You have to appreciate this year's Final Four logo. It really represents the event being held in Indianapolis; bland, boring, and a little chunky. Somehow I ended up with New Mexico alongside the other 3 number 1 seeds. If it happens I get to leave it up, but again I was saying that about my Gonzaga and Xavier picks from years past.
My final picks are nothing extraordinary, but if it does shake out like this there will be some good games ahead.
National Semifinals
Kansas over Syracuse: In a rematch of the 2003 championship game Kansas proves too tough for the Syracuse zone. This Kansas team is not given credit enough defensively, and their ability to limit the Orange from scoring will provide the difference. The 2-3 zone is not terribly complex, and Boeheim has said he wants to get to the tourney so he won't see anymore Big East teams that know how to beat it. Given a week though, and the driving ability of Collins and others, Kansas wins by almost double digits.
Duke over New Mexico: New Mexico would be treated like the red-headed stepchild if this Final Four comes to fruition. I would expect Duke to win in this match-up. The trio of Scheyer, Singler , and Smith, or the reverse oreo line as I call them (a tribute to the Mighty Ducks) have been brilliant and most importantly, when one falters the others seem to bring up the slack. The last few years it looked like only Singler was playing with the confidence of a top team. This year all the Duke players are. It is that Duke swagger, except it is a lot more hokey than swagger. It is that same thing we began hating Duke for in the early 90s. It is pale swagger, Laettner swagger, I'm better than you swagger. New Mexico comes into Indy in awe and shoots horribly, coach K yells at officials and Duke shoots twice as many foul shots.
National Championship
Kansas over Duke: Not really going out on a limb picking KU to win it all but I have been saying for weeks I was going with them and I am not changing now. CBS would love this scenario, because as we all know conspiracy nuts, Duke is the biggest draw of all time. Of course the pre-game hype will focus on coach K slurpage, the historic nature of the programs and of course, Grant Hill's dunk from their 1991 title game meeting which Duke won 72-65.
Thursday, March 18
Tournament Time: Final Four Picks
Monday, April 6
Monday Night In Detroit
The championship game is set and it should be an entertaining game, but just because it is a big time game does not mean it cannot be a clunker. Carolina is the team that was the favorite to win this thing from the beginning but a few lapses in the ACC and a couple of injuries took them down from the ranks of untouchables. Now, it appears no team can touch them but with the crowd behind them, the Spartans should give them their best shot.
Getting back quickly to Saturday's games:
"If they want to be the upset story again this year, the only chance they have is shoot over 60%."
Nova shot 32.9%, including 5-27 from 3.
"The key for the Spartans is rebounding, they usually outrebound their opponents by the widest margin in the country but they face a terrific rebounding team in UConn. Their defense will frustrate the Huskies but can they keep them off the offensive boards?"
The rebounding was pretty even, Sparty totaled one more on the offensive side, but making that a wash they exploited the Huskies' weaknesses; bench production, point guard play (Kemba Walker struggled big time), free-throw shooting, and lack of a 3 point shooter. Michigan State deserves the credit, they attacked and knew where to attack to take the victory.
As for tonight, Michigan State shot 6-19 from behind the line Saturday while Carolina shot 11-22. Sparty needs to improve that clip and they need Suton to have a big game. Nova outrebounded UNC so there is no reason to think Michigan State cannot since they are one of the best rebounding teams. MSU needs to have the same transition mentality they had with UConn, get out on the break when they have the advantage and prevent transition on them. Of course, with Ty Lawson that may be impossible. The only chance Sparty will have in my mind is to hope the Heels miss some of those open looks and rebound them when they do.
Prediction is Carolina gets up early, Sparty puts up a valiant effort and hangs around by a 7-10 clip, and then the Heels stick the dagger in late and Catfish dances a jig and gets a Hansbrough tatoo.
Saturday, April 4
Final Four Frenzy
That's right, I'm working on a Saturday. No, do not fear I will be able to watch the games and luckily it will be coinciding with K-man's bachelor party festivities. At least I am getting paid for my weekend work, right? Wait, what? Noooooo. Anyway it affords me a few moments to put together the crap(s) we have heard all week about the game tonight.
Villanova
You may have heard, but the Wildcats won the 1985 national championship as underdog 8 seeds over Georgetown. In that title game they shot 78.6% from the field. So far this tournament the 3 seed underdog Wildcats have shot a total 45.1% in all their games. If they want to be the upset story again this year, the only chance they have is shoot over 60%. Turnovers and rebounding will be important but Carolina has too much in too many areas in this match-up. You cannot stop the Heels from scoring, so if Nova wants a shot, they will have to be ripping the nets and that means early, right from the tip. You fall behind early, UNC smells blood and it is over. The Wildcats need look no further than the tape from the Oklahoma game against Carolina; miss a ton of shots, early fall behind even while playing at a slow pace. Those shots have to fall for Nova and that requires a way above average performance in shooting.
North Carolina
Trying to stop any one facet of the Heel's offense is literally a roll of the dice. Even if one of their offensive weapons comes up snake eyes, you will likely get a strong performance from another area. Gambling jokes aside, Ty Lawson is getting undeserved heat for his casino trip, but the press was dying for a story outside of Nate Miles and good coaching. Carolina is going to come out swinging in this game and put the pressure on Nova, if Nova cannot keep up, it will be over quickly. I think Carolina's point of attack needs to be Lawson and Hansbrough. There is probably no guard in the country that can contain Lawson and he is the conduit for getting the Heels open shots, particularly in transition. Getting the ball to Hansbrough will lead to him powering his way to the bucket or better yet, drawing fouls on Dante Cunningham, which cripples Nova's inside game.
Prediction: UNC takes this one in a snoozer.
Michigan State
Everyone wants to give Tom Izzo credit and who can blame them. The man runs a clean program (apparently), he gives hope to his crumbling state, he has reached 5 Final Fours and cut the nets down once. He is one of the best tournament coaches in the country right now and a lot of people talk about the one day turnaround from 1st to 2nd round and Sweet 16 to Elite 8. One glaring stat that is not so pretty is his 1-4 record in national semifinals. Granted you are playing the toughest competition at that point but the other teams have a whole week to prepare for you instead of one day in the Elite 8. The key for the Spartans is rebounding, they usually outrebound their opponents by the widest margin in the country but they face a terrific rebounding team in UConn. Their defense will frustrate the Huskies but can they keep them off the offensive boards? Suton will probably not be covered by Thabeet who will hang back in the paint, but if Goran hits the threes like he did against Lousiville, the Spartans will have the edge. They do have to be careful about getting too hyped by playing in front of the home crowd, the energy you get from that will wear off quickly. 
Connecticut
A.J. Price has been through a lot, and he struggled at times against Mizzou in the Elite 8, but he hit the big shots when he needed to and finished with 18. He needs to go 20+ in this game in my opinion for the Huskies to win. Thabeet does not need to score, only rebound, play defense, and have the occasional dunk or tip in down low. Stanley Robinson will hopefully continue his great play and Jeff Adrien has to hit his 15 foot jumper. If Adrien does that it creates about the same effect as Suton and will make it easier to rebound. The guard duo of Craig Austrie and Kemba Walker are also important, they cannot turn the ball over and need to drive and create as the UConn offense does get stagnant at certain times. Jim Calhoun is 4-0 in the final four and it is 10 and 5 years since his last trip, if they had a healthy Jerome Dyson I would be banging the drum for them, but instead it is left up to the collective effort of their players. They have to get the contributions from all areas to win as opposed to the pick your poison action of Carolina.
Prediction: UConn takes it in a squeaker.
Thursday, March 19
Pick-Counterpick: Final Four Picks
What will happen at Ford Field on April 6? Somebody will win a championship and it sure as hell won't be the Lions. Based on our brackets, Catfish and I finish off our NCAA tournament picks.
CLEET'S FINAL FOUR
Pittsburgh over North Carolina: To me this is a once in a blue moon kind of team for Pitt, and they are strong exactly where Carolina is. LeVance Fields-Ty Lawson, DeJuan Blair-Tyler Hansbrough, Sam Young-Wayne Ellington. I know I am taking a chance considering there would be a definite Hansbrough flop attempt or two on Blair, but I think the refs are going to let Pitt play and if that happens, they can win.
Memphis over Kansas: The Tigers get a small measure of revenge on KU. This year, Memphis is shooting around 70% from the line, compared to their paltry 61% a year ago.
National Championship
Memphis over Pitt 77-71: In a similar fashion to Utah after Van Horn and Kentucky after Mercer, Memphis gets one better than the year before with their stars Dorsey, CDR, and Rose. The last time I correctly picked a National Champion before the tournament was in 2007 with the Florida repeat. I did not like making that pick, this one however I am fine with if it comes to fruition. Calipari was a smarmy prick at UMASS but I think his years of fail with the Nets tempered him somewhat. I felt bad for him after the game last year and if he got a chance to cut the nets down, I have no problem with that.
CATFISH'S FINAL FOUR
North Carolina over Pitt: If I pick this wrong, it's going to hurt a lot less than watching the Heels fall in the Final Four again. It will be called the de-facto national championship, despite being the semi-final. Two point guards that take tremendous care of the ball, two big forwards that are going to get theirs. Sam Young will present matchup problems for the Heels, but I look for Lawson's speed (if they're here, he's playing) and Ellington's shooting to be the difference makers (and maybe Blair foul trouble to make me breathe easier).
Purdue over Wake Forest: Wake tries to win the game in the first five minutes by bombing shots, allowing Purdue to get comfortable in the national spotlight. Wake's youth and inexperience finally bites them as Purdue slows down the tempo and executes in the halfcourt.Teague's turnovers which have been an issue all season, finally cost the Deacons.
National Championship
North Carolina over Purdue: Tyler Hansbrough isn't my favorite Tarheel, but I don't think I've ever wanted someone to win a title as much as hope he does. Give me Lawson's quickness and Hansbrough's veteran savvy over the Boilermakers.
