Selection Sunday is a mere 19 days away and while we do not yet know the match-ups, it is never too early to start speculating on what the madness will bring. Today we look toward the top. For a variety of factors the teams at the top of the rankings are not inspiring anyone with great confidence right now. While these teams are talented and have impressive records, it is hard to say there are any clearly dominant teams. Last year there were the heavyweights of North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Connecticut as the 1 seeds. Not to mention Memphis, Oklahoma and Michigan State as 2 seeds. This year there are a few teams at the top and everyone else in a indecipherable mix of slightly better than average squads. Looking at the heavy favorites going into the tourney this year I think that most, if not all of them are missing that ability to put away opponents and finish strong.
I use the term killshot for lack of a better one. We have seen it with great teams in the past, to beat a team down and keep them down. It also means making a late charge when the team is in a close battle. Can any of these top teams have that "step on the throat" mentality come tourney time? I think there are only two of these teams capable of this and only one that has the ability to display it throughout the tournament.
When we discuss some of the recent great teams that used this ability during the tournament we can look no further than last year. North Carolina was the most complete team the whole season. Their talent and experience were unmatched. Many were even hinting at an undefeated season early on. While that dream floated away and Ty Lawson became gimpy, the Heels were still the unquestioned favorite in the tournament. Their average margin of victory was just over 20 ppg in the tournament. While the 43 point win in the first round helps that average, Carolina whipped a very game Gonzaga in the sweet 16 and was never in danger in Detroit during the Final Four. Their only test was in the 2nd round against LSU. The Tigers had the lead in the 2nd half, but then Carolina turned on the afterburners and won by 14.
The factors that lead to this ability goes beyond simply having talent. That of course is important but talent alone does not get you through the 6 game gauntlet. You have to have a coach who knows how to manipulate the line-up and put the foot to the floor. Game theory is important but coaching in the tournament is a different animal than a conference game in January. Secondly, teams are going to make mistakes but how well does a team limit them? That usually starts at the point and it is no secret solid guard play is a must-have for tourney teams. It also means making your free-throws and not turning it over. Shooting the ball well goes without saying but every team is going to struggle at some point in the tournament if not for an entire game at least part of one. It is how the team responds in that situation that will prove if they have the killer instinct. With these factors in mind let's look at the teams that will right now are projected favorites going in.
West Virginia (21-6, 10-5)
Right now they sit at 4th in the Big East due to their loss last night to UConn. The Mountaineers have plenty of experience and talent in Butler and Ebanks, but as we say last night if they go cold is there enough behind them? Their early season schedule was a joke but they have come on in conference play and beat Ohio State a month ago. They did get thumped at Purdue though.
The concerning factors about WVA is there lack of free-throw shooting (68.7%) and that their opponents shoot roughly the same percentage that they do. They do limit their turnovers to just under 12 per game, and Butler can carry them a very long way. Huggy Bear is one of the best at the game getting talent and maximizing it but has yet to get a team over the hump to the Final Four. It is not absurd for anyone to pencil in the Mountaineers for Indianapolis, they are not a killshot team.
Villanova (22-4, 11-3)
The Wildcat bandwagon is riding a little higher off the ground at the moment. After losing two straight many are being quick to dismiss Nova but that would be foolish. The Wildcats returned a lot from their Final Four squad a year ago headlined by Scottie Reynolds. Jay Wright has established himself as one of the premier coaches in a stacked Big East. They have been blowing out the bads (Penn, Fordham, Delware, Depaul) but even their good wins have been battles. Of course, if they can walk into the packed Carrier Dome this weekend and beat Syracuse in front of a record crowd it will change opinions quickly.
The biggest problem I see with Villanova is that they are a guard-dominated team that have been struggling from the outside. Pena is 6'8 and their biggest low post player. While they shoot 46.6% from the field they only shoot 37.6% from 3 which is 47th in the NCAA. They will come into the tournament having the record and resume of a juggernaut but can they overcome their long-range woes repeatedly or will it keep their tourney opponents in the game?
Duke (23-4, 11-2)
Want to discuss this year's Blue Devils with Catfish? DON'T. This season has not been enjoyable for Tar Heel fans but on the bright side while Duke is atop the ACC, they will be far from a dominating presence in the tournament. It does not mean coach K is fielding a weak team though. I think this year's version of Duke is much improved, if not more pale. Scheyer, Singer, and Smith have been carrying the load this year. The minutes they take each game is mostly viewed as a negative that could have them worn down by the first weekend of the tournament. When you look at their schedule, though, Duke has a shown an ability to run away from opponents. However, this has usually happened in the confines of Cameron.
It should not come as a shocker that Duke so far has shot 122 more free throws than their opponents. They also shot theirs fairly well at 76%. Duke also forces over 15 turnovers a game and shoots 39.2% from deep. They have all the makings of a team that can finish any opponent off. The problem? It is really the same problem Duke has faced in its years following their 2001 title. They grind minutes out of their big stars as mentioned above. Even when games are decided the big 3 stay out there. Singler has already tweaked his wrist this year and is there any guarantee Zoubek can stay on the floor for a long time? Also Duke rarely has an answer if they go cold from the outside. The biggest block in recent years and this year are athletic ball handlers. Duke's agressive defensive style often is trumped by ball quickness and athleticism. Georgia Tech and Georgetown handed Duke defeats away from home using this tactic. With no tournament games in MSG or New Jersey, Duke is going to have to prove itself on a neutral floor. Many are saying it is all about their draw, not exactly the benchmark of a dominating team.
Kansas State (22-4, 9-3)
It goes without saying that K-State is not going to be viewed as a dominant team. Detractors seem to point to their pre-conference schedule which only featured Xavier and Dayton as possible tourney teams. Yet their SOS is ranked 8th. They dropped games in-conference to Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Kansas in an OT crushing loss in the Octagon of Doom. Frank Martin has shaken off the stigma of fill-in coach from when Huggins left and put together a strong squad. There is no doubt the man can recruit, but now his team's success is becoming more of the story than him...or his suits. Not surprisingly Martin wants his boys to play up-tempo and it is very hard to blow through good teams playing that way unless they are very disciplined and experienced. They sit at 8th in scoring average, but they also commit 15.2 turnovers per game and shoot a paltry 65.8% from the FT line. Guards Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente combine for almost 35 ppg.
K-State sits in 2 seed territory right now and has supplanted Texas as the 2nd best team in the Big 12 but this team is not battle tested in March and it is going to be a hit or miss affair for them that will not bring back memories of the great Arkansas teams of '94,'95.
Purdue (23-3,11-3)
Is this the year Purdue stops being Purdon't?(/shows self out, /realizes no one else is here to write post and lets self back in) Seriously though, how many times has Purdue come close to the Final Four in the modern era only to fall short. Their last Final Four was in 1980 and since then it has been a lot of seasons cut short. Matt Painter has taken the torch and carried it well for Gene Keady. Ward "Piggy" Lambert would be proud. Purdue boasts a 3-headed monster of Moore, Hummel, and Johnson. They have the experience but after these three the production slopes off.
The Boilermakers won their first 14 games which included a 14 point win over West Virginia. They then lost 3 in a row to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Northwestern. Since then they have bounced back and won their last 9. They have done it with defense, holding all opponents but one under 66 points in the last month. Purdue is holding opposing shooters to 40% from the field and forcing nearly 16 turnovers per contest. Concern comes in for their 3-point shooting which is only 32.4%. Another worrisome stat is the fact that they have been outrebounded for the season. Hummel has shown he is a streaky shooter from deep, and I don't think Purdue runs away from anyone in the brackets. Plus, the pressure to break a reputation for failing to get to the Final Four almost always results in a team struggling with, not killshotting their opponents.
Syracuse (25-2,12-2)
People thought Syracuse was good last year and they were, but this year's team has thrived with the addition of Wesley Johnson following the subtraction of Flynn, Harris and Devendorf. Andy Rautins is the real catalyst behind the team. His shooting has always been there but his defense and passing ability this year has filled the void left by Flynn. Rautins is not the athletic driver Flynn was but makes up for it with this shooting. The Cuse have an inside presence as well as the outside threat with Onuaku and Jackson. Yet Johnson leads the team in rebounds which is always a challenge in the 2-3 zone.
What is holding Syracuse back from that killshot characteristic is their inability to consistently finish off opponents. Jim Boeheim said recently his team was not playing extraordinarily well and many scoffed since they only had one loss going into last weekend, but they were not putting the other team away. A lot of their games look closer than indicated. UConn and Georgetown both mounted big comebacks on them and to their credit the Orange won, but doing that in the tournament can lead to getting upset. They turn it over 15.6 times a game and shoot 67.1% from the stripe. However, they are 38.2 percent from deep and Johnson has a sweet stroke from beyond the arc. Johnson has one of those shots that always looks like it has a chance to go in. Syracuse will be favored in each of its regional games, but if they let teams hang around, foul trouble and their poor free-throw shooting could come end it for them. They normally start playing their best at the end of the season so the game upcoming versus Nova and the Big East tourney should be good indicators of them taking the next step.
Kentucky (26-1, 11-1)
Kentucky has all the makings of a team that could run through the brackets like a hot knife through butter. They are not as talented as the '96 squad(but who is) but they have the ability to put the most athletic and talented line-up on the floor. John Wall is tremendous, if unpolished and Demarcus Cousins is an absolute beast on the boards. Lost in this shuffle is Patrick Patterson, who could have been drafted last year.
As expected with new freshman talent and a new head coach, Kentucky's play has been a bit erratic at times. Wall and Cousins have shown the propensity to get rattled during games. Calipari claims he allows the give and take with him, but Cousins has been giving to other players and officials. Teams are going to try to exploit this in the tourney. The freshman are also going to have to adjust to playing much more games and Calipari's old friend, free-throw shooting(sensing a trend? a lot of these teams are not even close to 70%) has returned again. His Memphis team and star freshman Derrick Rose missed critical free-throws a few years ago in the tournament which costs them a title. John Wall has been struggling from the line late in games this year. The Wildcats have had to hold on lately in the SEC but they have time to get their team back and clicking. There are just too many variables for me to take UK as a team that will crush opponents once they get past the second round.
Kansas (27-1, 13-0)
Kansas is the most complete team in the country to me. They have great guard play with Sheron Collins. They have athletic scorers in Henry and Morris. They have a dominant big man in Aldrich(averaging a double-double). They have solid role-players in Taylor, the other Morris, and Morningstar. They shoot just under 70% from the line and 40% from 3. They are shooting 48.8%(!) from the field while their opponents shoot 36.9%. Their average scoring margin is 19 points. Bill Self is no longer an "almost" coach. When his Jayhawk team almost choked away a regional final against Davidson two years ago, you could see Self was coaching tight. Once the final buzzer sounded Self collapsed to the floor, all the weight taken off. Since then he has been coaching like he is playing with house money and he is. This led him to winning coach of the year last year and a Sweet 16 appearance that went down to the wire with Michigan State. Self is going into this tournament with the experience under his belt and without the pressure of getting over the hump.
Kansas has blown the doors off most of their opponents and also won the few tight games they have had. Their one slip-up was at Tennessee and if not for that everyone would be asking if the Jayhawks could make a run at going undefeated. They may be happier not having that pressure on them. Right now I would have to say that Kansas is the team to beat because they have shown throughout the year that they have ability get up on quality opponents and keep them down. The Jayhawks may be the only team this year that has that killshot ability.
Tuesday, February 23
Gearing Up For The NCAA Tournament
Selection Sunday is a mere 19 days away and while we do not yet know the match-ups, it is never too early to start speculating on what the madness will bring. Today we look toward the top. For a variety of factors the teams at the top of the rankings are not inspiring anyone with great confidence right now. While these teams are talented and have impressive records, it is hard to say there are any clearly dominant teams. Last year there were the heavyweights of North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Connecticut as the 1 seeds. Not to mention Memphis, Oklahoma and Michigan State as 2 seeds. This year there are a few teams at the top and everyone else in a indecipherable mix of slightly better than average squads. Looking at the heavy favorites going into the tourney this year I think that most, if not all of them are missing that ability to put away opponents and finish strong.
Friday, February 19
Tiger Does Not Owe Me An Apology, But I Want One Anyway
In a little over an hour Tiger Woods will take the podium and face America. He will face the whole world. He will not face the media. That has the media upset, as if they should expect something more from a person who has up until now picked and chosen when he talks to the media and how much he gives them. Tiger has been prepped by his PR team and will deliver a carefully thought-out and written statement. It will be dissected and examined by all forms of media outlets: network and 24 hour news, blogs, major sports networks/websites, and certainly by the general public.
We have generally stayed away from all Tiger talk on our blog, even before the Thanksgiving incident up until now. We did do one post on how Tiger apparently thought tipping was for the birds, and referenced his skill on the golf course. Other than that, we left it up to others to make judgments about what drives Tiger, how good he really is, or what went on in his personal life. However, everyone and their mother has an opinion on this topic. Seriously, we all have thoughts on what Tiger did and what he should do.
Wednesday, February 17
Duke Does Not Respect The "Littleuns"
During the Blue Devils 81-74 victory over Miami tonight, dissension occured in the new Castle Rock, also known as the Bank United Center. While Jon Scheyer was attempting free-throws Coach K alerted the refs to a noise in the stands. It turns out it was a student blowing into a conch shell. The refs, ever eager to please the Rat King, removed the conch from the student's possession. It is this kind of blatant disregard for the order of the tribe that led to Piggy's downfall. Respect the conch people!
[UPDATE: Video of the incident!!!]
Monday, February 15
How Wrong(and Right) Were We: 2009 NFL Season
Another season in the books and while most people gloss over their NFL predictions for this year, we always try to own up to how (in)accurate our predictions are. Trying to nail down where teams will land, especially in the NFL is folly to being with. The season is such a long grind with so many variables no one should live and die with the predictions unless you're rolling into Vegas in July. So as we often try to do, we examine how my picks did for the season.
Friday, February 12
Real Men Don't Taunt, But This May Take It Too Far
Yes, football season is over but the news never stops! We will get into basketball soon enough but a quick story on a possible rules change in college football. After a season in which refs were already forced to make game-changing judgment decisions on penalties for celebration, in 2011 could have even more significant impact on the outcome of games.
The all-powerful Football Rules Committee has endorsed a proposal that would penalize unsportsmanlike conduct as a live-ball foul. In other words, if you break a 90-yard kickoff return you better not salute the band, student section, or your Aunt Prudence or you get flagged. The biggest thing about this rule change would mean that the penalty would not simply be enforced on the kick-off, it would be marked off from where you taunted and the touchdown would be nullified.
The chair of this committee is former Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, who is now the school's athletic director. Bellotti said:
“Our committee firmly believes in the team concept of college football,” said Mike Bellotti, chair of the committee and athletics director at Oregon. “Taunting and prolonged individual acts have no place in our game, and our officials have generally handled these rules well. This is just another step in maintaining our game’s image and reflecting the ideals of the NCAA overall.”
I get the whole believing in the team concept (which has nothing to do with celebrating a score in my opinion) but saying that officials handle these calls "generally well" is a double talk way of saying it is not an exact science. If the rule is enacted these refs will have to make instant in-game decisions on whether a player being happy for getting to the endzone is worthy of taking that 6 points off the board. With the officiating we have had, particularly in the SEC and ACC, we do not want refs to have that power. The Georgia/LSU debacle was bad enough, but not it adds another element that fans really don't care about. Pardon me for dusting off the old "football is played with emotion" line but it is true, these games are hyped up so much by fans, media, and coaches, only taunts and celebrations way out of line need to be penalized. It was not too long ago when NCAA football put forth what was known as "The Miami Rule" to eliminate displays after a touchdown. It snowballed into what we have today where a simple high five, body bump or stare into the thrnong of thousands in the stadium can result in a 15-yard penalty.
The idea sounds great while you are in a NCAA boardroom and you want to put forth the perception that you are promoting good sportsmanship but the bottom line is that what has brought your sport billions and billions of dollars over the years has been the element of showmanship. Asking to keep these displays from being egregious is important but the game is not played without emotion, especially at the highest levels. Even Tim Tebow, the example of the highest level of student-athlete can take it too far once in awhile.
Football taunting rule could be tougher by 2011 [NCAA.org]
Monday, February 8
No More Football
"Be on your guard, there are slower and fouler things than the WNBA in the sports places of the world."
I feel you Gandalf. Today this is plenty of banter about the game from last night, but soon it will diminish and the reality sets in; no meaningful games until the end of August. Sure, there will be trade talks, spring practice, OTAs, the draft, labor disputes(fun times!), and predictions to be made but ultimately no contests on the field.
Congrats to the Saints, mostly for proving me a Nostrodamus for picking them to win it all.
Sunday, February 7
Super Bowl Countdown #1: Super Bowl XXXII
During the two weeks preceding the Super Bowl, I will be counting down the best Super Bowls I have witnessed in my lifetime, starting in 1988. I created a ranking system and will go game by game reliving each edition until the top Super Bowl is listed.
Just hours before the big game, the 44th Super Bowl, we come to number 1 in my countdown of Super Bowls I have seen in my lifetime. It has been a great trip down memory lane to review all these Super Bowls. I have spent even more time reading and reminiscing and watching video than I have typing out the memories on here. If you follow sports with the zealous nature that I do, every sports memory is associated with a point in your life. It is great to take perspective on it. The best Super Bowl I have seen with all factors concerned was Super Bowl 32 in San Diego. John Elway, Brett Favre and two great teams battled to the end to decide tie championship.
Super Bowl Countdown #2: Super Bowl XXIII
During the two weeks preceding the Super Bowl, I will be counting down the best Super Bowls I have witnessed in my lifetime, starting in 1988. I created a ranking system and will go game by game reliving each edition until the top Super Bowl is listed.
The only Super Bowl in which the 49ers were pushed to the brink, it turned out to be a classic that is often mentioned 21 years later. In a rematch from 7 years earlier, the was a defensive battle until the final minutes. Joe Montana sealed his legacy with the final drive with his game-winning pass and his spotting of John Candy in the final drive. Super Bowl #2 on the list after the break.
Super Bowl Countdown #3: Super Bowl XXXVIII
During the two weeks preceding the Super Bowl, I will be counting down the best Super Bowls I have witnessed in my lifetime, starting in 1988. I created a ranking system and will go game by game reliving each edition until the top Super Bowl is listed.
Sometimes the greatest contest come from great forces that are unknown. The Carolina Panthers are one of the least known entities in the NFL. People know they exist, but most of their knowledge comes from a stray highlight or what someone in the media blurbed about them. The Panthers have only been in existence for 15 years, but in that time they have reached the NFC Championship Game 3 times and the Super Bowl once. The Patriots entered the game winners of 14 straight and were now seen as the rising power in the NFL. Thus they were favored by a touchdown. Yet, on the biggest stage and for a brief moment in time the country knew the kind of heart, passion and drive the Panthers had. They fell short, but along with New England gave football one of it's most frantic, best Super Bowls ever. The Heater in Houston is at #3.
Super Bowl Countdown #4: Super Bowl XLIII
During the two weeks preceding the Super Bowl, I will be counting down the best Super Bowls I have witnessed in my lifetime, starting in 1988. I created a ranking system and will go game by game reliving each edition until the top Super Bowl is listed.
Seems like only last Super Bowl this great game took place. Wait, what? This could easily be number 1 on a Super Bowl list and probably will be on some peoples. The game had its fair share of memorable plays, came down to one last drive and a catch for the ages. A Tantalizing Tampa Treat helps us wind down our countdown.
Super Bowl Countdown #5: XXXVI
During the two weeks preceding the Super Bowl, I will be counting down the best Super Bowls I have witnessed in my lifetime, starting in 1988. I created a ranking system and will go game by game reliving each edition until the top Super Bowl is listed.
In a miraculous, improbable, and all together insane season, the Patriots pulled off an upset that only the Jets in '69 and the Giants in '08 against the Pats themselves would equal. As 14 point underdogs, not many were giving a team with a team full of no-names with a first-year QB a chance against the league's MVP at quarterback and the "Greatest Show on Turf". That's why they playing and that's when it was the time for a New Era Born in New Orleans.
Super Bowl Countdown #6: Super Bowl XXV
During the two weeks preceding the Super Bowl, I will be counting down the best Super Bowls I have witnessed in my lifetime, starting in 1988. I created a ranking system and will go game by game reliving each edition until the top Super Bowl is listed.
With all the aspects of the game of American football that have evolved over the past couple decades, there remains one truth for all teams: your entire season can rest on one kick. This Super Bowl in Tampa was regarded by many as the best chance for the Buffalo Bills to capture a championship. They were favored by 7 points but standing in their way was Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick. The Giants concocted a gameplan that limited the effectiveness of the Bills superior offense and were able to survive a last second kick to to take the Tampa Timestopper.
Saturday, February 6
Super Bowl Countdown #7: Super Bowl XXXIV
During the two weeks preceding the Super Bowl, I will be counting down the best Super Bowls I have witnessed in my lifetime, starting in 1988. I created a ranking system and will go game by game reliving each edition until the top Super Bowl is listed.
Enter the game of inches cliche here. Super Bowl 34 came down to 36 of them. Many hold this Super Bowl at the top of their lists, but despite the crazy ending I do not think it warrants the tag. It is my #7 though and a terrific game out of what many thought were "non-sexy" franchises. Kurt Warner, who has recently announced his retirement, made an improbable rise to stardom for leading his team to the title. Georgia is on my 1-yard line next.
