues with teams with weak schedules having an advantage, each ranking now has a strength of schedule element.

Anderson & Hester – They boast the last original and unchanged computer ranking used in the BCS. They also claim to have the most accurate strength of schedule and conference strength rankings. The strength of schedule component makes their rankings even more curious. They have Utah ranked at number 2, behind only Alabama. The top two schools have SOS rankings of 56 and 61, while number 3 Texas and 4 Oklahoma have the fifth and seventh ranked schedules. Despite having such a pronounced advantage in strength of schedule, Utah earned the nod solely for being undefeated. Looking at Texas and Oklahoma's schedule, the lone ranked team that Texas faced that Oklahoma did not was Missouri, and they played no team of note in non-conference games. Oklahoma, on the other hand played TCU and Cincinnati. Another flaw appears when looking at the conference rankings. They have the ACC being the top conference, with the Big 12 second, the SEC third, and the Big East fourth. Most glaringly the rankings place the SEC closer to the Big East and the Big Ten than either the Big 12 or the ACC. Another telling sign of the flaws is the ranking of Oklahoma State. They're 9-3, with all of their losses coming to teams that were at one point in the season ranked number one. They find themselves ranked 19 and behind the likes of Georgia Tech and Michigan State who have the same records, but without facing that level of competition. They also find themselves behind Missouri, who has the same record and who OK State defeated in Missouri.

Jeff Sagarin – The computer poll with the most name recognition currently has Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech as the top three. According to Sagarin's poll, three of the top ten teams have not defeated a top ten team this season: Boise State, and the two SEC heavy hitters Alabama and Florida. The top four SOS rankings all come from the ACC: Virginia, Duke, NC State, and Wake Forest. Texas and Oklahoma are the only two top ten teams with SOS rankings in the top 20 (12 and 17, respectively). Consensus number one in the human polls, Alabama's SOS (73) is only three spots higher than TCU's (76). The biggest gripe against Sagarin's rankings this year: FCS top team James Madison is currently ranked 24th.

Richard Billingsley – Billingsley implements a starting ranking for teams, that can impact their rankings similar to the human polls. Billingsley, a self-proclaimed Oklahoma fan, did start the season with the Sooners at a higher ranking than the Longhorns. The only computer other than Anderson & Hester with Alabama at the top spot, followed by Oklahoma and Florida. Texas comes in at four, despite a tougher schedule and their one loss coming on the road to a top team, as opposed to Florida who lost at home to an unranked team. The glaring errors appear in the 9 and 12 spots. Number 9 is Ohio State, one spot above Penn State despite the Nittany Lions win in Columbus. At 12, Billingsley currently has BYU. They're ranked above TCU, who has the same record and destroyed BYU 32-7 in October. He also has conference rankings posted with the Big 12 at number one. Curiously, though he has the SEC at 2 and the ACC all the way down at five, behind both the Big and Pac 10. What's so curious about the ACC's ranking, they have 11 teams ranked in the top 53. Conversely, half of the SEC is ranked 55 or lower. Clearly, this system is heavily biased towards conferences with an elite team. The individual SOS rankings are also cause for concern. He understandably has Baylor at 1 having faced all three of the Big 12 south teams, but 2, 3, and 4 all come from the SEC: Mississippi St, Georgia, and Florida. This is largely because Billingsley gives credit for the opponent's ranking “at the time”. This led to Florida getting credit for beating three top ten teams this season. Their wins over LSU, South Carolina, Hawaii and Georgia all appeared to be more impressive at the time. A ranking like this does not provide an accurate assessment of a team's schedule.

Colley's Matrix – The only open-source computer ranking has Texas ranked number one, followed by Oklahoma and Alabama. Texas's SOS of 4, seems high compared to Oklahoma's 13 which was discussed before. Alabama's SOS of 82 is by far the highest of any top 10 BCS conference school. Colley has the Big 12 as the top conference, followed by the ACC, who barely edged out the SEC. Interestingly, the Pac-10 is far closer to the MAC than to the Mountain West. As a fan, these rankings appear to most closely resemble my sensibilities. It would have Texas in the Big XII championship and assuming victory facing the winner of the SEC championship.

Massey Ratings – Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas serve as the top three, but Utah comes in at four ahead of both Alabama and Florida. Most concerning about this poll is the fluctuation. Teams regularly jump multiple places (up or down) even at this late time. Georgia Tech and Boston College jumped 7 places, Boise St and Utah 3 spots into the top 10, but Florida and Florida State both remained unmoved after their game. Georgia was number 7 until their loss to Georgia Tech. Florida sits at 6 and Georgia at 7 weeks after their game? Sigh, these are the people picking our championship game.

Dr. Peter Wolfe – The Big 12 triumvirate reigns with Oklahoma at the top. Alabama and Utah round out the top 5. With Boise State finishing ahead of Florida. Another poll that seems to have difficulty dealing with undefeated teams, regardless of quality of opponents faced. These rankings have Florida closer to BYU than Texas Tech. OF note, at 16 and 17 Georgia and Georgia Tech with the same record, and Georgia Tech having just defeated Georgia.

Most of the people behind the computer rankings will acknowledge that they're just a piece of the puzzle and not a fail safe solution, but there are far too many glaring weaknesses in the majority of these rankings. They seem to be in the ballpark, but fall well short particularly when trying to gauge undefeated teams. If we assume they're 95% accurate, that's far from acceptable. If a doctor performs surgery and it's 95% successful, it probably wasn't successful. If that seems too extreme, if you go to a drive-thru window and they get your order 95% correct is that acceptable? These computer ranking by and large have major flaws and no other billion dollar business would accept such shoddy work out of people working on the companies golden goose. Again, the only logical move is to a twelve team playoff. Annually, the BCS fails some conference and some team. This year is setting up to be no different.

For more on the computers, this recent article gives background and additional insight.

USA TODAY Coaches Poll voters:
Fired
Tommy Bowden, Clemson
Joe Glenn, Wyoming
Ty Willingham, Washington
Jeff Genyk, Eastern Michigan
Sylvester Croom, Miss. St.
Phil Fulmer, Tennessee
Rocky Long, New Mexico
Hal Mumme, New Mexico St

ACC (6)
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
Bobby Bowden, FSU
Tommy Bowden, Clemson *
Butch Davis, UNC
Jim Grobe, Wake
Tom O'Brien, NC St

Big 10 (7)
Jim Tressel, Ohio State
Bret Bielema, Wisconsin
Mark Dantonio, Mich. St
Bill Lynch, Indiana
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
Joe Tiller, Purdue
Ron Zook, Illinois

Big 12 (7)
Art Briles, Baylor
Mack Brown, Texas
Gene Chizik, Iowa St.
Dan Hawkins, Colorado
Mike Leach, Tx Tech
Bo Pelini, Nebraska
Gary Pinkel, Missouri

Big East (4)
Greg Schiano, Rutgers
Randy Edsall, Uconn
Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville
Jim Leavitt, S. Florida

Conf. USA (6)
Neil Callaway, UAB
Todd Graham, Tulsa
George O'Leary, Central Florida
Mike Price, Texas-El Paso
Mark Snyder, Marshall
Bob Toledo, Tulane

MAC (6)
Jeff Genyk, Eastern Michigan*
Turner Gill, Buffalo
Butch Jones, Central Michigan
Doug Martin, Kent State
Shane Montgomery, Miami (Ohio)
Frank Solich, Ohio

Mountain West (4)
Joe Glenn, Wyoming*
Rocky Long, New Mexico*
Gary Patterson, TCU
Kyle Whittingham, Utah


Pac-10 (5)
Mike Bellotti, Oregon
Rick Neuheisel, UCLA
Mike Riley, Oregon St
Jeff Tedford, California
Tyrone Willingham, Washington*

SEC (7)
Steve Spurrier, S. Carolina
Sylvester Croom, Miss. St.*
Phil Fulmer, Tennessee*
Urban Meyer, Florida
Les Miles, LSU
Mark Richt, Georgia
Tommy Tuberville, Auburn

Sun Belt (4)
Mario Cristobal, Florida International
Todd Dodge, North Texas
Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee

WAC (4)
Pat Hill, Fresno State
Hal Mumme, New Mexico State*
Chris Petersen, Boise State
Dick Tomey, San Jose State

Independents
Charlie Weis, Notre Dame

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The BCS, a Soapbox, and a Schedule

College football is poised for one of the greatest stretch runs in recent memory. Every year since 2002 there has been at least two and as many as eight two-loss teams in the top twenty five at this point in the season, but entering this past weekend there were zero. With Missouri and Kansas losing there are now two two-loss teams in the top 25, but it’s hard to dispute that parody in college football has reached the tipping point (or what should be). The bowl season should be incredible (provided we don’t get the “We deserved a better bowl” attitude from too many teams) and it hopefully will grant many of the matchups that fans long for, but due to geography, scared athletic directors, or scheduling incompatibility have yet to occur.

All of these tremendous weeks, bowls, and at the end of it lays not a pot of gold, but a steaming pile. Looking ahead, what potential national championship matchup will appease the masses? Any game that involves Penn State will be discounted by SEC or Big XII fans (which ever gets left out). If any undefeated team gets left out (most likely Penn State), the critics will crow. A game that features USC, but neglects other one loss teams will be derided by everyone outside of Compton. Invariably, the question will be asked, “Did the BCS get it right?” This question is as biased as campaign advertisements, and with no clear cut criteria, how can it be accurately answered? When a team hoists the trophy on January 8th, they will not be undisputed and more than likely it will be based largely on the matchup they got in their final game. Matchups in the championship game playing a huge role are nothing new. Last year, if Missouri or West Virginia had won on the final weekend, we’d have had a different matchup and a different champion. But looking ahead, college football has never had as many teams that could stake a claim to the big game.

The college football mantra, “Every Game Matters,” will continue to haunt fans, as a late loss by any number of teams will rob their schools of a shot at the big game. Looking at USC, how many of the BCS top ten would be favored in a national championship game against Pete Carroll’s squad? Potential betting lines should not be used to pick a national championship game, but would anyone feel comfortable giving points to the Trojans? The two most likely candidates to be favored are Texas or Alabama, both schools which have tough remaining schedules as well as conference championships to contend with. A loss to Oregon State early in the season should not end the Trojans season, nor should it cost the fans an opportunity to see them compete for a national championship. With the current BCS top ten, there are no less than seven guaranteed losses left (not including conference championships). When these teams lose a single game it should not preclude them from the quest for a championship. “Every Game Matters” makes a great soundbyte, but as parody continues to prevail it will only continue to rob these schools and fans of the best matchups that college football has to offer.

Stepping off my soapbox, here’s a pocket composite schedule for the rest of the season for the BCS top 20 as well as a few teams of interest to me.

Final Note: Are they going to invite several candidates for the Heisman trophy or just award it to Colt McCoy now. Even if they don't end up in the national championship game, he's going to win it. Right?

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Brigham Young Brought Out of BCS At-Large Conversation

The non-BCS conference teams know what it takes to make it to one of the BCS bowls in January. It is not a secret; they have to go undefeated and beat at least one BCS conference opponent along the way. The BYU Cougars had accomplished this so far this season and had a 16 game winning streak overall coming into Thursday night. It is hard for any team to stay perfect for a whole season, because on any given night your team can have a bad game but TCU dominated BYU and put to rest their chances of breaking into the BCS. BYU had won at Washington and dismantled UCLA 59-0, but they could not stop TCU's offense or pash rush and gave them some crucial turnovers. The Horned Frogs jumped up 23-0 at halftime and never looked back. Now it is the other BCS Buster's turn to attempt to turn BYU's failure into their opportunity. More on possible busters after the break.

Utah currently sits 13 in the coaches poll and 14 in the AP. If they can get by their lesser opponents coming up (Colorado St. and New Mexico) they host TCU on a November 6th Thursday night game. 16 days later they host BYU in the final game of the season. TCU should move up in the polls and I doubt BYU will fall out of them which gives Utah the chance to beat 2 ranked opponents in 2 out of the last 3 weeks of the season. This will no doubt lift Utah into the top 12 which guarantees them a spot in a BCS bowl. BYU will fall behind them, and one of the 5 Big XII teams ahead of them is assured to lose more than once. Utah is defintely in the best position to make a BCS bowl.

Some fun facts about Horned Frogs before the discussion turns to TCU. The Texas Horned Frog is actually a lizard, not a frog or toad. It also has the ability to shoot blood out of its eye up to 5 feet. That being said, TCU coach Gary Patterson has the ability to make the state of Utah bleed out many orafices by the end of this season. With the exception of their previous game where they beat Colorado St. 13-7, TCU has won every game by double digits this year. They do already have one loss which hurts them, but it was to the currently top ten ranked Oklahoma Sooners. The Frogs lost in Norman 35-10, which is not too bad a showing and provides the chance to be pardoned for the loss and be an exception to the undefeated rule. That loss set TCU back to the 24th position in the coaches poll and unranked in the AP. That will chane this week but they have a lot of ground to make up. If TCU can win at Utah and knock off their other 3 opponents left who are Wyoming, UNLV, and Air Force then they put themselves in a position for a BCS argument. The problem may lie in their non-conference schedule which relies on a 31-14 win over Stanford. If TCU wins out though, they do have the ingredients to break into the BCS, but the WAC currently has a team in front of them.

That team is Boise State. You remember them don't you? Amazing that a non-BCS conference team could develop a reputation but Boise has. Right now the Broncos sit 15 and 16 in the AP and Coaches poll respectively, just mere spots from the magic number 12 position. The Pac Ten seems to be the whipping boy for these teams' résumés, as Utah, BYU, TCU, and Boise State are a combined 5-0 agaisnt the Pac Ten. The Broncos' big non-conference win came at Oregon where they beat the Ducks 37-32. They also beat a capable Bowling Green, and Southern Miss from Conference USA. No earth-shaking victories, but very solid. Boise State has Hawaii on the blue field tonight and then four more WAC games leading to the big finale against Fresno State. If Boise runs the table and wins that critical game against the Bulldogs, they will have a claim to a spot in the BCS. The question may be whether the top 12 would allow Utah/TCU and an undefeated Boise State team to be included.

The final at-large hopeful(not that these teams are listed in any particular order)are the Cardinals of Ball State. They are currently undefeated at 7-0 and have non-conference wins over Navy and at Indiana. The Cardinals have been impressive in their wins besting all their opponents by double digits with their smallest margin of victory coming by 12 over Navy. Their only big loss has been at wide receiver where Dante Love suffered a cervical spine fracture in the win at Indiana. Ball State has some tricky MAC conference games left with Northern Illnois, at Miami(OH), and Western Michigan. If they manage to navigate that they still have the MAC title game which if they win that big and remain undefeated they could move up in the polls. Still, it looks as if the Cardinals are the longest shot of these possible BCS busters to make some noise, although their claims would be legitimate.

The road to the final BCS rankings is long and senseless and there is no telling what will happen ahead and even more importantly, how the voters and computers will react. BYU may still be in the hunt even though those that argue that the college football regular season is a "playoff" to get the end result we repeatedly see teams that should have been "eliminated" rise from the ashes and awarded a major bowl invitation. All these teams can do is focus on what they can control, which is the result on their fields of play on that given day. After that, we are in the incompetent hands of the BCS....again.

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