2010 College Football Predictions: The Pac Ten

The Pac Ten has been using its Extenze as Jimmy Johnson directed. They will be expanding but first they can soak up their traditionally goodness. USC was knocked off their perch last year, then took a hammer to the nuts. What will happen on the left coast this year?

1. Oregon- You can have QBs rob people, RBs punch people, but the bottom line is Chip Kelly can get an offense to score. They may get into trouble when they play a very tough, physical defense. /Scans schedule. They'll be fine until bowl season.

2. Oregon State- Jacquizz is magical. Biggest little man in college football. Mike Riley has quietly been building a solid non-national factor team up there in Corvalis. Early season losses to TCU and Boise State will kill any national buzz but they work well while under the radar.

3. USC- Lane Kiffin, people don't like you but as long as your wife likes you and your check-signing hand likes you, people like me thinking your a dick doesn't matter.

4. Arizona State- Tough conference schedule, but something tells me Dennis Erickson rubs his old, crusty knees together and makes the top half of the conference.

5. Washington- Jake Locker, you are the latest overhyped QB to be in the Heisman talks and on the draft gurus big board way too high, what are you going to do next? He's going to be incredibly mediocre, that's what.

6. UCLA- Rick Neuheisel must think he is riding high now that USC has come down to earth. Wins are not automatic Rick.

7. Stanford- Andrew Luck will be good, rest of the team won't.

8. Arizona- Dissapointing season for the Wildcats

9. Cal- Not the Best year for the Bears. C wut I did dere?

10. Washington State- Bads.

Player to Watch: Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State
Exceeds Expectations: Oregon State
Fails Expectations: Arizona
In-conference game to watch: Oregon at Oregon State, Dec. 4
Out of conference game to watch: UCLA at Texas, Sep. 25

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Conference Expansion: Taking the Next Step

Again this week talk of conference expansion has sprung up through out the internet. Boise State to the Mountain West. Who wins the Texas raffle? Who do they have to take in addition? Will Notre Dame finally bite the bullet and join the 21st century? All of these recurring questions are yet to be answered, but several things have become clear, most notably: Cash Rules Everything Around Me. With the ever expanding world of college athletics on the doorstep of yet another evolution (or de-evolution) the powers have proven they do not care about the fans or more importantly the student-athletes. Increased travel? Who cares? A diluted product? If it brings in more money, so be it. The idea that conferences can put out an increasingly unbalanced product that erodes rivalries and deprives fans of marquee matchups will continue to produce larger revenue is flawed. Eventually, their will have to be a truly seismic shift in college sports to continue increasing revenues? Why not skip this era of bloated conferences and jump to the biggest money grab in American Sports history. Beyond the break lies just that possibility.

In the SEC they currently use a 5-2-1 format for their football scheduling. This means a team plays their five division opponents plus one permanent non-division opponent and then two rotating non-division opponents. With this system the biggest of the big dogs Florida and Alabama play four out of every ten years. As sports fans we've been fortunate enough to get them in the SEC championship the last two seasons, because if not the last two national champions would not have met. If the SEC expands, these matchups would likely grow even more rare. The same case be can be made for many marquee matchups that don't serve as primary rivals (OSU-Michigan would be preserved... right? right?!?!) if conferences continue to expand. The increased load of a conference schedule would also likely have a negative impact on already meager non-conference scheduling. That's why I choose now to present my idea to not only make the schools more money, but to also provide the fans with a better experience.

My idea? The League of Extraordinary Teams!

What is it? A collection of the 40 best college athletics programs broken into five divisions. Each division would operate as a regional mini-conference. It would represent a return to the Pac-8, Big-8 eras where rivalries were at their apex. Schools would be selected not solely based on the success of their football teams (although in some cases they might), but on the overall success of their athletics programs. The LXT would be creating a year round cable network that would showcase many of these programs. So who makes up the LXT?

South: Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma St, and pick one: Missouri, Arkansas, Texas AM, Baylor, and Tex. Tech
North: Ohio St, Michigan, Wisconsin, ND (they have to accept or relinquish all relevance), Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa and Indiana
East: UNC, Duke, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky and pick two: Miami, FSU, Clemson, GT, and SCar
West: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, and pick three: Washington, Arizona St, Oregon St and Cal
North East: UConn, Cuse, Penn St, UVa, VT, Pitt, and pick two: Maryland, WVU, Rutgers, and BC

Don't get caught up on who made the list and who didn't. It's a rough hack and with college sports being as political as they are concessions would have to be made (Texas wants Baylor in? They're in, sorry somebody else). What these teams represent, however, are the very best in both college football, college basketball as well as many other non-revenue sports such as baseball, volleyball, wrestling, etc. Having dominance through out the sports year would allow the LXT to start a cable network similar to the Big Ten, but with a nationwide following and a ton more star power.

Fantasizing about a nationwide sports conference is fun, but why could it happen? Money. Currently the NFL sets the bar for TV contracts, not only because football is king, but also because the teams negotiate as one. People often regard the NFL as the gold standard in American Sports at this time, but the NFL's reach pales in comparison to that of college football, so if
the biggest and best decided to join forces, not only could they provide one season's worth of games, but four. The LXT network could be like the Big 10 network times 1000 in terms of content. Regional contracts could still be signed and networks would be lining up (similar to the NFL) to get a piece of the premiere college sports conference.

With all of the teams playing under one conference banner, the League would have nationwide reach and all money would be kept "in house" and distributed amongst the schools. Currently NFL schedule release day is the only one in American Sports that has become a big deal. With the LXT, the schedule makers could ensure that marquee games are staggered and release day would become a bigger phenomenon than NFL release day. How many prime time games does my school get? Who are the inter-division games? Every fan base would be buzzing. Just as the NFL works to maximize it's feature games the LXT could do the same. Four games every Thursday at two start times. Saturday's would feature a staggering number of games, but the marquee games would also be staggered so as to avoid conflicting. Week after week would feature various must see LXT games in primetime.

At the end of the regular season, the five division champions as well as the top seven non-division winners would compete to crown one LXT champion. The format would be similar to the BCS playoff proposed here previously. Of course, the LXT no longer needs the BCS skimming money off the top. Even more money kept in house.

Looking ahead to college basketball, the Christmas tournaments could be entirely LXT events ripe with desirable inter-division matchups. The return of mandatory home and homes within each division would restore some of the lost luster of rivalries and individual division tournaments would feed into a small LXT Elite Eight style tournament.

A move such as this would be unprecedented, but so would the financial gain for the schools. It would change the landscape forever, but the product would be better. As it stands, the landscape is changing, but not maximizing the money earned or the product on the field/court. Both the fans and the schools would win. every would win, except for of course the other division one schools, but when there's money to be made that doesn't matter. The schools are already proving that on their own.

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The BCS Agenda Delivers the "Best"

It's time once again to take a look at the BCS. Many other bloggers, writers and pundits are playing "what if" with Iowa, USC, TCU, Boise State and others, which is ironic considering the entire system is designed to remove all chance. Last season we took a look at the computer polls, pointing out several of the flaws, while conceding the inherent problems of the polls, but now it's time to take aim at the whole of the system. Often times people will refer to BCS voters having an 'agenda,' here's a look at what that just might mean.

The BCS is the sports version of American Idol minus the teenie boppers voting on their cell phones. It's one big popularity contest. Some talking heads lament the possibility of the dark horses in the National Championship, 'Do you really want to watch Cincinnati vs. Alabama? Ugh', but that's not the way sports works (or should work). We didn't get LeBron-Kobe even though it would've gotten better ratings, because the Cavs lost. We haven't had a Manning Bowl, Yankees-Dodgers world series since 1981 or an all-Canada Stanley Cup Final in twenty years, because sports has no script. The great fallacy of the BCS and why some are tricked into believing the system is either a) working or b) is "better than what we had" lies in the desirability of the match-up. While various fanbases get upset annually, by and large the masses are pleased due to the marquee nature of the Championship Game. Look back at the Finals teams from all the major sports in the last decade. Every one of them has Tampa Bays, Georgia Techs, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Cardinals and New Jersey Nets sprinkled through out them and yet the BCS has never had a team that's not one of the winningest or iconic programs of the last twenty years. Look quickly at the list of teams that have competed for the crystal football since the BCS came about: Oklahoma (4x), Ohio State (3x), Florida State (3x), Florida (2x), Miami (2x), USC (2x), LSU (2x), Texas, Nebraska, Tennessee and Virginia Tech. Not one dark horse program and of those only Virginia Tech is not considered football royalty, but in addition to being one of only two BCS conference teams undefeated that season (going into the bowl) they also had a once-in-a-lifetime dynamic player in Michael Vick. On the flip side, consider the lesser teams that have been part of the discussion, but ultimately left out of the game: Kansas St., Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Auburn, Wisconsin, and Louisville among others. Even among the power players there's a pecking order, with several seemingly deserving teams being hurdled by late season voting shenanigans. There's a reason. College football is the golden goose of sports and the select few who get those golden eggs annually are not interested in sharing.

Another primary difference between the BCS and American Idol; the BCS voters have a vested interest in the outcome. It's difficult to assess how much being a voter for the national championship is worth, but it certainly has value. Being voters for the National Champion gives the pollsters' opinions weight, generates more exposure for them and their employers and therefore puts more money in their pocket. Inserting a non-BCS conference team into the national championship may not be the death knell for the current system, but establishing the precedent could lead to the erosion of the system that gives the writers the current stature they enjoy. Not to go all conspiracy theorist, but the BCS polls being released midway through the season is no coincidence. College football enjoys the most passionate fanbases of any sport in America, other rankings provide us with a general lay of the land week to week and the top teams know from this point on the must win out in order to ensure their place in a BCS bowl. So why do they need to be released? College basketball doesn't seed March madness weeks out and inform us who's in and who's out. Could it not be argued that the BCS is unwilling to take a multi-million dollar gamble by preventing the pollsters from seeing how the rankings stack up before the final week? Let's say Iowa stays perfect and finishes ranked third in the polls behind the SEC and Big 12 champions, but as it stands the computers love the Hawkeyes and could potentially push them into the National Championship game. If you stood to make millions more on a marquee national championship game, particularly in a down economic time, would you take the chance that Iowa could unseat Texas by not releasing the results until the final day? This way pollsters are able to see which teams the computers will eliminate (Boise State) and conversely the pollsters can see which teams the computers love and need to be wary of, so they can justify them down slightly in the polls. Consciously or subconsciously, pollsters will do what they think is needed to ensure the "best" national championship match-up. We saw this manipulation at work last year with Oklahoma receiving a late push in the polls on the strength of the margin of victory over Texas Tech.

Even more so than the voters, the primary TV networks benefit from always having a chalk match-up in the title game. ESPN and CBS both root for the SEC and ESPN has contracts with all of the BCS conferences. If a Mountain West team were to play for a national championship, it would be a tremendous boost to the Versus network. While it seems ludicrous to suggest at this point, but having the National Champion of college football and (dare I say) the NHL would provide a tremendous foothold for Versus towards creating a dent in the juggernaut that is ESPN and we know they don't like competition in Bristol. ESPN loves their "bracket busters" in college basketball, but why not in college football? They want to protect their interest in the big conferences. ESPN stays out of the picture when it comes to non-conference scheduling in college football, but they regularly pitch ideas like the ACC/Big 10 challenge in basketball, because they know those games will be money makers and the conferences need not worry about the impact on teams making the NCAA tournament. In college football, they don't have that luxury and playing such games (after the Kickoff Classic) only serves to potentially hurt their investments. When listening to the talking heads at any of these networks, remember that they themselves are in invested in these conferences and seeing someone else's team in the national championship making the other guy money instead of them, isn't in their best interest. (That said, I believe you will see ESPN slowly turn up the heat on the possibility of a college football playoff, but that's a discussion for another day.)

Discussing the "what if" scenarios of college football through out the season can be equal parts fun and maddening, but in reality few if any of those scenarios have any chance of coming to fruition regardless of the outcomes on the field because they just don't fit the agenda. The big six conferences rely on their guaranteed money from BCS games and are not eager to share and both the voters and the TV networks have vested interests in delivering what those conferences want. Unfortunately, the best sport America has is currently run like Olympic figure skating. Style points and what flag you play under are just as important as performance. There is a man behind the curtain and he has no interest in getting the right National Championship game, only the best one. It's the only way they can keep their money and the masses satisfied. That's the BCS, the Business of College Sports.

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Present Your Ocular Atttention To These Games

Starting tomorrow at noon there will be a parade of games that are worth tuning into. There may be no shifting on the national landscape of college football but there are some critical match-ups and a chance to get a sense of where teams stand.

Saturday

(9)Miami @ (11) Virginia Tech, 3:30 on ABC

Even as a Miami fan I am tired of the question of whether the U is back or not. I still say no but just look at the commenting thread on any of the bevy of articles on UM this week and you will see such gems stating how the U is back and cannot be beat. Anyone can be beat in Blacksburg and as Tyrod Taylor showed last week, the Hokies do not even need to be in control of the game to pull one out. Still, as Chris Brown points out the passing attack of the Canes has been formidable even in its simplicity. This game more than likely comes down to Miami offensive coordinator Mark Whipple vs. legendary defensive coordinator for Tech Bud Foster. Whoever wins gets a leg up in the ACC and will be in the top ten come next week.

(6) Cal @ Oregon, 3:30 on ABC

You may be saying, "Cleet, these first two games are at the same time?!" Well while I will be paying full attention to the game above, no reason why this game should not occupy your attention during commercials and timeouts. Last week in casual conversation Catfish mentioned to me how Michigan State was the Clemson of the midwest. Clemson is known for being a team with high expectations from their fans who attract good talent and maybe have one year or two where their program was the best in the land yet always fall flat on their faces. I concurred with his observation and took it further by saying Cal is the Clemson of the west. Here is step 1 to proving me wrong. Cal travels to Eugene tomorrow to take on a Oregon team that just snapped the longest FBS winning streak in the country by beating Utah. When Cal has high hopes, it usually drops one of these Pac-Ten games. Now with USC losing to Washington, Cal has the inside track on the conference title if they can beat the Ducks and then beat USC next week at home. It is a tall order for sure, but the Bears have been hyped up and they have the premiere player in Jahvid Best. You know how when each season starts the Heisman hype is beyond annoying and the lead candidate usually lacks the big performances to back it up? Well enter Best who is averaging 7.8 yards per carry and has 8 rushing TDs through 3 games. I will pause a moment to allow that to sink in. If Oregon wants any chance in this game, they have to put Best on the ground.



Iowa @ Penn State, 8:00 on ABC

I am really not being ABC's boy here, I swear. Most mention of this being the Saturday night big game is being met with groans and eye rolls. However, considering Penn State has played Akron, Syracuse, and Temple nobody really knows what they can do. There is the revenge factor for the Lions since Iowa crushed their title hopes a year ago, but to me this is more of a battle for who will occupy the spot of contender for the Big Ten title with Ohio State. Iowa fans have been praying for the Kirk Ferentz to take the big leap with the program and once again their hopes are high. Do not expect many fireworks here, both teams will put forth solid defensive efforts and the 20 point barrier may not be crossed, by both teams combined. But if Penn State loses the Big Ten will have a huge identity crisis now that their two featured schools will be all but out of the title picture.

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FYI: USC Picked To Win Pac Ten

In an amazing shocker, Taylor Mays and company are projected to win the Pac Ten for 8th consecutive year. You might say they could be in trouble for the latest alleged NCAA violations but who are we kidding, the Trojan army has proved impervious to NCAA sanctions. Pete Carroll, the Priam of the program himself thinks he is only "in the middle" of his great run. Perhaps Carroll has done too much praising to the sun god in LA or maybe he knows that while the walls of Troy stand, no NCAA investigator or rival recruiter can break them. There could come a day however, perhaps with the new knowledge that Carroll used a former NFL assistant as a consultant which may be against the rules, when somebody finds a way to bring down the walls of Troy. It has not been all smiles and daisies for USC though, despite going 59-6 the last 5 years, they have only two titles to show for it this decade. With the determination not to be shut out of the national title game this year, USC will once again put all distractions aside and more than likely roll through the Pac Ten. Maybe there is one coach or NCAA official out there intrepid enough to employ the tactic that will bring Carroll and his team down: The Trojan Rabbit.




New commish, coaches in Pac-10, but USC still tops [SportingNews]

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Shackleford Files 011: Bubbling Over (Updated)

It's bubble discussion time and if any schmo that can run his motorcycle into a tree can offer his opinions on bubble teams, we figure why can't us (it worked for Phillies fans, after all). Cleet and I take a look at all of the potential bubble teams, what work they have left to do and who's definitely in or out. Due to the length we've broken the podcast up by conferences. First up, the ACC...




For those of you that would rather listen to the podcast in it's entirety, you can listen or download it HERE.

ACC
In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College.
Bubble: Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech.



Big Ten
In: Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue.
Bubble: Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern.



Big XII
In: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Texas (with yesterday's win).
Bubble: Kansas State and Oklahoma State.



Big East
In: UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, and Syracuse.
Bubble: West Virginia (split decision) and Providence.



Pac-10
In: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and Cal.
Bubble: Arizona.



SEC
In: LSU (begrudgingly) and Tennessee.
Bubble: South Carolina, Florida, and Kentucky.



WCC
In: Gonzaga.
Bubble: St. Mary's.



Atlantic 10
In: Xavier and Dayton.
Bubble: Rhode Island.



Mountain West
In: BYU and Utah.
Bubble: San Diego State and UNLV.



The Rest of the Story
In: Memphis.
Bubble: UAB and Creighton.
Out: Davidson.

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Shackleford Files 010: Where March is Just Around the Corner

Woohoo double digits! We discuss roundball of the college and professional varieties. Who's the most likely to make the Final Four and who could be on the outside looking in. Did any of the trades in the NBA change the landscape and who are the teams to beat looking ahead. We ask all the tough questions in sports including ones about SBTB and ugly uniforms. Cleet questions his leaders and Catfish is glad at least one media member is getting a second chance. Please listen and leave your opinions below. Thanks for checking us out and you can download the podcast HERE.

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The BCS, a Soapbox, and a Schedule

College football is poised for one of the greatest stretch runs in recent memory. Every year since 2002 there has been at least two and as many as eight two-loss teams in the top twenty five at this point in the season, but entering this past weekend there were zero. With Missouri and Kansas losing there are now two two-loss teams in the top 25, but it’s hard to dispute that parody in college football has reached the tipping point (or what should be). The bowl season should be incredible (provided we don’t get the “We deserved a better bowl” attitude from too many teams) and it hopefully will grant many of the matchups that fans long for, but due to geography, scared athletic directors, or scheduling incompatibility have yet to occur.

All of these tremendous weeks, bowls, and at the end of it lays not a pot of gold, but a steaming pile. Looking ahead, what potential national championship matchup will appease the masses? Any game that involves Penn State will be discounted by SEC or Big XII fans (which ever gets left out). If any undefeated team gets left out (most likely Penn State), the critics will crow. A game that features USC, but neglects other one loss teams will be derided by everyone outside of Compton. Invariably, the question will be asked, “Did the BCS get it right?” This question is as biased as campaign advertisements, and with no clear cut criteria, how can it be accurately answered? When a team hoists the trophy on January 8th, they will not be undisputed and more than likely it will be based largely on the matchup they got in their final game. Matchups in the championship game playing a huge role are nothing new. Last year, if Missouri or West Virginia had won on the final weekend, we’d have had a different matchup and a different champion. But looking ahead, college football has never had as many teams that could stake a claim to the big game.

The college football mantra, “Every Game Matters,” will continue to haunt fans, as a late loss by any number of teams will rob their schools of a shot at the big game. Looking at USC, how many of the BCS top ten would be favored in a national championship game against Pete Carroll’s squad? Potential betting lines should not be used to pick a national championship game, but would anyone feel comfortable giving points to the Trojans? The two most likely candidates to be favored are Texas or Alabama, both schools which have tough remaining schedules as well as conference championships to contend with. A loss to Oregon State early in the season should not end the Trojans season, nor should it cost the fans an opportunity to see them compete for a national championship. With the current BCS top ten, there are no less than seven guaranteed losses left (not including conference championships). When these teams lose a single game it should not preclude them from the quest for a championship. “Every Game Matters” makes a great soundbyte, but as parody continues to prevail it will only continue to rob these schools and fans of the best matchups that college football has to offer.

Stepping off my soapbox, here’s a pocket composite schedule for the rest of the season for the BCS top 20 as well as a few teams of interest to me.

Final Note: Are they going to invite several candidates for the Heisman trophy or just award it to Colt McCoy now. Even if they don't end up in the national championship game, he's going to win it. Right?

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College Football Predictions: The Pac-10

For the final BCS Conference preview we head out West. And in a huge shocker we choose USC to take the title. Despite the sliding kneecaps and the loss of more talent, Pete Carroll and crew should take the Pac-10 title and compete for a spot in the BCS title game. It will not be as glamorous as years past with the absolutely dominating performances, but USC is simply more talented than their opponents with the exception possibly of Ohio State. The stumbles the Trojans had last year including the inexplicable loss to Stanford and Jim Harbaugh at home, and a loss in Eugene to Oregon fuel the fire for this year. They have a similar chip on their shoulder to Georgia in that both teams were playing better than anyone in the country at the end of last year, but while Georgia’s case was shot down by not winning their Conference, USC could not overcome a loss to the trees. There might be a few close contests in the mix, but the Trojans should once again be champs of the Pac-10.

Of course we must give a nod to the September 13th match-up with Ohio State. It will be a game of epic proportions and I think it will be more the margin of victory than who wins the game that will be the most important result to take away from the game. Offensively, the Trojans will lean on their running backs and why not? They have plenty of depth at the position, a sturdy offensive line, and look for Joe McKnight to take off this year behind center Kris O’Dowd and company. I have a feeling USC will muscle defenses around in conference this year. The oft overlooked USC defense will be the backbone of the team. This version of the Trojan army should be more of a grinding team led by staunch linebacker play of Brian Cushing. Right now it appears that Sanchez will be able to play behind center. As long as he or whoever is taking snaps can stay clean and avoid big mistakes, the Trojans should roll in Conference play.

Their main competition should come from Arizona State. Somehow Dennis Erickson has been washed clean of the mess he left at Miami. It is now but a distant memory and he has had work ever since, bouncing around in the NFL and Oregon State. Last season the Sun Devils had a surprisingly good year, and even had thoughts of winning the Pac 10 until USC beat them at home. I see this year’s team winning the games they are supposed to, but I think Georgia is seeing their match-up with the Devils in Tempe on September 20th, as a statement game and the Devils have not won a big game in a while. Quarterback Sam Carpenter adds new true freshman wideout Gerell Robinson to the offensive attack, but it may be the defense which proves to be the Achilles heel. Oregon came into this season ranked 20th in the coaches poll but if there were questions as to how the team would do without Dennis Dixon or Jonathan Stewart, it was put to the side after the tragic drowning of redshirt safety Todd Doxley. The running game should be fine with Jeremiah Johnson, but questions at QB for a spread offense are never a good thing. He has accomplished a lot already but I think we will really see a gritty coaching performance by Mike Belotti this year. I was expecting UCLA to over perform this year, but with Ben Olson out for two months, the Bruins might be in too deep of a hole by the time they return. I’m sure Phillip Fulmer would be doing cartwheels if he was physically able after learning that UCLA will be sans Olsen for their match-up. The rest of the Pac10 will duke it out as always, but I think the axe will fall on Willingham in Washington this year unless they win a bowl game.

Pac 10 picks
Conference Champion: USC
Below Expectations: Washington, Oregon
Above Expectations: Oregon State, Washington State
Player to watch: Joe Mcknight, RB, USC
Game to watch: Arizona State @ USC, October 11th

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