How Wrong Were We: 2010 MLB Season

Here at ASD we like to make predictions just as any sports fans. We also like to take a moment at the conclusion of each season and look back on how wrong we were about our prognostications. Today, the Giants are the World Series champions. If you didn't know that Jerome Bettis is from Detroit then you might be unaware that the Giants won their first World Series since 1954 and the first in San Francisco. Tim Lincecum pitched a gem and Edgar Renteria won MVP on the strength of his game-winning hit. I've seen that somewhere before.

I predicted a BCS matchup between the Yankees and Phillies this year but apparently there is a playoff in baseball.

NL (complete picks here)

Phillies over Brewers(Wild Card winners)
Cardinals over Rockies

NLCS
Phillies over Cardinals

Not sure what I was thinking with the Brewers there. I expected the Rockies to make their traditional August/September run and they did but not enought to overtake the Giants or Padres. Watch me kind of give the Giants props but completely miss on the big picture:

The additions of DeRosa and Huff are supposed to bolster the Sandoval-led line-up but no one is holding their breath no that one.

And of course, my big bust was having the Padres picked last in this division but I know I wasn't the only one. However, my Mets analysis was spot, fucking on:

I am merely going to sit back and watch the team blow leads, make hideous errors, fail to hit HRs in their own park, and Johan to break down. Then when the smoke clears hopefully Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel will be gone and the team can start from scratch....again.

Good luck Sandy Alderson.

AL (all the picks here)

My AL predictions worked out a lot better. I did pick the Yankees to take the east and the Rays wildcard but that was reversed. I did get all four playoff teams right.

AL Playoffs

Yankees over Twins(again)
Rangers over Rays

ALCS
Yankees over Rangers

World Series
Phillies over Yankees

I was more than happy to have the Rangers prove me wrong. I did think they had a winning formula though:

But with Nolan Ryan calling out pitchers and Ron Washington doing lines who knows what can happen!

Congrats to the Giants, even Barry Bonds is happy for you. Lincecum and his dong hat can ride off into the sunset. 2010 MLB Season, FIN.



schlong on a hat via

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Sometimes Life Isn't Fair

Aside from Duke fans, everyone was unhappy with last night's outcome. However, while I count myself as one who was pulling against the Devils, Duke earned this title. People can talk about how the heavyweights were down this year or how Duke had an easy run, the bottom line is that they are still standing after the smoke is clear. They earned the belt. I thought the game was surprisingly well officiated. Once again the production from CBS was horrid. Nantz and Kellog are all over the place. I enjoyed Clark behind the desk but not on game commentary. Replays were no where to be found on key fouls. We already knew Howard was going to get in foul trouble. Butler just did not knock down enough of those open shots. Their halfcourt defense was again spectacular. Even with their field goal troubles the Bulldogs had two shots to win, and came up painfully short. I commend Gordon Hayward and above all Brad Stevens for their accomplishment. I was off my couch jumping on that last Hayward halfcourt heave, it looked like it was good off the glass on my TV. But alas it was not to be, sometimes the underdog everyone is pulling for does not win. I half-expected David Anspaugh to run out onto the court and tell the players to run it again until Hayward made the shot. The Blue Devils are the champs, for better or worse, that is what makes this tournament great; you are not always expecting or happy of the result. There is much random chance, just like life. If life were like the BCS, we could manipulate all our circumstances to form our best outcomes. A pleasant notion but one that would ultimately fail like when the machines tried to make the Matrix a paradise where all their humans had their desires come true. Millions of crops were lost.

I still prefer the basketball side of things because sometimes there is no clear way to determine who is the best team. Football still has no set criteria. In the NCAA tournament, you have to play whoever is in your bracket and win. No polls, no margin of victory, no bias toward the big 6 conference (well, maybe just a little). It's a cruel reality for the anti-Duke segment, but it is reality. Coach K has one for the pinky, Zoubek was a difference maker, and Wojo finally has that elusive ring. Now to the harsh reality of my tournament picks and it is not pretty, "How Wrong Were We": 2010 NCAA Tournament edition.

Midwest Region: 9/15
South Region: 4/15 (I stand by my Robert Morris pick! They got hosed by the officiating.)
West Region: 7/15
East Region: 8/15

My Final Four: Kansas (uggg), Syracuse (oops), Duke (squirrel finds nut), New Mexico (why did I ever trust Alford?). I had Kansas beating Duke in the finals.

So out of a possible 63 games, excluding the opening round game (which I got wrong), I got 29 right. That is 46%. I also had Butler losing to UTEP in the first round. Overall a horrible state of affairs for my prediction skills.

pic via

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How Wrong(and Right) Were We: 2009 NFL Season

Another season in the books and while most people gloss over their NFL predictions for this year, we always try to own up to how (in)accurate our predictions are. Trying to nail down where teams will land, especially in the NFL is folly to being with. The season is such a long grind with so many variables no one should live and die with the predictions unless you're rolling into Vegas in July. So as we often try to do, we examine how my picks did for the season.

AFC East

New England
Miami
NY Jets
Buffalo

I still feel good about this order, even though the Jets and Dolphins were switched, I was not off by much and without the Colts bitching out in week 16, the Jets never sniff the playoffs.

AFC North

Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Cleveland

Pittsburgh and Cincy ended up flip-flopped but the Bengals played like a 3rd place division team in their playoff game.

AFC South

Houston
Titans
Colts
Jaguars

Show yourselves people, I wasn't the only one riding high on the Texans. No one saw what happened in Tennessee coming, but I do admit my big faux pas of all of my 2009 predictions was that the Colts would not make the playoffs. I underestimated Manning's ability to implant the offense into the new receiver's head, Johnny Mnemonic style.



How the academy passed on this performance is beyond me.

AFC West

San Diego
Kansas City
Denver
Oakland

Definitely was too high on the Chiefs, but I knew the Broncos would collapse, I just thought it would start week 1 instead of week 9.

NFC East

New York
Philadelphia
Washington
Dallas


Dallas was my big miss in the NFC. The Giants were correctly called frauds by Catfish in the early weeks of the season, while I was sitting back and thinking I had called it perfectly.

AFC North

Green Bay
Minnesota
Chicago
Detroit

While many had Chicago making the playoffs, I was able to sense the Cutlerplosion. I did not correctly pin the Vikings getting the number 2 seed.

NFC South

New Orleans
Atlanta
Carolina
Tampa Bay

My first perfect division yet.

NFC West

Seattle
Arizona
San Francisco
St. Louis

I lifted up the Seabirds a little too high. San Francisco is the Houston of the NFC. They have been a darkhorse pick for a playoff team for a few years now but have yet to make it. I saw San Fran for what they were yet put so much faith in Houston.

Things I wrote that have me nodding:

The Patriots will not and cannot be as dominating as they were two seasons ago. First off, they are replacing 6 starters on defense that had years of experience in the league and under Belichick's system.

This pick is made mostly due to what Rex Ryan will being to the Jets' defense. Besides being a great defensive mind, Ryan gets players excited to play defense for him and they believe that they can beat anybody.

There is no reason for me to believe the Browns are going to turn the corner this year.... I can honestly see them going 1-5 in the division.[They did!]

Everyone is very high on the Eagles this year, which makes me cautious. I personally think that Vick will have very little impact on the field this year barring injury. The offense has a lot to like with McNabb at QB, Jackson and Maclin at WR, and the Westbrook/McCoy combo at RB. It could be the defense that struggles for the Eagles.

Sean Payton and Drew Brees will continue to get only more efficient and imaginative on offense while the defense will be the big hurdle for this team to overcome. Making Pierre Thomas the full-time RB and making Reggie Bush the slot/wildcard guy will help the offense tremendously. While my gut misleads me more than not, I think this will be a special year in New Orleans. Be prepared to see a lot of Katrina montages.

I expect the Falcons to come back down to earth a bit this year.

It will be tough to swallow for Panther fans after last year's success but it appears to be a season hovering around .500 in Carolina.

The Niners are moving in the right direction and despite Catfish pegging them as a surprise playoff team this year I think they are a year away. That is a year away if they finally decide to grab a decent quarterback.

Things I wrote that have me facepalming:

The offense should be firing on all cylinders once again with Brady and the Pats should be able to attain 12 wins.

With the defense expected to be every bit as staunch as it was and the offense continuing to evolve in the passing game, Pittsburgh once again claims the division and most likely the number one seed in the AFC.

The enigma that is VY will pine for playing time but unless an injury happens I doubt he will ever see the field as a starter for Tennessee.

...I just think the Colts have lost their edge. That is not to say that they are not a good football team. 9 or 10 wins is a possibility but for the first time since 2001, the team will miss the playoffs.

I see no improvement for this team from last year while every other team in the division has gotten better. Roy Williams is going to have to show me something before I grant him status as a great wide receiver. Tony Romo got a lot of fan fair when he came on the scene, but that was years ago and he still has not limited his mistakes.

The Cardinals will not be as "great" as they were last year and Seattle once again wins the division.

My playoff picks:

AFC Wildcard Round
Ravens over Texans
Titans over Chargers

Divisional Round
Patriots over Ravens
Titans over Steelers

AFC Championship
Patriots over Titans


NFC Wildcard Round
Vikings over Seahawks
Packers over Eagles

Divsional Round
Saints over Vikings
Giants over Packers

NFC Championship
Saints over Giants

SUPER BOWL
Saints over Patriots

I think the Saints winning the Super Bowl supersedes a lot of the wrong picks I made. That may be overcompensation in my mind but if all that matters to the teams is who wins the Super Bowl, then picking the winner correctly has to count for something. So it turns out I was more right than wrong this year in the NFL but I won't let it go to my head.

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How Wrong Was I: NBA Predictions

Two of these posts in 24 hours can't be good for the ego, especially given my performance in picking the Tourney. There's still two days remaining in the NBA season, but with all of the playoff spots locked in, it's time to take a look back. The rookie of the year award hasn't been given out, but my Eric Gordon prediction died the day he shook hands with Mike Dunleavy.

I hit on 50% of my stars on the move predictions (Iverson, Marion, and Randolph), and feel if it wasn't for the economy Carter could've been dealt as well. Odom and Bibby, yeah not so much.

Starting in the East, I called six of the eight playoff teams (wee!), missing on the Bobogatos and leaving out the Bulls (damn that Salmons, Miller trade) and the Heat. Out west I was strug-a-ling, predicting both the Suns and Clippers to make the post-season, with Denver and Dallas missing out. That's why George Karl should be coach of the year and I will win nothing.

Highlights

"Be prepared for another round of LeBron v. Kobe debates, as the King wins his first MVP." Even when I wrote that, I had no idea the force that LBJ would become on both ends of the floor.

"If [Joe Dumars] doesn't believe they're a championship contender, look for one of the mainstays to possibly be on the move (most likely Sheed)." Highlight all the way up until I decreed Detroit had issued notice to the East.

"With no Monta Ellis for most of the first half and an apparently dissatisfied Al Harrington, Nellie's final year will be marked with more drama than wins." The fact this is number three should tell you how well this went.

Lowlights

"DWade can't carry a team for 82 games (like he did in the Olympics)." Apparently, he didn't get the memo.

"With so many teams in the west getting better, [the Denver Nuggets] are one of the few distinctly getting worse." Straight shooting like Gana Diop at the foul line.

" Although they have added Ricky Davis, this [Clipper] team has the energy and ability to cause trouble for a lot of teams." Proving not even the rules of math apply in Clipperland, 1 dumb coach > 4 very talented players.

Prediction I'm pinning all my hopes on

"At the end of the year, [the Lakers] will be depending on the same bench guys to come through in the playoffs, and there's no reason to think they will step up this year."

Finals Prediction I hope will salvage my preview, much like march madness, but in which I have zero confidence

Cavs over Rockets

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How Wrong Were We: NCAA Tourney Picks

The memory of Detroit is fading away for fans of teams other than North Carolina. A lot of people are throwing out the boring card for this year's tourney but saying that mainly because of lack of upsets and buzzer-beaters. To me, those people are instant-gratification whores, but there is no arguing the Final Four except for the first half of UConn-MSU was a snoozer. Catfish and I went toe-to-toe with our tournament picks in a pick-counterpick and while we were both atrocious with the exception of Catfish correctly picking UNC, one of us has to ermerge the winner.

Looking up at the big scoreboard:

Cleet: 42/63
Catfish: 37/63

However, I was 0 for the Final Four. I had Carolina getting there but losing to Pitt, while Catfish had Carolina winning it all...even if it was over Purdue. I think based on that, I am willing to concede the victory to Catfish.

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How Wrong Were We: The 2008 NFL Season

Here at ASD the loyal readers (all 4 of you) know that we like to be held accountable for how off our predictions are. It's acutally enjoyable for us to look back on what he hit on and what me missed when it comes to a picking games. Before this year's NFL season began Catfish offered up his predictions for the upcoming season and since we are doing this before the Super Bowl, you can already guess his picks were not that dead on but he did get a few right and he opened with a pretty prophetic statement:

"...all it takes is a blown ACL, a nagging hamstring, or one sultry succubus and all my plans are foiled."

See how he did after the break.

Here is a rundown of Cat's picks with my not so harsh commentary:

AFC East (Teams shown in order of projected finish)
NE Patriots - 16-0 last season, they've earned the easiest schedule
NY Jets - Spent the money to be a wildcard team, will their pickups be worth more than the loss of Johnathan Vilma?
Buffalo Bills - Take the under, every week.
Miami Dolphins - 1st round pick on a burner, pickup a QB that can't throw further than 15 yards. Magic.

Ha!, right off the bat, he had Miami to finish last, but who didn't have the Pats winning this division.

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers - Purely on the strength of Hines Ward being the greatest blocking WR in the history of football. Ever. Period.
Baltimore Ravens - The Joe Flacco / Ray Rice era has begun.
Cleveland Browns - Braylon Edwards, the highest scoring WR in fantasy football, but can the defense stop anyone?
Cincinnati Bengals - Got 85 problems, but Tatum Bell aint one

You were right! Hines Ward is the greatest and he led his team to the division and beyond! He had some great blocks this year, just ask Keith Rivers.


AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars - This bandwagon is getting a little too full for my liking
Indianapolis Colts - The window for Peyton to be able to carry a team is closing starting this year.
Houston Texans - Opportunistic D, should see Super Mario's Sack total rise. Need Andre Johnson to play a full year, before I push them for the playoffs.
Tennessee Titans - This week Norm Chow showed what a great offensive coordinator he is, and he couldn't make it work with VY.

Faith in the Jags was not yours alone Catfish. Looks like you were right on VY but you forgot about Kerry Collins.

AFC West
San Diego Chargers - Merriman could sit and they'd still be here.
Oakland Raiders - JeMarcus has to have a good year, before he Culpeppers on us, right?
Denver Broncos - Mike Shannahan tans so much his skin has become Teflon, it's the only possible reason why he has avoided any speculation about his job security.
Kansas City Chiefs - They play to win the games, but not this year.

Nice, Merriman did sit and they were there!

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - If Romo fails this season, it won't be crying TO talking about him.
Philadelphia Eagles - Would love to slot the 1, will anyone complete a pass against them this year? Just don't feel comfortable to bet on DNabb5 and BWest to make it through a whole season, healthy.
New York Giants - They were supposed to lose the Super Bowl, so the loser curse still works.
Washington Redskins - Porn stars don't win Oscars, and Zorn stars don't make playoffs.

That Zorn line was golden, and right. Romo failed and he is getting slammed.

NFC North
Minnesota Vikings - Please AP stay on the field.
Green Bay Packers - Talented D leads the way.
Detroit Lions - Having two great WRs, they benefit from Martz leaving.
Chicago Bears - The Neck Beard doesn't make it past six games. Then it's return of the King.

AP was on the field and you nailed another one but your neckbeard prediction was off. He did not make it past his sixth bottle.

NFC South
Carolina Panthers - A very capable offense, largely overlooked. Will the real Pepp please return to the field?
NO Saints - Still not enough weapons to make Bush an effective RB.
TB Buccaneers - Too many old guys, too many young guys. Wearing the wheels off your draft picks will do this to a team.
Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan should pull a Mariah Carey and get his legs insured.

Right again on the winner, wrong again on second place.

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers - The footing is not good.
Seattle Seahawks - Questions at RB and WR, and they still get defaulted to this spot.
Arizona Cardinals - Want to pick them to win, but I don't have the marbles.
St. Louis Rams - Steven Jackson is back, but does it really matter?

You have no marbles!

Playoffs
Round 1
Jacksonville over New York Jets
Indianapolis over San Diego
Philly over Minnesota
New Orleans over 49ers

Philly did beat Minnesota, and well, at least Indy played San Diego.

Round 2
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
New England over Indianapolis
Carolina over New Orleans
Philadelphia over Dallas

Here's where things turned dicey.

Division Championship
Jacksonville over New England
Carolina over Philadelphia

You're lack of faith in Reid and McNabb was well placed.

Super Bowl
Carolina over Jacksonville

Not while John Fox is at the helm, that's right I said it.

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How Wrong Were We: The 2008 College Football Season

While taking a look at how bad we were at picking bowls so far, I decided to delve into the archives to see how far off our college football season predictions were. In many cases, they were not close, including my choice of the Bulldogs winning it all. See the rest of the folly after the break.

The ACC

My pick for ACC Championship game match-up:
Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech
My pick for ACC Champion: Wake

I was not too far off here, except it was BC that won the Atlantic and fell to VT in the title game. My best call of the year may be my spotting of Clemson as a phony, but then again I picked Cullen Harper as my player to watch.

The SEC

Catfish's pick for SEC Championship game match-up:
Georgia vs. LSU
Catfish's pick for SEC Champion: Georgia

I would have picked the same as Cat here but it seems we both had misplaced faith in Georgia and not enough in Bama.

The Big XII

My pick for Big XII Championship game match-up:
Missouri vs. Oklahoma
My pick for Big XII Champion: Missouri

Right title game, very wrong result.

The Big East

My pick for Big East Champion: West Virginia

Pat White is a great college quarterback and seems to be an even better human being. West Virgnia was in the title conversation into the final weeks, but Cincy stole the show.

The Pac Ten

My pick for Pac Ten champion: USC

This pick was automatic but was almost wrong due to Oregon State's great run. I picked Washington to be below expectations, nice, but wait, I had Washington State above...dammit.

The Big Ten

Catfish's pick for Big Ten champion: Ohio State

I cannot say I am upset for Catfish missing on this one.

BCS

My BCS bowl predictios:
Rose Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Ohio State

Orange Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Wake Forest

Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs. West Virginia

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
BYU vs. Missouri

BCS National Championship
USC vs. Georgia

National Champion: Georgia

The Wisconsin and Auburn choices make me cringe. You cannot blame anyone for a USC pick considering how they did, but Utah was the correct BCS busting pick, and the Orange Bowl match-up was correct in its lack on intrigue. Overall not as bad as I thought.

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