Tuesday, January 13

Two Silver Linings for Panthers Fans?

The guys at FootballOutsiders have statistically proven the Curse of 370. As they put it, "A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson." The good news for Panther fans, the only back to have more than 370 this season was Atlanta's Michael Turner. With Blue Suede only getting better, a drop in production from Turner would be a welcome surprise. As FO describes it, "[t]he average running back with 370 or more regular-season carries, or 390 including the postseason, will see their rushing yardage decline by 35 percent, and their yards per carry decline by eight percent." According to these estimations, Turner will have approximately 1100 yards at just over 4.1 yards per carry. The entire NFC would gladly welcome that.

As for the other silver lining, the primary beast of burden in the backfield for the Panthers, DeAngelo Williams had only 273 carries and thanks to the abandonment of the run during the brief stay in the playoffs, he did not top 300, which is also associated with a drop off the following season. Technically, it's just the regular season, but hey I'm trying here. To read more about the Curse of 370, check out this article at FootballOutsiders.

No comments: