Usually you want to see a doctor when that occurs but the for the NCAA Tournament this was inevitable. Thankfully the horrible super expansion did not come to fruition for now. There will be 4 extra teams added to the at-large list, with those teams playing early in the week along with teams 65 through 68 playing the other two. This offers a good balance of teams that came in just on the good side of the bubble a showcase and the small guys will be mixed in. It is highly superior to 65 team format that featured two small mid-majors taking on each other in Dayton. This of course was made in the interest of making the NCAA more money which translates as making the schools more money which is what we all want right? Well more cash in the pockets of these schools has no bearing for most of us, but its an inevitable course of events, so at least some good can come of that.
The two games featuring the final bubble teams are sure to be teams selected for their watchability(/Bud Light'd?) so there will still be that room for conspiracy theories like team A only got in because it made for a good opening round game and Duke was given a road paved with schools for deaf, blind austic kids. The bottom line is still survive and advance, perhaps the truest thing Jimmy V ever said and definitely truer than anything he said to NCAA investigators. So we can breathe easier, knowing the tournament has expanded in a small and positive way for now.
NCAA got it right with tourney expansion [Yahoo]
Monday, July 12
NCAA Tournament Experiences Swelling
Tuesday, April 6
Sometimes Life Isn't Fair
Aside from Duke fans, everyone was unhappy with last night's outcome. However, while I count myself as one who was pulling against the Devils, Duke earned this title. People can talk about how the heavyweights were down this year or how Duke had an easy run, the bottom line is that they are still standing after the smoke is clear. They earned the belt. I thought the game was surprisingly well officiated. Once again the production from CBS was horrid. Nantz and Kellog are all over the place. I enjoyed Clark behind the desk but not on game commentary. Replays were no where to be found on key fouls. We already knew Howard was going to get in foul trouble. Butler just did not knock down enough of those open shots. Their halfcourt defense was again spectacular. Even with their field goal troubles the Bulldogs had two shots to win, and came up painfully short. I commend Gordon Hayward and above all Brad Stevens for their accomplishment. I was off my couch jumping on that last Hayward halfcourt heave, it looked like it was good off the glass on my TV. But alas it was not to be, sometimes the underdog everyone is pulling for does not win. I half-expected David Anspaugh to run out onto the court and tell the players to run it again until Hayward made the shot. The Blue Devils are the champs, for better or worse, that is what makes this tournament great; you are not always expecting or happy of the result. There is much random chance, just like life. If life were like the BCS, we could manipulate all our circumstances to form our best outcomes. A pleasant notion but one that would ultimately fail like when the machines tried to make the Matrix a paradise where all their humans had their desires come true. Millions of crops were lost.
I still prefer the basketball side of things because sometimes there is no clear way to determine who is the best team. Football still has no set criteria. In the NCAA tournament, you have to play whoever is in your bracket and win. No polls, no margin of victory, no bias toward the big 6 conference (well, maybe just a little). It's a cruel reality for the anti-Duke segment, but it is reality. Coach K has one for the pinky, Zoubek was a difference maker, and Wojo finally has that elusive ring. Now to the harsh reality of my tournament picks and it is not pretty, "How Wrong Were We": 2010 NCAA Tournament edition.
Midwest Region: 9/15
South Region: 4/15 (I stand by my Robert Morris pick! They got hosed by the officiating.)
West Region: 7/15
East Region: 8/15
My Final Four: Kansas (uggg), Syracuse (oops), Duke (squirrel finds nut), New Mexico (why did I ever trust Alford?). I had Kansas beating Duke in the finals.
So out of a possible 63 games, excluding the opening round game (which I got wrong), I got 29 right. That is 46%. I also had Butler losing to UTEP in the first round. Overall a horrible state of affairs for my prediction skills.
pic via
Monday, April 5
Country Braces For Possible Duke Triumph
When the season began many thought Duke and Butler were going to be good, possibly Final Four good. Not many thought they would be playing for the title tonight. Conspiracy theorists have united against the hated program that is Duke. The same people who said their road was paved out for them also had them going out before Indianapolis. I am no Dukie and I loathe the flopping manequin defense and the moving screens of Thomas and Zoubek, but if the Blue Devils win tonight they win. I mean that the banner will go up in Cameron, Coach K will continue to be fellated by the media, and the record books will state 2010 belonged to Duke. Despite a Lance Thomas elbow to the face of Joe Mazzula in Saturday night's semifinal, Duke is viewed by its fans as a paragon of the seedy world of college basketball. Where fans say it was just an elbow, detractors can rewind the video and see Thomas measuring the blow and then nailing Mazzula in the face. A Duke win will not be easy for people to swallow (myself included), hell Catfish has lost enough hair over this, but a win is a win and a title is a title.
On the other side we see Butler as a longshot. This is the first game where I think Butler had little chance. First concern is Matt Howard, who is concussed but should play. Even if he does he will probably pick up 2 fouls faster than Jim Nantz can spin a witty anecdote or read a Masters promo. One certain thing is that Butler needs to hit their open shots to have any hope tonight. In the semifinal they were fortunate enough to have the Spartans also struggle from the field. Duke's scorers cannot be banked on to have all 3 be cold and in fact in their semifinal all 3 were on. If players like Veasley, Jukes , and Hahn can hit the open jumpers, the Bulldogs can stay close.
One last note on Butler. The all-knowing Dick Vitale took a jab at Butler after Saturday's game by saying they were able to beat teams that were not at full strength, pointing to Syracuse's Onuaku and Michigan State's Kalin Lucas. Fair enough if Dickie V wants to play that game, but let's look at who he picked to win Saturday: the Spartans. So he wants to give an excuse to two teams he had beating Butler, yet he picked those teams to beat the Bulldogs despite the injuries. It is all part of the fun of his March picks. Vitale jumped the shark for me 11 years ago when he picked UConn in his preseason magazine number 1 and said they would cut the nets down. Then Duke had a seemingly unstoppable run in the tourney until they met UConn and lost the title and wouldn't you know Vitale flipped on his pick and chose Duke. And that is way too many words to waste on him.
We think Duke wins this game, and by double digits. Now would be as great a time as any for a pleasant surprise.
Friday, April 2
Links Heading Into The Weekend
A few drips dew on the vast sports interweb as we head toward a warm spring weekend. This metaphor working for you?
Al Pacino slated to play Pat Riley in an upcoming film about the "Showtime" Lakers. [Flicksided]
Shaun Rogers is a big man, with a loaded gun. [Freep]
So it turns out the ocean floor is actually just like Starship Troopers, look at this bug! [YBNBY]
A run-in with Greg Oden in Bloomington in which he conducts himself in the manner opposite of a Pittsburgh Steeler. [Rumors and Rants]
A look at Final Four MOPs that went on to become NBA greats. Miles Simon did not make the list. [Sportige]
Could Tom Izzo go to the Nets if he cuts down the nets in Indy? [Midwestsportsfans]
It's down to Seinfeld and the Simpsons in the Sitcomology title game. This is like the UNC-Kentucky of sitcom battles. [Sparty and Friends]
Monday, March 29
It's All About The Units
Without a doubt the biggest winners of the college basketball weekend were the Final Four teams, but that is just in the competitive side of the sport. As we have all learned when it comes to college sports the money is the most influential element. That is why more people than just the quartet of teams have cause to celebrate about the way the tournament has unfolded. The NCAA has run an ad campaign this year about the amount of money being put back into their membership programs; in the commercial they claim it is 97% and while some may be dubious upon that amount it is roughly accurate. As people often need reminding the NCAA is an organization that is comprised of the member colleges and those colleges dictate the rules by which the organization operates. In the NCAA tournament, more than school pride is at stake for the teams and their conferences. There is a lot of money to be won.
While we know that college football is king when it comes to the ability to generate revenue through the bowl system, that is not an NCAA sponsored enterprise. Like the NCAA though the bowls enjoy tax exempt status but that is a story for another day. The bowl payouts are distributed to the conferences which almost all spread it evenly among their membership institutions. When it comes to the basketball tournament each team begins with a reward and those that advance earn extra rewards. Read rewards as cash. The more a team wins, the more money it gets for its conference which earns them extra money in turn. While the players and coaches are focused on winning in the hopes of raising the trophy at the end, everyone is essentially playing for money.
This money comes in the forms of units. Each team earns its conference a unit for appearing in the tournament. The worth of a unit changes each year depending on the total revenue but it is divided equally amongst the participants. This year a unit is worth $222,502. That means every team participating in this year's tournament, all 65 started off earning that. Yes those cringes and hung heads on Selection Sunday were not just from coaches and players, but school administrators as well. For each additional win, a school earns its conference another unit.
In this economy(!) even the big conferences view this as more than just a drop in the bucket, especially since they have multiple bids. The units are paid out based how many have been accrued on a rolling six year schedule. So if a conference makes a deep run or has multiple bids, a school can add a nice source of income over the next six years.
The smaller schools typically can expect 1 unit each year, 2 if their team manages to win their first round game. Look at Arkansas Pine-Bluff; many would think they would be upset to get into opening round game since some people consider it the play-in game. However, APB got a unit for appearing in that game AND another won for winning it and facing Duke. For one of the lowest rated teams in the tournament, they earned the SWAC $445,004 this year and those units are added to whatever they accrue for the next six years. For the next 5 years, any units the SWAC generates will be added to this year's total and paid out each year.
That is why the Horizon League had to be doing summersaults on Saturday. While Butler has earned the Horizon League a fair amount of units in the past, this year marked the first time they advance to an Elite 8 and Final Four. The Bulldogs have already earned 5 units out of a possible 6 (there is no extra unit if you win, but there is the thrill of being national champions) and reached the Final Four in their hometown of Indianapolis. Did I mention that they and the Horizon League are the official hosts of the Final Four?
Thanks to Butler, the Horizon league added $1,112,510 to the pot. They could add another unit if they beat Michigan State on Saturday. If the Horizon League evenly distributes their money, that is $111,251 per school. If you were to imagine a Horizon League team bowing out in the first round, say if Butler lost to UTEP like many (/covers face) they would get just $22,250.20 for each school in the league.
Now of course we come to the big leagues. According to this, the Big Ten earned 69 units in the previous pay cycle. That earned each school in the conference $1,395,692. They earned $1,863,000 in football bowl money this year as well. Obviously we can see the big 6 conferences have extra incentive to get as many bids as possible. The Big East's success in the tourney is debatable; West Virginia made the Final Four (3rd year in a row for the conference), only they got past the Sweet 16, the 1 seed Syracuse was upset, Villanova got lucky against Robert Morris and then bowed out in the 2nd round. What is not debatable is the Big East racking up huge money from the tournament the last few years. Granted the Big East is a huge 16 team behemoth. The conference entered the tournament with 8 teams. That is $1,780,016 for the conference without taking a dribble. Even with teams struggling and leaving in the first round, some unceremoniously (Georgetown), they still managed 8 more units which doubles their money. So far in this year's tournament alone the Big East has netted $3,560,032.
So whether the money received is a drop in the bucket for a conference and their respective athletic departments or a big payday for smaller programs, there is a lot more money to be won in the NCAA tournament than eternal glory. Memphis recently felt the sting of playing the 2008 tournament with an ineligible player. For the SAT-Derrick Rose situation, not only was the school forced to vacate the wins that led them to the title game where they lost in overtime to Kansas, but they had to return all their tournament revenue from that year. It totaled approximately $615,000 so it is no wonder the school is suing Calipari to get his $350,000 worht of bonuses back. With the possibility of expansion and changing networks, the revenues may change in the coming years, but it is likely the system will remain the same.
Thursday, March 25
The Grass Is Not Always Greener In College Basketball
Something that accompanies this time of year is the coaching carrousel. We hear all the time now that winning is all that matters, and that coaches are given a short time to produce results. Sometimes programs can get ahead of themselves but not seeing their forest for the trees that dot the landscape. With that in mind we take a look at one program as an example that made a quick move and how it has unfolded so far.
When Herb Sendek rode into town in 1996 the NC State program was in complete disarray. Herb immediately produced the program's first winning season since 1990. They also made the ACC Tournament final, a trend of doing well in that tournament that he would continue throughout his time there. In a 30 mile radius, let alone a state where the Wolfpack will never be on the same plane as Duke or Carolina, Herb had a good run. From 2002 to 2006 he had a winning season each year and took NC State to the tourney each year. Wolfpack nation was not happy though. They wanted more. While Herb was taking the program places it had not been since the H.W. Bush administration, fans saw Duke and North Carolina win national championships and make Final Fours. In 2005, Herb and company beat defending champion UConn to advance to the Sweet 16. The very next Sendek went 22-10, 10-6 in the ACC and made the second round of the tournament. Due to the harsh criticism from both fans and the media, Herb made the preemptive move and took the Arizona State job before he could be fired.
I can understand that schools and fans get impatient. Herb was in his 10th season and people wanted results. It is not unfounded that after years of clawing away in the middle of the conference and falling short early in the tournament the athletic department gave into the fans and decided Herb had had ample time to build a program. Once Herb was gone the speculation ran wild about who would be brought in. This is where NC State began their mistake; they thought a brand name coach was entitled to them. The green grass they saw on the other side was not their lawn, it belonged to their neighbors the blue bloods.
The pure and simple fact is that while NC State has a rich basketball history, it will always play second fiddle to its neighbors in Durham and Chapel Hill. With two prime recruits coming in next year Sidney Lowe seems to have a one-year coaching life to live. Lowe was brought in after a coaching search that was publicized more for its failures than its final result. Sidney was then hailed as a savior of the so-called mediocrity the program has wallowed in under Sendek. He was on the famous 1983 team, he had experience on an NBA sideline, and he had a shiny red blazer. Four years later the Wolfpack have yet to reach the NCAA tournament and managed only two NIT appearances. Meanwhile, Herb Sendek brought Arizona State to his customary second round exit of the tournament last year. He has also made two NITs in the past four years. Herb did not come out of this looking like the shining white knight, but compared to his replacement at NC State, he has been successful.
The coaching game is one wrought with good intentions and horrible betrayals. The contracts themselves are drawn up specifically for provisions of if and when one side decides to leave the other flapping in the breeze. Yet as we see teams get further in the tournament and get the national attention and perhaps more importantly extra money cash coming in for them and their conference, it is a price both sides are willing to pay.
Look at Xavier, a team with some recent history of success. They lured That Matta away from Butler but lost him to Ohio State. They promoted his assistant Sean Miller(who was an assistant under Sendek at NC State) who continued their success in the tourney but lost him to Arizona. They promote assistant Chris Mack and are playing in the Sweet 16 this year. So Xavier has collected two buyouts and have their new promoted assistant continuing their success. Of course once Chris Mack is without Holloway and Crawford, his talent will really be put to the test but in the interim Xavier has done beautifully by not seeking coaching outside their limits. Consider that they have a great history of developing coaches who went on to achieve success at other places such as Skip Prosser and Pete Gillen.
There is rarely an instant fix for a struggling program, the exception being this year with Kentucky. The grass was clearly greener (though there was also plenty of dirt and BS to fertilize that grass) on the other side. John Calipari left Memphis and there soon-to-be forfeited games behind and brought hope, excitement, and Cousins and Wall to Lexington. The turnaround has been instant and might yet produce a 9th title for the Cats, but the cost could be hefty down the road.
So as NC State, recently ousted from the NIT by UAB, heads into another year of basketball uncertainty it stands as a testament to how important coaching choices are [Ed. note: whether a guy is fired or run out of town]. People want the quick fix, but looking before you leap is never a bad way to go about your business. Operating under the illusion that you can just buy out the new guy if he fails after a few years and it do no damage to the program in the long run is foolish. You never know what is waiting on that other side where the grass looks fresh and green, but it never hurts to look under your feet and see what you are leaving behind before you run off recklessly for what seems like greener pastures.
Tuesday, March 23
16 Things
You know why people always complain about other people telling them about their brackets? Because they heard some other person mock people who talk about their brackets. Is it really the worst thing in the world if someone lets you know how the biggest sports pick'em in our country turned out for them? The argument pops up every year because people want to share how their bracket turned out, that is why the whiners still have a voice. It's that I'm too cool for school attitude that makes that midget on the Sports Reporters even more detestable. Yes I clicked on the TV Sunday morning and in addition to my hangover I was greeted with the weasel-faced Liliputian spouting his no doubt recycled rant about people talking about their brackets. He should count himself lucky he still has a place in a medium that has chewed up and spewed out others who plodded along by rehashing old stories and being generally lazy when it came to sports journalism. Okay, rant over. On to a look at each of the Sweet 16 teams remaining and one fact about each of them.
Kentucky: UK seems to be the shoe-drop team still remaining in this tournament, even though Kansas was the top seed that did not survive the first weekend. Kentucky has become the hated mass of this tournament. Before it was simply for winning a lot and being Kentucky, but the Calipari hire has definitely rubbed people the wrong way. It was a Fasutian hire for sure, and it signified the final crossing of the threshold for the winning is the only thing collective of Big Blue. Maybe it is the way it has always been, but in the past college programs were much better at providing a guise of respectful leaders, educational excellence and the betterment of mankind as a means to their basketball/football succeeding. Kentucky threw a good chunk of this out the window when they brought in Calipari. They were tired of losing, and took the path of least resistance and in this day and age they can hardly be blamed. It has brought the hail of criticism, but neither coach Cal, the players, or their fans really care. Winning is the only thing that matters now.
Cornell: People who paid attention to college basketball this year knew that Cornell was a solid team going into the tournament. In no way should they have been a 12 seed. Temple coach Fran Dunphy did all but take a verbal flame-thrower to the committee for pairing his 5th seeded Owls with the Big Red. What is surprising is that Cornell has the most impressive offensive performances overall in the tourney so far. Forget who scored the most points, Cornell laid 78 on Temple (opponents averaged 56.8) and 87 on Wisconsin (opponents averaged 56.9). Two teams known most of all for their tough, half-court defense got ran out of the gym.
Washington: I guess this is the equivalent of an NFL team winning their division at 9-7 and then catching fire in the playoffs. While UW was seeded too low as well, it was not the committee's fault. Washington underachieved all season in a bad Pac Ten. And that is the joke of it, with Washington getting to the sweet 16 and Cal winning their first round game against the chuckers that are Louisville, a big campaign started to try to bolster the conference. The truth behind the Lorenzo Romar soliloquies is that the league had two good teams, and a whole lot of slop behind it.
West Virginia: Bob Huggins is a very good coach, no denying that. He has reached a Final Four and two Elite Eights. However, he has not gotten that far since 1996 with Cincinnati. That year a very talented Bearcat team (Danny Fortson, Corey Blount, Keith LeGree) got Dante Jones'd by Mississippi State. This is Huggins's best chance to reach a Final Four since landing at Morgantown, will he go out like a lion, or a lamb who had a little too much to drink and tried to drive home.
Syracuse: Cannot be anything but impressed with the Orange's blowout of Gonzaga. Not just from a score standpoint but when Rick Jackson was tagged with 3 fouls in the first half, it seemed as though the door was open for Gonzaga. Jim Boeheim knows what it is going take to win the title, a great shooting night from his team, and a less than stellar one from the opponents. It is a good bet to be banking on, considering Rautins and Johnson look very comfortable so far and their length on the zone provides enough of a buffer for them to outscore the other team.
Butler: Butler may present one of the best chances for a team to knockoff Syracuse. They shoot the 3 well, don't turn it over, and play pretty good defense. Against Syracuse though, it is all about the 3. If the Bulldogs want any shot, they have to bomb away from deep. They were 9-14 in their 2nd round game against Murray State. If they shoot at that clip with a higher volume, they have a shot.
Xavier: The Musketeers returned the favor in kind to Pitt on Sunday. It was a little eerie how the game was so similar to last year's with the roles reversed. Xavier just keeps finding a way to make it work. They have been one of the most consistent tournament teams over the last decade and have done it with 3 different coaches.
Kansas St.: Frank Martin is the Frank the Tank for the new decade; big, strong, mean, unfunny, and able to crush small woodland creatures with either his gaze or his hands.
Northern Iowa: Ali Farokhmanesh is now a household name. Many have praised his big brass ones for shooting his open 3 against Kansas(me included), but allow me to go Whitlock for a second. If Ali had a complexion like an American typically thinks an Iranian person would have, would he be getting all this love? The easy answer is no. MSM people would praise his shot, but not throw in all the gritty, and effusive praise. I'm just saying, no I'm telling you that is what would happen.
Michigan State: The last year has played out like a Disney movie for the Spartans thus far. Lose national title in your home dome and see hopes and dreams crushed, come back next year but injuries and internal struggle force a tough year. Hobbled in the tournament they escape in the first game and overcome impossible odds with their star player down and out in the second game to hit a last second shot. So if they carry this on to win an improbably, impossible title it is a Disney movie and if they fall short it becomes a Lifetime movie.
Tennessee: Bruce Pearl is good for college basketball, especially at Tennessee. He gets people talking at a school where football is king and the women's team is queen. He gets good players and his teams have done well. He has painted his body orange and macked on the female population of Knoxville. The one thing he has not done is take the Vols beyond the sweet 16. It will not be easy to get by Ohio State, Pearl can move up one more step in the UT hierarchy by avenging his loss to the Buckeyes in 2007 where they led the entire game.
Ohio State: The path hath opened up for Ohio State. On paper there is no way they should not get to Indianapolis. Will the team with the number 1 pick in this year's draft take Turner over John Wall? If I had the number 1 pick, I would.
Duke: Duke fans are hedging their bets already by talking about next year. Despite losing Scheyer and perhaps Singler, they have coach K's first ever JUCO transfer, Seth Curry, and a top recruit Irving next year. There is reason for optimism, but Devil fans should be excited about now, there have to be one of the favorites left in the field.
Purdue: Right off the bat, in the press conference after they beat Siena, the Boilermakers were throwing the disrespect card on the table. Even the president's bracket was immune from attacks. Whatever it takes to get them motivated but the fact remains they lost their most dynamic player. It was natural for people to doubt them.
St. Mary's: Omar Samhan made himself a nice chunk of change in the tournament so far. While the ears of NBA scouts have pricked, they probably will be most interested to see how he fares against the bigs of Baylor.
Baylor: Scott Drew never played high school basketball, but he knows the game and knows how to recruit. He never hit that amazing shot against Ole Miss like his brother Bryce did, but he has his team playing what is essentially a home game regional with a legitimate chance to reach the Final Four.
Friday, March 19
It's Friday
Note: The video was of the game-winner by Murray St. over Vanderbilt, but CBS decided to make it be pulled down off Youtube. I understand CBS wants to protect their product, but a short vid of one of the tourney's best moments being more accessible to people is not a smart way for them to invest their time.
/obvious internet blog rant
Thursday, March 18
Tournament Time: Final Four Picks
You have to appreciate this year's Final Four logo. It really represents the event being held in Indianapolis; bland, boring, and a little chunky. Somehow I ended up with New Mexico alongside the other 3 number 1 seeds. If it happens I get to leave it up, but again I was saying that about my Gonzaga and Xavier picks from years past.
My final picks are nothing extraordinary, but if it does shake out like this there will be some good games ahead.
National Semifinals
Kansas over Syracuse: In a rematch of the 2003 championship game Kansas proves too tough for the Syracuse zone. This Kansas team is not given credit enough defensively, and their ability to limit the Orange from scoring will provide the difference. The 2-3 zone is not terribly complex, and Boeheim has said he wants to get to the tourney so he won't see anymore Big East teams that know how to beat it. Given a week though, and the driving ability of Collins and others, Kansas wins by almost double digits.
Duke over New Mexico: New Mexico would be treated like the red-headed stepchild if this Final Four comes to fruition. I would expect Duke to win in this match-up. The trio of Scheyer, Singler , and Smith, or the reverse oreo line as I call them (a tribute to the Mighty Ducks) have been brilliant and most importantly, when one falters the others seem to bring up the slack. The last few years it looked like only Singler was playing with the confidence of a top team. This year all the Duke players are. It is that Duke swagger, except it is a lot more hokey than swagger. It is that same thing we began hating Duke for in the early 90s. It is pale swagger, Laettner swagger, I'm better than you swagger. New Mexico comes into Indy in awe and shoots horribly, coach K yells at officials and Duke shoots twice as many foul shots.
National Championship
Kansas over Duke: Not really going out on a limb picking KU to win it all but I have been saying for weeks I was going with them and I am not changing now. CBS would love this scenario, because as we all know conspiracy nuts, Duke is the biggest draw of all time. Of course the pre-game hype will focus on coach K slurpage, the historic nature of the programs and of course, Grant Hill's dunk from their 1991 title game meeting which Duke won 72-65.
Tournament Time: East Region
In just a few short hours the tournament will begin. It will actually be a few long, agonizing hours. Someday people will sit around and wonder what people did for the tournament when there was no March Madness on Demand. I can't imagine my life without it today. Slow day at the office, the best tournament ever (hyperbole intended) kicking off. Certain days in the American workforce are so unproductive that they should become national holidays. The day after the Super Bowl, the first two days of the tournament, St. Swilling's Day, etc. Our country is one of the tops in least time off. No wonder we are all fat and have high blood pressure. Except for me, I'm doing fantastic.
1st Round
1 Kentucky over 16 East Tennessee State Kenny Chesney went to ETSU, he is also really close with Peyton Manning and Tim Tebow. Just sayin'.
9 Wake Forest over 8 Texas: I like the "Kentucky better watch out for Texas in the 2nd round" talk. I am going to squash that right now, Wake wins in the team-with-high-expectations-that-went-into-the-crapper bowl.
5 Temple over 12 Cornell: This is really a balls match-up for Cornell. They made the tourney last year, had a strong season this year including almost taking out Kansas at the Phog. They have a good big man and a good scorer. But Temple has no problems playing an Ivy League type slowdown game. Their coach Fran Dunphy used to coach at Penn so this will not be foreign territory.
4 Wisconsin over 13 Wofford: While I consider every tournament game a must-watch game, this one will be the watching-paint-dry game of the tourney.
11 Washington over 6 Marquette: If this match-up was presented at the beginning of the season it would be Washington hands down. I think this will be a case of team getting hot at the right time after a disapointing season, like Arizona last year.
3 New Mexico over 14 Montana: The Lobos are the high seed that people probably know the least about, aside from Steve Alford being the coach. I enjoyed the segment about Alford wanting to be a Pacer in the Reggie Miller 30 for 30. Donnie Walsh has some brass ones for not taking Alford, and if he had one a title with Reggie, it would have been held in even higher esteem. Some people in New York would say taking Jordan Hill knocked Donnie down a few pegs.
10 Missouri over 7 Clemson: Clemson....DO NOT WANT! While Catfish in the past got swindled by the Tigers in the past he now knows as I do, you never bet on Clemson. In football and basketball, they are the quintessential let down team. Like small airplanes I never trust them.
2 West Virginia over 15 Morgan State: There are a lot of nervous couches in Morgantown right now.
2nd Round
1 Kentucky over 9 Wake Forest: Although people like to knock Calipari for not winning the title at Memphis (among other things), but he rarely lost to teams as inferior as Wake is to the Wildcats.
5 Temple over 4 Wisconsin: This game will not be poetry in motion either.
3 New Mexico over 11 Washington: Iowa fans would be quick to point out that Steve Alford was never able to take the Hawkeyes far in the tournament. So taking New Mexico, who is kind of an unknown to begin with is a dangerous pursuit, but the little I saw of new Mexico this year was enough to know they have athletic playmakers and a solid leader.
10 Missouri over 2 West Virginia: Last year Missouri used their hectic, speed it up offense to bounce Memphis. They are not as good as they were last year, but I think they shoot lights out, and the Mountaineers turn it over too much. This has all the makings of a classic Bobby Huggins let down tourney game.
Sweet 16
1 Kentucky over 5 Temple: I think this game will end up looking a lot the close calls Kentucky has had against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. They will play really bad and the game will be low scoring, but in the end they edge it out on some bullshit shot/foul call by Wall.
3 New Mexico over 10 Missouri: If New Mexico gets past Washington, I think it gives them the confidence an inexperienced tourney high seed needs.
Elite 8
3 New Mexico over 1 Kentucky: I never fill out my bracket looking ahead to see if the final result "makes sense" or is balanced. If I go region by region and all 4 teams I have making it are Big East teams then so be it. I don't like having New Mexico making it to Indy and it probably has no chance of happening, but I just envision in my gut as what will happen. Maybe I am too high on the Mountain West Conference. I banged the drum for TCU during football season but their ginger QB decided to play like ass in the Fiesta Bowl. I assume I will get burned similarly on this one. Darington Hobson is a player who could start on any number of big name teams, and I really like the leadership by Roman Martinez. They are the two leading scorers and rebounders on the team, and I think they lead the Lobos to the promised land.
Wednesday, March 17
Sometimes You Forget: The Coaches of the 1990 NCAA Tournament
It was 20 years ago today Sergeant Pepper taught the band to play, but also the 1990 NCAA tournament was in its 3rd day of competition. Sports greatness when viewed in hindsight is always given more credit than in its current state. There are dozens of coaching greats in this year's tournament. However, looking at the coaching list from the '90 affair, it is most impressive.
First, let's look back at some memorable moments from that tournament.
Rick Fox, before he married Vanessa Williams or co-starred on Oz, hit this game-winner over number 1 seed Oklahoma in the 2nd round of the tourney. Things to note in this video: Hubert Davis rockin' the box and a very happy Pete Chilcutt.
Next we have Dennis Scott, 3-D himself putting eventual Final Four team Georgia Tech ahead of LSU in the 2nd round.
Then, we have the 1st round buzzer beater by Maurice Newby to put Northern Iowa past Mizzou. Could the Panthers experience similar magic this year? Well they were a 14 seed in 1990 and are a 9 seed this year but they will face Kansas if they get past UNLV. Things to note in this video: the cheerleader hair, my lord look at hose bangs.
Of course the most memorable shots from this tournament featured UConn on both sides of the buzzer. The Tate George turn around with 1 second left with the heave by Scott Burrell (Elden Campbell gaurding the inbound pass!). Forward to 2:00 on the vid for the shot.
In the next game, Christian Laettner would squash the Huskies run. The only video I could find of the shot was here, and it is sped up for some reason. UConn did not guard the inbounds passer, who was Laettner.
UNLV ended up winning the whole thing, trouncing Duke by 30 in the title game.
Now to the coaches.
In the East Region: I broke the coaches into legends and memorable names. Team and seed unmber follow in parantheses. Bolded coach and team won the region.
Legendary: Jim Calhoun(UConn - 1), Roy Williams(Kansas - 2), Mike Krzyzewski(Duke - 3), Lou Carnesecca(St. John's - 6), Bob Knight(Indiana - 8), John Chaney(Temple - 11)
Memorable: Cliff Ellis(Clemson - 5), Jim Harrick(UCLA - 7), Mike Jarvis(Boston University- 16)
It's amusing that all 3 coaches in the memorable category left schools under suspicious practices under NCAA investigation. The legendary group is damn legendary but outside of Lou and perhaps Roy seem a awfully crusty bunch.
Midwest Region:
Legendary: Billy Tubbs(Oklahoma - 1), Gene Keady(Purdue -2), John Thompson(Georgetown - 3), Nolan Richardson(Arkansas - 4), Lou Henson(Illinois - 5), Hugh Durham(Georgia - 7), Dean Smith(North Carolina - 8), Pete Caril(Princeton - 13)
Memorable: Pete Gillen(Xavier - 6), Charlie Spoonhour(SW Missouri St - 9), Tom Penders(Texas - 10), Lon Kruger(Kansas State - 11), Jim O'Brien(Dayton - 12)
So pretty much all but 3 coaches are legends in their own right or recognizable names. Just look at that basketball brainpower in the first category.
Southeast Region:
Legendary: Jud Heathcoat(Michigan State - 1), Jim Boeheim(Syracuse - 2), Norm Stewart(Missouri - 3), Bobby Cremins(Georgia Tech - 4), Dale Brown(LSU - 5), Digger Phelps(Notre Dame - 10), Don Haskins(UTEP - 11), Rollie Massimino(Villanova - 12)
Memorable: Clem Haskins(Minnesota - 6), Terry Holland(Virgina - 7), Les Robinson(East Tenn. St - 13)
Come to think of it, more often than not these coaches ran into NCAA problems.
West Region:
Legendary: Jerry Tarkanian(UNLV - 1), Lute Olson(Arizona - 2), Denny Crum(Lousiville - 4)
Memorable: Steve Fisher(Michigan - 3), Randy Ayers(Ohio State - 8), Rick Barnes(Providence - 9), Paul Westhead(Loyola Marymount - 10)
I decided to not put Fisher in the legends category. He doesn't have 400 wins yet and although he reached the Final Four 3 times(once according to the NCAA) I don't think he is there yet.
Wednesday Links Returnith
Hey there, random internet link list. Haven't seen you in awhile. In between joinnig the regular American workforce and still finding quoting Dave Chappelle funny, things have been going on in what the Germans call "das interenet". Let's start things off with pure internet win(audio NSFW)...
via
Reggie Bush a Seahawk? It would give him the opportunity to cost Pete Carrol another title by pitching a dumb lateral. [Rumors and Rants]
Staying on the NFL topic, some underrated moves from Free Agency. [TBL]
It's trivia Wednesday! Honestly it kills me not to be able to play trivia at the grad every hump day. Can you name the cities that have hosted tournament games the most? [Sporcle]
Tiger returns for the Masters. Television execs at ESPN and CBS rejoice. Golf fans dance. White trash sluts pack suitcases and descend on Augusta. And some gambling site is picking him to win. [Sportress of Blogitude]
Say what you want about soccer players, they can get awfully creative when they score a goal. [Sportige]
Tournament Time: West Region
It may be possible that some old media crumudgen will dust off an article about the lamentation of NCAA Final Four no longer being played in basketball arenas. The games have been moved to huge, vast domes. Oh for the days of basketball the way it was supposed to be! As Deepthroat once said, "follow the money". That is all that has to be done, sports are big business, welcome to reality, it is too foolish to not hold the culmination of the tournament in a huge stadium that can hold upwards of 50,000 instead of an intimate arena that holds less than half of that.
In the 80s, a few Final Fours were held in domes but most were still in basketball style arenas. I remember when the Final Four came to my hometown of Charlotte and the city was buzzing. The year was 1994 and Big Nasty and Scotty Thurman led Arkansas over Duke while president Clinton looked on. Those days are a memory now, as is Charlotte Coliseum. The last Final Four not played in one of behemoths was in 1996 in the Meadowlands. While those days are gone forever, the West regional final will be played in a modest 22,000 seat arena in Salt Lake City. Energy Solutions Arena offers a sensible name and a pro-style basketball venue. It is home to the Utah Jazz. The Regional semifinal and final rounds in the West will have a different feel than the others by the way it looks on TV. No better, no worse, just different. The West quadrant picks after the break.
1st Round
1 Syracuse over 16 Vermont: Here is where one can raise a cocked eyebrow at the committee. They pair Vermont with Syracuse, two teams that met in 2005 when the Catamounts pulled off the big upset over 3 seeded Syracuse. This time there is no Brennan and Coppenwrath (and no Gus Johnson) and this Orange team is much better than that one. This game is being played in Buffalo so plenty of fans from both side should be there. Once the committee placed this game on the final board there had to be at least one that said, "cha-ching!".
9 Florida State over 8 Gonzaga: I'll admit that I was in the bag for Gonzaga for a number of years. I had them in the Final Four multiple times earlier in the 2000s, and even last year I thought they could give Carolina a run for their money. This year, I'm not taking the bait. The Zags over Cuse upset in the second round has been dangled out there for people to take, but this time I won't get fooled again.
12 UTEP over 5 Butler: These next two games are agonizing to choose. I truly think the 5-12 and 4-13 games in the West are a complete tossup. The analysts are shoving Derek Caracter down our throats in this match-up, but the Miners' big man is a big key to their success and Butler does not have a match-up for them. It really comes down to how Butler shoots the 3 and I am leaning toward an off-day considering the midwestern team has to travel to the left coast. Miners in a squeaker.
4 Vanderbilt over 13 Murray State: Like the above game I think this will be close and a lot of people are high on the Racers. While their 30-4 record is impressive, their schedule strength is 263. They lost by 5 at Cal early on but other than that it was mostly blah and their conference schedule. Vandy sometimes gets more credit than it deserves for being consistenly competititve and often times less credit than it deserves because people point to their home court as an advantage. The Commodores were not horrible away from Memorial Colisuem entirely. I think they lean on Beal and Ogilvy to edge out a win.
6 Xavier over 11 Minnesota: This is the 9th straight year Xavier is in the tournament. Impressive run and even more so this year after losing Derek Brown and coach Sean Miller (more on that in a later post). They have only been bounced in the first round once during their current run. First year coach Chris Mack is in an similar position to his predecessor after Thad Matta left for Ohio State. I think the Musketeers triumph over a Minnesota team that got hot for a few games in the Big Ten tournament to get them a bid in the first place.
3 Pittsburgh over 14 Oakland: I just realized my whole first round of this region is all chalk (9 over 8 is not an upset). So much for my speech but surprises are coming, honest! Pitt is one of those teams waiting to break through and every year you think this is the year. Last year I thought it was that year. They nearly made it until Scottie Reynolds took it the length. I really like Pitt as a sleeper this year. No expectations, but the same hard-nosed defense Jamie Dixon always brings.
7 BYU over 10 Florida: The polls don't carry weight like they do in college football(thank goodness) but BYU is ranked 7th in Kenpom and 16th and 17th in the two major polls. They land at a 7 seed, making their quest to get their first tournament win since the Clinton administration. Is it not freaky/cool that you can say "since the Clinton administration" and make something sound dated? It was first term Clinton too for the Cougars, 1993. Florida is quite fortunate to make it in. If they had missed out nobody outside of Gainesville would be arguing their case. Now that they are in they are dangerous for a round or two but I think BYU gets good support in OKC and snaps their streak.
2 Kansas State over 15 North Texas: The Mean Green will more than likely be drubbed by the purple cats. Kansas State is a complete wildcard in this thing. Frank Martin deserves credit for finding a style that plays well with their formidable backcourt, but once the lights get bright on this team, can they succeed outside the Octagon of Doom?
2nd Round
1 Syracuse over 9 Florida State: Onuaku not playing in this game would be a bigger factor if Alabi had a better inside game, the Cuse did not play a long (and athletic!) 2-3 zone, and Rick Jackson was there. Jackson actually had better overall numbers this year. The depth/foul trouble issue is the biggest concern for the Orange, but again the 2-3 zone is supposed to help in that.
12 UTEP over 4 Vanderbilt: An Ogilvy/Character match-up would be great to see and no doubt would be ruined by cheap foul calls resulting in one or both players seeing limited playing time. It is always deflating to see a Sweet 16 pick go out in the first round, especially if they are blown out. I sense a good probability of that happening to UTEP.
6 Xavier over 3 Pittsburgh: Pitt's success in this year's tourney is predicated on the fact that most teams will be taken back by their aggressive and physical defense. Xavier, however will be ready. The A-10 was not the personification of run and gun basketball. Teams like Richmond, Rhode Island, Dayton and most of all St. Louis(coached by Rick Majerus) played similar grinding styles. Xavier and Pitt played a bloodbath last year in the Sweet 16 with Pitt escaping, this year Xavier will take them down.
7 BYU over 10 Kansas State: Like I mentioned before I do not trust K-State and they very well may prove me wrong. Despite the illness to BYU leading scorer Jimmer Fredette, I like what Michael Lloyd Jr. can do to disrupt Clemente. Solid defense and good shooting would lift them over erratic Kansas State.
Sweet 16
1 Syracuse over 12 UTEP: It is fun and sometimes fashionable to place low seeds making it to the Sweet 16. In the past few years when the chalk has been flying it makes it difficult to think a 12 would beat a 1. I think the Orange go marching on.
7 BYU over 6 Xavier: So just to recount so far, I have Robert Morris beating Nova and BYU, who has not won a tourney game the early 90s, in the Elite 8. Keep in mind BYU would be playing this game (if they get this far) in Salt Lake City. Any available ticket will be snatched up by any and all members of the Mormon Tabernacle Choir and 15,000 of their closest friends. The arena will be in a the kind of frenzy only a bunch of white, sober sports enthusiasts can produce.
Elite 8
1 Syracuse over 7 BYU: I'm projecting the Cougars to play in this tournament like they are on a mission (see what I did there? Do you?!) but ultimately I think their hot shooting comes to an end, even against the 2-3 zone.
Three 1 seeds so far in my Final Four. Seems chalkish but tomorrow when I reveal the East and my Final Four picks it will not be all number 1s.
Tuesday, March 16
Tournament Time: South Region
Conspiracy theorists unite! There has been a strong movement to contend that the draw Duke has gotten in the South was motivated by ratings, money, and slightly by race. Duke has the easiest draw I agree, but that does not make it easy. They are still going to have to beat tough teams to make it to Indy. I think having Purdue and Villanova in the same bracket is a joke considering they are probably the weakest at those seeds, but it is kind of insulting to all the other high seed teams in the region to say it is a cakewalk.
1st Round
1 Duke over 16 Winthrop: I am picking the Eagles to win the opening round game over Arkansas Pine-Bluff. Don't expect too many fireworks tonight because Winthrop plays a slowed down pace and will try to make this game in the 50s. Duke will no doubt triumph in this game in Jacksonville, but the question is how long will Coach K leave his starters in the game. I'm guessing until about the under 4:00 timeout, when Duke is up by 35. After the game K will then be magnanimous and talk about how great the effort was from Randy Peele's team and that this tournament is all about kids and love, peace, and sunshine flowers.
9 Louisville over 8 California: Really wanted to take the Bears here, but East Coast game, Pitino turning up the pressure and I think the Cardinals get it done. Seems like a long time ago the Pitino fiasco came out in the news. I am sure people still bring it up casually and a few heckler have taken their shots, but is Rick's life significantly worse/altered than it was before? Maybe his home life, but there he stands on the sideline, getting the adoration from the Cardinal faithful because he wins and in the end as much as we don't want to admit, that is what it is all about.
12 Utah State over 5 Texas A&M: Every year we get to hear about how ZOMG a 12 usually beats a 5, how does this happen so often!? It usually happens because the 5 seed was overrated and the 12 seed was better or played better than expected. Utah State is one of those little known teams that has been successful this year. The trouble is they have not played too many people of note for comparison. They have well distributed scoring and they shoot 42% from the 3-point line. Three of their players have hit over 50 this year. Obviously I am betting on the Aggies to have a good outside shooting day. [Insert I bet the Aggies win joke here]
13 Siena over 4 Purdue: Going with the trendy pick here. This is not the Saints first rodeo (they had a double order of onions last year in beating Ohio State) and Purdue seems resigned to its fate without Robbie Hummel. It's a tough break for the Boilermakers. A program that has come short again and again in the tournament since its last trip in 1980 does not even get a valid shot at making it this year. There is nothing fair about injuries though, any sports fan will tell you that.
6 Notre Dame over 11 Old Dominion: The success of Notre Dame at the end of the regular season was built on necessity and urgency, two characteristics that usually cause teams to fold under the pressure. The Irish were the exception as they changed their pace of play and role players stepped up while Luke Harangody recovered from an injury. Notre Dame went from a bubble team to a 6 seed in the "weakest" region. Their act may contain from smoke and mirrors, but it will be enough to get past Old Dominion. I expect this game to be hotly contested.
3 Baylor over 14 Sam Houston State: I think Sam Houston makes a game out of it, but the Bears overcome in the end. People are high no Baylor to come out of this region but I don't know if the Bears are battle tested.
7 Richmond over 10 St. Mary's: Another popular conspiracy running amuck in the media is that the tournament committee puts mid-majors against each other to avoid the big 6 conferences from getting embarrassed and allowing them the opportunity to get more units and hence more money. Again I do not think the committee consciously does this, but there are a good deal of match-ups like that this year. Once reason being these mid-majors are seeded in the appropriate slots.
15 Robert Morris over 2 Villanova: Yes, it's that time. Time to take a flyer. While I would not stake my life on this upset or my vast wealth(read: nonexistent wealth) I stand by my statement that this first weekend will not go close to chalk. The Wildcats draw my death card because they have been struggling mightily of late. Nova does not have the same punch it did last year, and I think they go out early. Maybe not this early, but they remind me of South Carolina in 1997 so why can't Robert Morris be Coppin State. Well, Robert Morris lost by 40 at Syracuse and 24 at Pitt. Shit, too late to change now, go Colonials!
2nd Round
1 Duke over 9 Louisville: Do you like foul fests, 3s being jacked up, and unending trips to the free-throw line? If so this game will be for you. Pitino and company will try to pressure and wear down Duke, but Nolan Smith will help neutralize it and the whistles will be ablowin'. I expect no less than 40-50 FT attempts in this game. Both teams shoot over 70%. Duke wins in a slopfest.
13 Siena over 12 Utah State: If this happens, Fran McCaffrey will be offered a coaching job or two after Siena's run is over. The Saints are not as talented as they were last year but they are tough and experienced. You get the impression that nothing phases them.
6 Notre Dame over 3 Baylor: This would be one of those fantastic 2nd round match-ups. I think Notre Dame has the experience and the defense to slow Baylor down.
7 Richmond over 15 Robert Morris: Even if it is Nova in this spot do not sleep on the Spiders. Gonzalvez and Anderson can go toe-to-toe with any backcourt in the country.
Sweet 16
1 Duke over 13 Siena: The dream ends for Siena while Duke continues to fuel the conspiracy-happy population. Duke has their holes, but in a year where everyone admits the field is lacking, this is the time where a team like Duke can rise up. Zoubek (can't believe I'm saying this) does give them an inside presence. As long as he can stay on the court and set his wide-legged, claw-hugging screens he is helping the offense. Scheyer of course needs to stay hot, but if he is cold they need to feed Singler if he can post up his defender. They go away from this way too much and often Singler is relegated to driving or shooting from the outside. He is good at both of those, but if he has the post advantage those are easy buckets.
7 Richmond over 6 Notre Dame: When you make out brackets for money or prizes you always worry about what I call the backtrack scenarios. Your gut tells you something, like you really like Richmond and how their side of the bracket shakes out. But then you realize that all the people picking Notre Dame or Nova to advance will get the points and be ahead of you in the bracket standings. Therefore you either created multiple brackets, which just cover up the same thing you did in other regions making a mish-mash of choices. If you play a small number of brackets which I used to do, it usually eliminates your chances of winning. Since I am not involved in any such contest this year, the freedom is exhilarating. However I am sure the Spiders will let me down, it is fun to just roll it out there with my gut.
Elite 8
1 Duke over 7 Richmond: So in the end I am envisioning the whiners to have it open to them to bitch about how Duke's draw fell out. "Duke against Richmond! I never watch college basketball but I am outraged!"
Monday, March 15
Tournament Time: Midwest Region
The weather has gone from figid and icy to cool and moist here in the northeast. It is a small change from the cool and windy to mild and saucy weather of my former home in North Carolina. Speaking of North Carolina, no Tar Heel this year. You may ask what is Catfish to do? Don't worry has his rooting interest; seeing Duke go down. No Arizona either, or UConn, or UCLA. The last few years have provided a lot of chalk when it comes to the brackets so naturally most predictors are calling for things mostly to hold to form. I prefer to think that the element of chaos will devastate many brackets this year. Many believe a few teams have seperated themselves at the top, but I saw nothing over the past weekend to convince me that the regions will hold true to seeding.
You can see my picks from last year (where I did not do so well) here, here, here, here and here. The first region of picks after the break.
1st Round
1 Kansas over 16 Lehigh: I always wonder what the actual, behind closed doors mentality of these 16 seeds are. We know they are riding high from their conference tournament win but they are facing one of the top four teams in the country. Yet Lehigh is not just facing a top team, they are facing the highest ranked team in the tournament. How high is the Hoosier underdog reinforcement pumped? Do they just prepare like any other game? Do they revel in just "being there" when they get flown to OKC and interviewed by the media? I know Western Carolina and East Tennessee St. have had those anything is possible moments but Lehigh has as close to no chance of winning as you can get. In the media they will be throwing out cliches but I wonder what is really going through the minds of the players and coming out the mouth of coach Brett Reid.
9 Northern Iowa over 8 UNLV: Is it not amazing that the Runnin' Rebs are not held in the same esteem as other 90s powerhouse programs? You may point out the sancitons and the Tark but it's not like Kentucky and Syracuse never had sanctions. Despite a strong performance in the MWC tourney, I think the Lon Kruger (no one talks about him except when he brings UNLV to the tournament again) led Rebels get bounced early. Northern Iowa was in last year and while UNLV plays tough defense, so do the Panthers. Northern Iowa has beated people soundly and have only faltered 4 times this year.
5 Michigan State over 12 New Mexico State: It's funny to me that everyone points out how you cannot count out Tom Izzo come tourney time, yet people want to dismiss the Spartans. Others are saying they would like to completely dismiss MSU but the Izzo factor is the only thing that helps them. The Spartans are just one of the riddles to be solved this week, but I don't think they fall to the Aggies here. Too much pride.
4 Maryland over 13 Houston: Look how many points they score! They have the nation's leading scorer! Plain and simple fact is Houston does not play defense and Maryland has superior players headlined by Vasquez. The one thing that made me twitch about this pick was the fact that Memphis rolled Maryland last year in a somewhat similar match-up of styles. But like I said Houston can only win if they put the game genie on and hit over 60% of their shots and Maryland lays an ostrich egg.
6 Tennessee over 11 San Diego State: A lot of people are picking San Diego State here. But before I endorse a Steve Fisher-led run for the Aztecs, I have to say Tennessee has been playing better without Tyler Smith. They are no juggernauts and it has been my rule not to trust Bruce Pearl and Tennessee in the tournament, but I think they escape with this one.
3 Georgetown over 14 Ohio: Georgetown went from early contender to midseason pretender to late season contender. I really liked the fire Greg Monroe was playing with in the Big East tourney, they were just too worn down to keep up with W. Virginia. Four straight games at MSG with Big East competition gives you little shot to take it home, but the Hoyas should be happy with how they came away with it. The Bobcats shocked Akron to take home the MAC title, but will Gary Trent, the Shaq of the MAC be in attendance?
10 Georgia Tech over 7 Oklahoma State: The Jackets remind me very much of the Michael Beasley led Kansas State team from a few years ago. Derrick Favors is a beast down low, but Georgia Tech does not feed him the ball enough and often turn the ball over before they ever get a chance to. The Cowboys were terrible away from Stillwater this year outside the game where K-State had a let down.
2 Ohio State over 15 UC Santa Barbara: I'm sure alum Jim Rome would tout the Gouchos as phe-nomiNAL but Ohio State will end this one early.
2nd Round
1 Kansas over 9 Northern Iowa: The dream run ends early for the Panthers. I am guessing Kurt Warner will make an appearance at some point though.
5 Michigan State over 4 Maryland: This is where I think Izzo rises up and gets the very best out of his team. Despite Roe being hobbled I think Izzo inspires Lucas to outduel Vasquez. Maryland has shown a very streaky characteristc throughout the year which is understandable with General Greivis running the show. The hard part about predicting how a hot and cold team will do is that you cannot predict in what games, against what team, and in what part of the game they hit a streak.
3 Georgetown over 6 Tennessee: I think this would be a hotly contested game, especially with the Chism-Monroe match-up. Ultimately I think Georgetown scores at will and rolls into the Sweet 16.
2 Ohio State over 10 Georgia Tech: Another place where some people are looking for an upset. I don't see it. Tech has enough talent to be sure, but their inconsistent and sloppy play is the reason they are a 10 seed in the first place. Turner will run circles around them and Lighty is the difference because he is a point guard who can handle.
Sweet 16
1 Kansas over 5 Michigan State: In a rematch of a solid Sweet 16 meeting last year, Kansas runs through Michigan State. The Spartans are a shell of what they were last year while Kansas is a version of themselves last year on steroids.
3 Georgetown over 2 Ohio State: The small rotation Ohio State is running could end up hurting them in a game like this. There is always a danger if you run with a 6-7 man rotation even if it has brought you success. The obvious problem is foul trouble and if a couple of your guys are struggling big time, you cannot find multiple players to replace them. In-game fatigue is not a huge factor because of the lengthing of time outs during the tourney, but the wear over time of a 40+ game season (the Big Ten tourney could have used up some legs) could have some of the players break down. I like the Hoyas.
Elite 8
1 Kansas over 3 Georgetown: To take the drama out now, I don't feel confident putting any team down to beat Kansas. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but they are the most complete team in the tourney. As long as Bill Self keeps them focused on the brass ring, the Hoyas would not be able to keep up with them down the stretch.
*these picks are made for entertainment purposes only, seriously I am not a part of any pools whatsoever.
Tuesday, February 23
Gearing Up For The NCAA Tournament
Selection Sunday is a mere 19 days away and while we do not yet know the match-ups, it is never too early to start speculating on what the madness will bring. Today we look toward the top. For a variety of factors the teams at the top of the rankings are not inspiring anyone with great confidence right now. While these teams are talented and have impressive records, it is hard to say there are any clearly dominant teams. Last year there were the heavyweights of North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Connecticut as the 1 seeds. Not to mention Memphis, Oklahoma and Michigan State as 2 seeds. This year there are a few teams at the top and everyone else in a indecipherable mix of slightly better than average squads. Looking at the heavy favorites going into the tourney this year I think that most, if not all of them are missing that ability to put away opponents and finish strong.
I use the term killshot for lack of a better one. We have seen it with great teams in the past, to beat a team down and keep them down. It also means making a late charge when the team is in a close battle. Can any of these top teams have that "step on the throat" mentality come tourney time? I think there are only two of these teams capable of this and only one that has the ability to display it throughout the tournament.
When we discuss some of the recent great teams that used this ability during the tournament we can look no further than last year. North Carolina was the most complete team the whole season. Their talent and experience were unmatched. Many were even hinting at an undefeated season early on. While that dream floated away and Ty Lawson became gimpy, the Heels were still the unquestioned favorite in the tournament. Their average margin of victory was just over 20 ppg in the tournament. While the 43 point win in the first round helps that average, Carolina whipped a very game Gonzaga in the sweet 16 and was never in danger in Detroit during the Final Four. Their only test was in the 2nd round against LSU. The Tigers had the lead in the 2nd half, but then Carolina turned on the afterburners and won by 14.
The factors that lead to this ability goes beyond simply having talent. That of course is important but talent alone does not get you through the 6 game gauntlet. You have to have a coach who knows how to manipulate the line-up and put the foot to the floor. Game theory is important but coaching in the tournament is a different animal than a conference game in January. Secondly, teams are going to make mistakes but how well does a team limit them? That usually starts at the point and it is no secret solid guard play is a must-have for tourney teams. It also means making your free-throws and not turning it over. Shooting the ball well goes without saying but every team is going to struggle at some point in the tournament if not for an entire game at least part of one. It is how the team responds in that situation that will prove if they have the killer instinct. With these factors in mind let's look at the teams that will right now are projected favorites going in.
West Virginia (21-6, 10-5)
Right now they sit at 4th in the Big East due to their loss last night to UConn. The Mountaineers have plenty of experience and talent in Butler and Ebanks, but as we say last night if they go cold is there enough behind them? Their early season schedule was a joke but they have come on in conference play and beat Ohio State a month ago. They did get thumped at Purdue though.
The concerning factors about WVA is there lack of free-throw shooting (68.7%) and that their opponents shoot roughly the same percentage that they do. They do limit their turnovers to just under 12 per game, and Butler can carry them a very long way. Huggy Bear is one of the best at the game getting talent and maximizing it but has yet to get a team over the hump to the Final Four. It is not absurd for anyone to pencil in the Mountaineers for Indianapolis, they are not a killshot team.
Villanova (22-4, 11-3)
The Wildcat bandwagon is riding a little higher off the ground at the moment. After losing two straight many are being quick to dismiss Nova but that would be foolish. The Wildcats returned a lot from their Final Four squad a year ago headlined by Scottie Reynolds. Jay Wright has established himself as one of the premier coaches in a stacked Big East. They have been blowing out the bads (Penn, Fordham, Delware, Depaul) but even their good wins have been battles. Of course, if they can walk into the packed Carrier Dome this weekend and beat Syracuse in front of a record crowd it will change opinions quickly.
The biggest problem I see with Villanova is that they are a guard-dominated team that have been struggling from the outside. Pena is 6'8 and their biggest low post player. While they shoot 46.6% from the field they only shoot 37.6% from 3 which is 47th in the NCAA. They will come into the tournament having the record and resume of a juggernaut but can they overcome their long-range woes repeatedly or will it keep their tourney opponents in the game?
Duke (23-4, 11-2)
Want to discuss this year's Blue Devils with Catfish? DON'T. This season has not been enjoyable for Tar Heel fans but on the bright side while Duke is atop the ACC, they will be far from a dominating presence in the tournament. It does not mean coach K is fielding a weak team though. I think this year's version of Duke is much improved, if not more pale. Scheyer, Singer, and Smith have been carrying the load this year. The minutes they take each game is mostly viewed as a negative that could have them worn down by the first weekend of the tournament. When you look at their schedule, though, Duke has a shown an ability to run away from opponents. However, this has usually happened in the confines of Cameron.
It should not come as a shocker that Duke so far has shot 122 more free throws than their opponents. They also shot theirs fairly well at 76%. Duke also forces over 15 turnovers a game and shoots 39.2% from deep. They have all the makings of a team that can finish any opponent off. The problem? It is really the same problem Duke has faced in its years following their 2001 title. They grind minutes out of their big stars as mentioned above. Even when games are decided the big 3 stay out there. Singler has already tweaked his wrist this year and is there any guarantee Zoubek can stay on the floor for a long time? Also Duke rarely has an answer if they go cold from the outside. The biggest block in recent years and this year are athletic ball handlers. Duke's agressive defensive style often is trumped by ball quickness and athleticism. Georgia Tech and Georgetown handed Duke defeats away from home using this tactic. With no tournament games in MSG or New Jersey, Duke is going to have to prove itself on a neutral floor. Many are saying it is all about their draw, not exactly the benchmark of a dominating team.
Kansas State (22-4, 9-3)
It goes without saying that K-State is not going to be viewed as a dominant team. Detractors seem to point to their pre-conference schedule which only featured Xavier and Dayton as possible tourney teams. Yet their SOS is ranked 8th. They dropped games in-conference to Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Kansas in an OT crushing loss in the Octagon of Doom. Frank Martin has shaken off the stigma of fill-in coach from when Huggins left and put together a strong squad. There is no doubt the man can recruit, but now his team's success is becoming more of the story than him...or his suits. Not surprisingly Martin wants his boys to play up-tempo and it is very hard to blow through good teams playing that way unless they are very disciplined and experienced. They sit at 8th in scoring average, but they also commit 15.2 turnovers per game and shoot a paltry 65.8% from the FT line. Guards Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente combine for almost 35 ppg.
K-State sits in 2 seed territory right now and has supplanted Texas as the 2nd best team in the Big 12 but this team is not battle tested in March and it is going to be a hit or miss affair for them that will not bring back memories of the great Arkansas teams of '94,'95.
Purdue (23-3,11-3)
Is this the year Purdue stops being Purdon't?(/shows self out, /realizes no one else is here to write post and lets self back in) Seriously though, how many times has Purdue come close to the Final Four in the modern era only to fall short. Their last Final Four was in 1980 and since then it has been a lot of seasons cut short. Matt Painter has taken the torch and carried it well for Gene Keady. Ward "Piggy" Lambert would be proud. Purdue boasts a 3-headed monster of Moore, Hummel, and Johnson. They have the experience but after these three the production slopes off.
The Boilermakers won their first 14 games which included a 14 point win over West Virginia. They then lost 3 in a row to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Northwestern. Since then they have bounced back and won their last 9. They have done it with defense, holding all opponents but one under 66 points in the last month. Purdue is holding opposing shooters to 40% from the field and forcing nearly 16 turnovers per contest. Concern comes in for their 3-point shooting which is only 32.4%. Another worrisome stat is the fact that they have been outrebounded for the season. Hummel has shown he is a streaky shooter from deep, and I don't think Purdue runs away from anyone in the brackets. Plus, the pressure to break a reputation for failing to get to the Final Four almost always results in a team struggling with, not killshotting their opponents.
Syracuse (25-2,12-2)
People thought Syracuse was good last year and they were, but this year's team has thrived with the addition of Wesley Johnson following the subtraction of Flynn, Harris and Devendorf. Andy Rautins is the real catalyst behind the team. His shooting has always been there but his defense and passing ability this year has filled the void left by Flynn. Rautins is not the athletic driver Flynn was but makes up for it with this shooting. The Cuse have an inside presence as well as the outside threat with Onuaku and Jackson. Yet Johnson leads the team in rebounds which is always a challenge in the 2-3 zone.
What is holding Syracuse back from that killshot characteristic is their inability to consistently finish off opponents. Jim Boeheim said recently his team was not playing extraordinarily well and many scoffed since they only had one loss going into last weekend, but they were not putting the other team away. A lot of their games look closer than indicated. UConn and Georgetown both mounted big comebacks on them and to their credit the Orange won, but doing that in the tournament can lead to getting upset. They turn it over 15.6 times a game and shoot 67.1% from the stripe. However, they are 38.2 percent from deep and Johnson has a sweet stroke from beyond the arc. Johnson has one of those shots that always looks like it has a chance to go in. Syracuse will be favored in each of its regional games, but if they let teams hang around, foul trouble and their poor free-throw shooting could come end it for them. They normally start playing their best at the end of the season so the game upcoming versus Nova and the Big East tourney should be good indicators of them taking the next step.
Kentucky (26-1, 11-1)
Kentucky has all the makings of a team that could run through the brackets like a hot knife through butter. They are not as talented as the '96 squad(but who is) but they have the ability to put the most athletic and talented line-up on the floor. John Wall is tremendous, if unpolished and Demarcus Cousins is an absolute beast on the boards. Lost in this shuffle is Patrick Patterson, who could have been drafted last year.
As expected with new freshman talent and a new head coach, Kentucky's play has been a bit erratic at times. Wall and Cousins have shown the propensity to get rattled during games. Calipari claims he allows the give and take with him, but Cousins has been giving to other players and officials. Teams are going to try to exploit this in the tourney. The freshman are also going to have to adjust to playing much more games and Calipari's old friend, free-throw shooting(sensing a trend? a lot of these teams are not even close to 70%) has returned again. His Memphis team and star freshman Derrick Rose missed critical free-throws a few years ago in the tournament which costs them a title. John Wall has been struggling from the line late in games this year. The Wildcats have had to hold on lately in the SEC but they have time to get their team back and clicking. There are just too many variables for me to take UK as a team that will crush opponents once they get past the second round.
Kansas (27-1, 13-0)
Kansas is the most complete team in the country to me. They have great guard play with Sheron Collins. They have athletic scorers in Henry and Morris. They have a dominant big man in Aldrich(averaging a double-double). They have solid role-players in Taylor, the other Morris, and Morningstar. They shoot just under 70% from the line and 40% from 3. They are shooting 48.8%(!) from the field while their opponents shoot 36.9%. Their average scoring margin is 19 points. Bill Self is no longer an "almost" coach. When his Jayhawk team almost choked away a regional final against Davidson two years ago, you could see Self was coaching tight. Once the final buzzer sounded Self collapsed to the floor, all the weight taken off. Since then he has been coaching like he is playing with house money and he is. This led him to winning coach of the year last year and a Sweet 16 appearance that went down to the wire with Michigan State. Self is going into this tournament with the experience under his belt and without the pressure of getting over the hump.
Kansas has blown the doors off most of their opponents and also won the few tight games they have had. Their one slip-up was at Tennessee and if not for that everyone would be asking if the Jayhawks could make a run at going undefeated. They may be happier not having that pressure on them. Right now I would have to say that Kansas is the team to beat because they have shown throughout the year that they have ability get up on quality opponents and keep them down. The Jayhawks may be the only team this year that has that killshot ability.
